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Live $1/2 NL. K4s facing large river bet

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Live $1/2 NL. K4s facing large river bet - Sun Apr 01, 2012, 06:37 PM
(#1)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Okay, so I'm playing a little $1/2 NL at a casino, and a player who's fairly new to my table (one orbit or so, seems tight, in his 40s) raises to $4 or $5 from early position. Someone calls in middle position, and I call with on the button.

The flop is x . x was small, like a 3 or 2. Checks to me and I bet $6 with my flush draw and overcard. The original raiser calls and the third person folds.

Turn is a 9. Check/check.

River 8. He fires $20, about a potsize bet (gotta love the rake). I go into the tank and apologize for taking so long. He's pretty tight so I'm not expecting a lot of 8s or 9s in his EP raising range unless he has quads. Overpairs probably don't play the hand (particularly the flop) this way. Ace high has showdown value and shouldn't be able to get me off anything better, and we both have lots of busted flush and straight draws in our ranges (me a lot more than him), and ace high is ahead of all of those. I think his mostly likely hand here is a small-medium pair that has been counterfeited and can't win except by bluffing. Something like 66 or 77. He could also have a hand like JT or maybe, but he probably would have just limped those preflop.

Call? Fold? Shove? (Got about $80 effective behind).
 
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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 04:35 AM
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Since: Aug 2010
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Hi Jared!

In this spot I favor a FOLD.

The pot is small, you lack info on the opp really, and you are more likely to "waste" $20 chasing after your small-ish $10 investment by trying to call. To me, given the info you have passed on (somewhat tight, in EP), this sniffs like an A really, or a pretty BIG hit (like a flopped set of 8s or 9s that are now quads) so a call is somewhat hopeless for your K hi.

One could possibly THINK about a raise, but this could get you into big trouble.

You really lack the info to tell whether or not a raise that looks like a standard value raise (say making it around $55 or $60 to go) would work, whether a SMALL raise (like a raise to $40 or $45) would be read as really strong, or whether an all in might be perceived as some sort of "weakness".

Personally, I would much prefer to take that risk only after having more info that just a single orbit.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 10:36 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hey Jared,

One other thing, the guy betting an ace may not make sense, but tbh I see this kind of thing a lot live, bad live players do things that make no sense all the time. My first thought in reading it was the same as JDean's, it looks like ace high and he thinks he's good.

I'd fold as well. Shoving is just reckless, bad live players may not fold ace high here... I don't try and make sophisticated moves too much on live fish. If you have a strong gut check that he's just been counterfeited and is bluffing then you can call, but I think more often than not we're beat in this spot.

Dave


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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 11:28 AM
(#4)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hi ori,

I am currently trying to get the rust off my live game for vegas in the summer so here's my take on the spot - hope it helps:

I think your smallish flop bet might encourage a lot of calls from a much wider range. In general I think a bigger bet is much more +EV here since you build up the pot with a lot of outs in position, increase foldequity against better hands (KQ/AK might peel once against that small of a bet).

That being said this turn may seem like a bad card to semibluff but I acutally think it is a good one in this exact spot. Two things should increase your foldequity here imo:

1. The 9 should improve your perceived range much more and you can credibly rep it as the preflop caller in position.
2. You are probably up against a wider than usual range due to the smallish flop bet and can get more folds from overs and underpairs.

I find the River to be really close between folding and calling. His sizing and line both indicate that he will probably be heavily polarized, but I think that in general live players tend to have a very low river bluffing frequency and a crazy addiction to slowplays, so I actually think he has boats or quads in that spot very very often.

Since he is an older guy he might not be playing his flushdraws aggressively on the flop - but then again why should he do so with a busted draw on the river. The only thing I can see him turning into bluffs here is the counterfeited pairs which can still be in his range by the river due to your small flop sizing and turn checkback. For this reason I think raising is out of question, since I don't think that you can get any better hands to fold.

- Felix


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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 02:01 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
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Great comments Felix, I agree the flop bet is too small and I would def. fire a 2nd barrel here as played since AK/AQ will peel the flop quite frequently to this bet but now fold the turn a huge % of the time, especially since your action will look consistent with top pair that turned trips. Also I would add to that, if he check-raises the turn you can comfortably fold your flush draw, it's no good. Like Felix said many live fish are slow play crazy, and he's not going to check/call with top pair on the flop so a check/raise on the turn won't be trip 9's, it'll be 8's full typically (quad 9's he probably slow plays again, because that's what live fish do with monsters, fail to build the pot and pray you'll bet for them).

Dave


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Mon Apr 02, 2012, 11:48 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Great comments guys! I guess I should add that while I was in the tank he certainly looked a bit uneasy. Of course I felt like his range was mostly polarized to hands like 66-77 for counterfeit and 88-99 for quads. Both of these ranges would likely feel super worried at my deepthink here, quads fearing a fold and bluffs fearing the call. I'm absolutely crushing a range of 77, 88, 99, even if he only bluffs the 77 half the time (which I feel is reasonable since my hand looks so weak, like the busted flush draw that it is, but I definitely wouldn't expect him to bluff it 100% of the time).

Turns out he had AQ, and when I finally decided to call he said "Good call" and flipped it over. Unfortunately he didn't muck it, and I conceded that he had a better hand. It just didn't make sense to me that he would bet an ace there, but apparently this is standard live. One of the other regulars (a kid who seemed decent at that) said that that was pretty standard to bet an ace there. I kept pondering the hand and referencing it, and eventually the AQ guy said that he felt like I was just trying to take the pot away on the flop and was most likely full of it...but when I called he said good call, meaning he was trying to bluff me off TT+ (which I'm never folding after underrepping so hard on the turn)??? That just seemed so strange. And then the kid said that if I thought I was good I should have moved in... I mean if I were Russ Hamilton I'd raise here (this guy's definitely folding an ace), but this just seemed like a spot where raising is pointless.

Quote:
That being said this turn may seem like a bad card to semibluff but I acutally think it is a good one in this exact spot. Two things should increase your foldequity here imo:
Interesting point. I almost always check back the turn when it pairs the board as it makes it so much less likely that I have anything. However since his range here mostly looks like broadway draws, smaller pairs and ace high, a second barrel here should do the trick. I can pretty much discredit TT-AA from his range entirely since he'd never check them on the flop. And of course most of these guys are entirely playing their own hand and not really thinking about mine besides "I think he might be bluffing" kind of stuff.

I don't think the flop bet was really that tiny. It sounds small, but there was at least $2 taken in rake already (not sure how they do it, but rake's a bitch. I think it's like 10% rounded up to the nearest dollar plus the small blind, so a $12 preflop pot is like $9 or $10 on the flop, I think...I remember my bet being half pot or bigger. I generally bet fairly large on wet boards)

Even though I had the worse hand this time I still feel like it was an okay call. Looking back I think his range there is like quads, counterfeits, busto draws, and big aces, and I'm pretty close to breakeven getting 2 to 1 against that range. Also, a benefit from making that call...People were super unlikely to bluff me for the rest of the night, and that made it really easy to play against them.

Quote:
Also I would add to that, if he check-raises the turn you can comfortably fold your flush draw, it's no good.
Good point. Normally I want to call with my flush draw for serious implied odds if I think the other guy is strong but not boated, but obviously if he's always boated or better I have no hope and it's an easy fold.

Quote:
Like Felix said many live fish are slow play crazy
Hehe, had a fun hand a few hours later. I raised the button with 69o over a couple limpers (Not something I usually do, but they were 100% limping limpers who usually folded to a raise) and the (older--like 40s-50s seemed foreign. Earlier he flatted a LP raise with QQ from the BB after I flatted JJ on the button) BB called, and I think one of the limpers called too. The flop was QQ8, checked to me and I bet and the BB called. Turn 7 gave me an open ender. Check/check. River T gives me the straight and the BB shoves about a pot size bet. While QT is a decent part of his range, so are KQ and QJ, so I make the call with my straight and he flips over QJ--ship it!

I ended the session up a good amount (about double my total investment)
 
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Tue Apr 03, 2012, 12:28 AM
(#7)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Too tired at the moment to read through all the replies, but can give my quick 2 cents

I recently started playing 1/2 NLHE live and have spent around 60 hours at the tables. I would say in this case, against an 'unknown in his 40's' it is 100% fold.

Honestly, K4s plays poorly in any position. The fact that most live players are terrible and play way too loosely means your K4 will play even worse.

On average, an unknown player in his 40's is absolutely not going to be potting the river with a bluff. I'd assume full house. Worse is possible, but most will still be beating you, like pocket tens or AQ.

Play is poor enough at 1/2 NLHE that you can approach the game from a TAG (borderline nitty) or LAG style. Best in my opinion would be to switch gears between both. Even so, K4s shouldn't ever be in your range, except maybe when opening on the button vs weak blinds.
 
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Tue Apr 03, 2012, 05:31 AM
(#8)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
This hand is really interesting and struck me with some things that are sooo characteristic of live games.

It is really interesting to note that live players tend to bet A high in spots like that. Dave has had the experience too, so I will definitely look out for this when I'm in Vegas. It seems like they do this kind of stuff much more out of confusion and inability to put people on hand ranges.

Something I instantly thought of when reading about his preflop sizing is that you can probably narrow his range down to very specific hands like medium pairs and AQ. I am not entirely sure about this but since live players are so highly imbalanced with their preflop sizings I would expect them to have a lot of 77-TT and AQ for a $5 open in EP. They will probably limp the smaller pairs and even AJ/AT/KQ/KJ type hands.

@rockerguy: From a theoretical perspective I think you are absolutely right. Flatting K4s OTB in an online FR game would probably be highly -EV. In livegames I tend to think that you can actually still flat a lot of hands against smaller opens or deeper stacks very profitably. The key here is that you are in position and have much more information/reads/gameflow to work with. Sometimes you might even be passing up on a highly +EV situation when your opponents are really inexperienced postflop (and that is the case with the majority of live players^^). Against an unknown player however it should be much more of a fold, I agree.


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Last edited by PSO-xflixx; Tue Apr 03, 2012 at 05:38 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 03, 2012, 02:35 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Great comments guys! I guess I should add that while I was in the tank he certainly looked a bit uneasy. Of course I felt like his range was mostly polarized to hands like 66-77 for counterfeit and 88-99 for quads. Both of these ranges would likely feel super worried at my deepthink here, quads fearing a fold and bluffs fearing the call. I'm absolutely crushing a range of 77, 88, 99, even if he only bluffs the 77 half the time (which I feel is reasonable since my hand looks so weak, like the busted flush draw that it is, but I definitely wouldn't expect him to bluff it 100% of the time).

Turns out he had AQ, and when I finally decided to call he said "Good call" and flipped it over. Unfortunately he didn't muck it, and I conceded that he had a better hand. It just didn't make sense to me that he would bet an ace there, but apparently this is standard live. One of the other regulars (a kid who seemed decent at that) said that that was pretty standard to bet an ace there. I kept pondering the hand and referencing it, and eventually the AQ guy said that he felt like I was just trying to take the pot away on the flop and was most likely full of it...but when I called he said good call, meaning he was trying to bluff me off TT+ (which I'm never folding after underrepping so hard on the turn)??? That just seemed so strange. And then the kid said that if I thought I was good I should have moved in... I mean if I were Russ Hamilton I'd raise here (this guy's definitely folding an ace), but this just seemed like a spot where raising is pointless.
You're reading way too much into it. Of course he's nervous, he bet ace high and is afraid you have an 8 when you tank. He's not trying to bluff you, he simply has 2 pair with an ace and thinks it's good. He said "good call" because he thinks when you call you have him beat, and yes betting ace high makes no sense, but bad players do things that make no sense all the time. And the advice from the kid is pretty terrible imo. If you think you're good just call, the benefit to moving in would be to get him off ace high, but I wouldn't trust the guy to fold ace high enough to do it.


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