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strategys and downfalls

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strategys and downfalls - Sat Mar 31, 2012, 08:53 AM
(#1)
66theOnLYoNe's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 25
well ive been doing alot o studying on strategys such as playing the odds, playing position and starting hands ive downloaded starting hand charts and other tosh in general.

Now there all sound in priciple but have nothing on common sense. today ive played in mtt's on various sites including poker stars and this is what ive found.

Hand example 1.
AA

prelop in early position i chuck in a raise 4 times the big blind. everyone folded up to the small blind who called the big blind raised and so did the button. my choices now were call or raise all in or fold. i folded, wise choice as the big blind had jacks and hit trips. Now if id have followed the strategy guides id of been out first hand of tourney

Hand example 2.
J7

the stragey guides all point toward folding this in all positions but i called and hit full house on the flop.

i have many other examples and they all have similart results. From now on im going to use gut feeling and common sence becuase at the end of the day if you have to follow other peoples strategys your playing there game and not your own and that will be many aspiring players downfall.

 
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Sat Mar 31, 2012, 10:47 AM
(#2)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
I definitely don't like the fold with the aces. There are a lot of loose players ready to get it in with pretty much any ace, any king or any pocket pair at the early stages of a tournament. Sure, you may have lost THIS hand, but "gut feeling" is an illusion in these cases and can't predict the cards that are going to hit. An early triple up is worth its weight in gold if you can play a large stack properly. Don't know about the J7 hand though, since there's no other info than the actual cards.

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Sat Mar 31, 2012, 11:47 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
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I'm shoving the AA hand and mucking J7. Yes, the J7, you got lucky, but that will not be a winning play in the long run. With AA, unless it's a satellite and I've already got enough chips to get the ticket, I'm NEVER folding AA preflop.

John (JWK24)


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Sun Apr 01, 2012, 03:31 AM
(#4)
66theOnLYoNe's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
I definitely don't like the fold with the aces. There are a lot of loose players ready to get it in with pretty much any ace, any king or any pocket pair at the early stages of a tournament. Sure, you may have lost THIS hand, but "gut feeling" is an illusion in these cases and can't predict the cards that are going to hit. An early triple up is worth its weight in gold if you can play a large stack properly. Don't know about the J7 hand though, since there's no other info than the actual cards.

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No one likes to fold with aces its like the power trip your local securtiy gaurd gets from his uniform. as for illusion gut feeling counts for alot in life and so shouldnt be dismissed in poker how many times have you thought this guys on a draw called only to see and be right on your judgement ??? im not saying im nostradamus but if the feelings right. I folded many hands where ive had gut feeling its guna flop big and its flopped big and im not talking about powerful hands only im talking stuff like 39o and hitting houses on the flop(and other made hands) .

the J7 speaks for itself it never got past the flop i put a raise of 4 big blinds which were at 20 and every one folded there were four other people in the hand. i feel my mistake in this hand was playing too aggressive not the cards i played.
 
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Sun Apr 01, 2012, 05:55 AM
(#5)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by 66theOnLYoNe View Post
how many times have you thought this guys on a draw called only to see and be right on your judgement ???
That's a different thing, because you already have information such as his betting line and timing tells. That's not really an illusion, because your gut feeling (or rather your subconcious) compares it to previous experiences and general knowledge about similar situations. But when no cards have been dealt yet, there's absolutely no way to "feel" what's going to happen. You will be correct every once in a while, but the brain only remembers the times you were right, and you'll begin rationalizing that you "had a feeling". Those are the ones I want at my table, because they are diluted and it ends up costing them a lot of money, no matter how convinced they are that they're right.

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Sun Apr 01, 2012, 07:04 AM
(#6)
PinoyVictim's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 246
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
That's a different thing, because you already have information such as his betting line and timing tells. That's not really an illusion, because your gut feeling (or rather your subconcious) compares it to previous experiences and general knowledge about similar situations. But when no cards have been dealt yet, there's absolutely no way to "feel" what's going to happen. You will be correct every once in a while, but the brain only remembers the times you were right, and you'll begin rationalizing that you "had a feeling". Those are the ones I want at my table, because they are diluted and it ends up costing them a lot of money, no matter how convinced they are that they're right.

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AA is a monster yes. And folding it pre-flop is a bad fold, true.

But he said he was dealt AA as his VERY FIRST hand and in early position at that, raised 4xBB, and was folded down to the button, SB, and BB...

I take it that the button called his 4xBB and the SB called the 4xBB too. The BB reraised his 4xBB. IMHO, with 2 flat-callers to his 4xBB raise and 1 3-BET, calling flat the 3bet would be wrong, as you won't be "shooing away" the 2 other callers. Now shoving after the 3-bet will mean you're gambling and praying that the button and SB folds, so as to give your AA a good fighting chance. But what if, after you shove from early position against a 3-bet and your 2 flat callers from button and SB calls? The BB won't fold his 3-bet for sure! And you're faced with a 4-way all in, making your AA's as just another pair pre-flop...

I mean, the BB knows you have a hand because you raised it from EP 4xBB, and got called by 2 players, so he 3-bet hoping 2-callers will fold, because he wants to flip it with you.

It's very hard to fold AA here yes. But I'm thinking why he folded it. He could've thought that the 2 flat callers got Ax, and the BB's got a made hand like his. So, essentially, making his AA stand almost a 50/50 chance or at best 60/40...

When I played a major high-buyin live tourney here recently, we were in late stages before bubble actually 2 more players out and it's ITM. My stack was a good 25+BB was dealt AA cut-off raised it 2.5xBB, button folded, SB a few chips lesser than mine tanks, and then flat called. BB who's the chip leader has about 40+BB worth of chips (and was running good from start) tanks and min-reraised me, making me tank and call another 1.5xBB and SB flat called again.

Flop comes 7JJ rainbow, SB tanks then checks, BB tanks hard then check. I said pre-flop I will only lead out if the flop is rainbow and doesn't have a straight draw, so I lead out with BB. SB instantly reraised me or 4xBB. The BB tanks, and pushes all-in! Damn! I tank hard and long! I had a feeling that the AA will pop-out as it has been folded down to me, considering that there were at least 3 players out of 5 to my right who are way aggressive and raises with any Ax... So I am pretty sure there's no A dealt before mine, and that the worse is the BB was dealt AJ.

Think think think... 2 more cards, SB is committed, if I win, I will have at least 75BB to 78+BB worth of chips, 1st place pays a cool Php5.89Million!! But I folded face up. SB calls all-in... SB shows KJ, and BB shows QJ... the turn came, and gives an A... river, another A....

My gut feeling was right!!! But my common-sense says I should fold! It was a good fold I said to myself, but bad result. I would've had a good if not almost solid chance of taking it to final table had I listened to my gut feeling, instead, I busted out just after the burst.

So I'd say gut feeling counts.

Last edited by PinoyVictim; Sun Apr 01, 2012 at 07:09 AM..
 
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Sun Apr 01, 2012, 08:21 AM
(#7)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
I absolutely agree that gut feeling counts, just not preflop in the first hand against players who are generally going to get it in with hands such as Axo and 88+ and probably even worse (as I take it that this was a low buy-in multitable tournament). I'd probably make the fold too in your spot, Panicky, but I just can't in the situation that OnlyOne posted.

I know that you can't win a tournament in the early stages but winning that hand would allow you to quickly build your stack by bullying and taking shots with marginal hands as people are ready to stack off with TPTK up to the middle stages and sometimes beyond it. I understand his fold, but I think it's way too expensive in the long run. You're going to get short-stacked and have to flip sooner or later anyways, just that in these situations, you're going to be better than 50/50 most of the time and the pot odds are insane. I'd rather take the shot early and try to stay on top for longer as it gives me a better chance of winning the whole thing.

Don't get me wrong, I can definitely see the arguments for a fold here, but I don't think it's +EV in the long run.

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Sun Apr 01, 2012, 10:19 AM
(#8)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Sometimes you got to gamble, and sometimes you got to deviate from your 'standard play'.... but 66theonlyone, your being 100% results oriented right now. That is a very poor approach to the game of poker and it won't serve you well. Focus on your decision making, considering what you knew at the moment you made the decision. Don't wait for the results then include them in your analysis of your decision. You aren't a psychic(right?) so you can't analyze your decision including the results information, as you did not know the outcome at the time your decision was made!
 
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Sun Apr 01, 2012, 05:31 PM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Ding,ding,ding...we have a winner!!! And it only took until post #8....

66 rockerguy is 1000% correct here on both fronts, you're engaging in classic results oriented thinking here ("I folded AA pre-flop and the guy made a set in the flop so I was right"). This is completely wrong headed thinking. And it will NOT serve you well over the long haul.

Folding AA pre-flop is never going to be anything but a -EV play,unless it's very,very narrow spot with specific considerations (satellites and skill league games at the bubble,both with a stack big enough to "turtle" home). JDean has made the case of early in a super deep stack tourney it COULD be OK. Meh,maybe. I would look at it like this so...if I can't get it in pre with AA then how the Hell can I expect to win anything,ever in this game?

Can't speak to the J7 hand,no specifics as to what it cost you to call and from what position are given.

But folding the AA pre here was poor,and if you let being proven "correct" by the set flopping in this instance influence your play in the future you'll be compounding your mistake.
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 02:37 AM
(#10)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PinoyVictim View Post
When I played a major high-buyin live tourney here recently, we were in late stages before bubble actually 2 more players out and it's ITM. My stack was a good 25+BB was dealt AA cut-off raised it 2.5xBB, button folded, SB a few chips lesser than mine tanks, and then flat called. BB who's the chip leader has about 40+BB worth of chips (and was running good from start) tanks and min-reraised me, making me tank and call another 1.5xBB and SB flat called again.

You did what? You have AA and you call a min 3Bet ???

I wouldn't recommend it, but if there were only two of you in the hand I could possibly understand you doing this to let the guy hang himself on the flop. But with two villains still out there YOU 4BET. And as even a "min 4Bet will account for 40% of your stack, YOU SHOVE!

Absolutely dreadful play
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 03:30 AM
(#11)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
May as well chirp in with some of my thoughts. Ok i personally like gut feelings,gut feelings are mostly based though on facts we pick up at the table,and our mind processes them as a gut feeling in my opinion, knowing without knowing, subconciously picking up reads on our opponents.
I also think there may be some truth, gut feelings about the cards, and i think this too as a reason,example the mind has not seen an 8 for ages, you are dealt a 8, the mind then falses you to believe in a gut feeling that a 8 will come and strike lucky, sometimes this is the case but that is down to coincidence and not some phycic prediction.
However this case is incredibally complex,most forum members totally disagreeing with folding AA preflop, however we are taught that making the correct decission is important,at the time the decission to fold AA was the right decission, any one who played the AA would of lost making the wrong decission,so as some one said to me is the glass half full or half empty?.

Same can be said for the j7 play, at the time the correct decission was made to play the hand.

66 this time yes you well and may of made the correct decission due to a gut feeling,and personally i love gut feelings, however do not let this effect your future decissions,AA get the money in and sometimes better to ignore your gut.
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 03:56 AM
(#12)
66theOnLYoNe's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 25
if you had read my post properly im not bragging about 100% look at it again and it also tells of folding against gut feeling with crap cards and there hitting big and ive folded more against gut feeling.

 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 04:17 AM
(#13)
66theOnLYoNe's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 25
[QUOTE= 66 this time yes you well and may of made the correct decission due to a gut feeling,and personally i love gut feelings, however do not let this effect your future decissions,AA get the money in and sometimes better to ignore your gut.[/QUOTE]

i not only talk of gut feeling but also common sence. common sence accounts fo 90% of my game i dont get gut feeling on all hands or i wouldnt be here id be in the world series sitting pretty at the final table not fighting it out on the cheap seats.
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 04:33 AM
(#14)
66theOnLYoNe's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 25
feskprins your two replys totally contradict each other your first post dissmisses gut feeling as an illusion your second says it counts which is it???

as an afterthought to all the dice chuckers who would of gone all in with AA where any one gets this 50/50 preflop? when in reality its 37% which makes it 40/60 your the kinda people i like my table all too ready to chuck in with almost any face card with less than a 50% chance of a result.
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 04:46 AM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 66theOnLYoNe View Post
well ive been doing alot o studying on strategys such as playing the odds, playing position and starting hands ive downloaded starting hand charts and other tosh in general.

Now there all sound in priciple but have nothing on common sense. today ive played in mtt's on various sites including poker stars and this is what ive found.

Hand example 1.
AA

prelop in early position i chuck in a raise 4 times the big blind. everyone folded up to the small blind who called the big blind raised and so did the button. my choices now were call or raise all in or fold. i folded, wise choice as the big blind had jacks and hit trips. Now if id have followed the strategy guides id of been out first hand of tourney

Hand example 2.
J7

the stragey guides all point toward folding this in all positions but i called and hit full house on the flop.

i have many other examples and they all have similart results. From now on im going to use gut feeling and common sence becuase at the end of the day if you have to follow other peoples strategys your playing there game and not your own and that will be many aspiring players downfall.

Hi!

AA hand:

Since you did not shove all in with your AA, you really have no clue whether the guy with JJ might have folded his hand, you still see a call from 2 others, and triple up on the hand, resulting in a really deep run.

You can play "what if" games all you like, but it does not make folding your way out of a +eV spot a good idea.

J7 Hand:

I have a 100% SURE FIRE WAY never to be out of the pot if/when your hand hits...

NEVER FOLD.

Of course the slight down side of that is you will also LOSE the maximum number of hands too...

I suggest you try this:

FOLD AA 100 times, and count how many times you would have LOST on the flop or turn, versus how many times you would have won if you had bet the flop and turn and gotten calls.

Then...

Move ALL IN on the first hand of an MTT 100 times with J7, and get called. See how many times you WIN.

The results will probably be quite BAD for you in both cases, but at least you'll have seen the "results" of making these same decisions over and over again.

(And no, I really do not suggest you do this, unless you SERIOUSLY think your decisions were good, just because the results were good in a very small sample of instances)


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 04:56 AM
(#16)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by 66theOnLYoNe View Post
feskprins your two replys totally contradict each other your first post dissmisses gut feeling as an illusion your second says it counts which is it???
No. In the first post, I said that gut feeling is an illusion in these situations because there's absolutely no way to know what the board will look like. The other posts were when the flop (or more) has been dealt.

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