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NL25 AA 3-bet pot fold on the flop?

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NL25 AA 3-bet pot fold on the flop? - Wed Apr 04, 2012, 03:31 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25, $0.05 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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CO: $31.74 (127 bb)
BTN: $34.40 (137.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $30.86 (123.4 bb)
BB: $41.64 (166.6 bb)
MP: $128.33 (513.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A:diamond: A:heart:
MP folds, CO raises to $0.75, BTN raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, BTN calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.25) 5:spade: 7:spade: K:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $5.37, BTN raises to $29.35 and is all-in, Hero folds

The villain is unknown. The fold is good on the flop? Ohh sorry and it was a 4-bet pot

Last edited by Nocco88; Wed Apr 04, 2012 at 03:35 PM..
 
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Thu Apr 05, 2012, 04:00 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco88!

(Sorry for delay in answering, I've been sick for the last day and a half or so)

Your pre flop 4bet created the sort of stack to pot ratio that would favor you CALLING (around 3) on just an over pair, but the highly coordinated board makes it possible you are beaten by a flush already, and have practically no way to catch up. If you held AA with the As, then this is an insta-call, but without the As it can be trickier. Since you have no info upon which to work here, this is how I'd break it down:

Given the pot size when he shoves ($16.37), and the size of our call ($20.49), we are risking $20.49 to possibly win $57.35. This means we need to have right around 35.7% equity to break even on a call.

Now what might we EXPECT his 4bet call range, and his shove range to consist of:

First, we "should" see a quite TIGHT range for him to call that 4bet. Right up front, the presence of the Ks on the flop blocks the most likely flopped flush for him: AKs

This means the only real threat of a flush for him NOW would be possibly AQs, and MAYBE AJs (if the guy is really loose pre flop). We only have about 1.8% equity if he holds one of these hands though. These are not really hugely likely though, first because we hold 2 "blockers" to him having AQ/AJ (our aces), and second because AQs/AJs are only in a pretty loose 4bet call range; we'd possibly give these more credit if we had info saying the villain was quite loose.

A large part of his likely shove range could be tied up in AsKx as this is a likely 4bet call hand for a lot of people, and top/top + nut flush draw is a pretty reasonable shove hand too. Against this we have roughly 56.9% equity. If he'd shove "naked" As hands, like AsQx or AsJx, we have roughly 62.6% equity.

The another good bit of his (likely) 4bet call range would probably consist of premium pocket pairs, JJ+.

For JJ/QQ, he would pretty much have to have a spade in his hand to shove. Against these we'd have about 56.9% equity.

KK has flopped a set, and since he could not have a Ks, we'd have roughly 10% equity.

If he holds AA he would have a "free roll" on us (since he'd have to hold the As), and we would lose the max about 32% of the time, and chop the rest.

Combining all the possible hands in his range together probably nets us at least the 35.7% we need to break even; this means since we built the pot, we probably SHOULD make the call.

If we could tip his range toward more LOOSENESS, we could possibly add in 77/55 to his possible hands, as well as weaker 2 spade hands, but we'd ALSO likely see more shoves with 1 spade hands as well.

You see Nocco88, the idea behind using stack to pot ratioes to configure your pre flop decisions around commitment. This does NOT mean you "must" call here, afterall this particular villain's range to call a 4bet and to shove may consist ONLY of hands that have us crushed (KK and AQs). But without specific info on your opponent, you have to think that when you hold an over pair, you are not facing JUST hands against which you have little equity.

So in this spot, I'd probably not LOVE it a whole bunch, but I'd probably make the call.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Apr 05, 2012, 04:02 PM
(#3)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
it is a tough spot but i think it is not really a good fold, your 4bet and him calling makes the effective SPR about 2.5 what equals that you should bet + get in allin or check/fold. and your hand is too strong to check/fold
it usually sucks when your opponent turns over KK here, but there is a decent chance he only has one K
 

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