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NL25 QTo river valuebet?

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NL25 QTo river valuebet? - Wed Apr 04, 2012, 03:38 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25 (100 bb)
SB: $28.41 (113.6 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $16.26 (65 bb)
MP: $18.15 (72.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $25.50 (102 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:spade: T:heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 3:heart: Q:club: T:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.32, BTN calls $1.32

Turn: ($4.49) 2:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.21, BTN calls $3.21

River: ($10.91) 3:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.80, Hero folds

Villain's stats: VPIP:22 PFR:14 AF:1 H:51

Can I bet for value on the river? As played what is the good play on the river?
 
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Thu Apr 05, 2012, 09:45 AM
(#2)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
you are folding top two pair for what reason???

the guy never raised you he might think his AQ KQ is good here......

bad bad bad bad did i mention bad? fold
 
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Thu Apr 05, 2012, 09:48 AM
(#3)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
i like the check, he might have KJ here and decides to bluff it, same goes for you, you MIGHT have KJ here and decide to give up.. you are almost never losing this pot.

most of the times your opponent has a weaker Q
maybe a T
I dont expect a flush here
there is no straigth
only a full house has you beat or AA / KK
most people would raise these hands PFR or on the turn....
I just can't see you are beat..

I already mentioned this but you keep posting hands that just by lack of experience you lose... you should drop in limits because you aren't ready for more savy opponents..

If this guy was better than average he might just float you here with A high or whatever, since he could know that you are just a weak player..
 
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Thu Apr 05, 2012, 05:55 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco88.

Terrible river fold in my opinion.

You flopped top 2 pair, so betting this pretty dry board on the flop and turn is fine.

A value bet on the river can be fine too, as you have top 2 pair. The thing is, if you ARE beat by something like a set, making the river value bet is going to be hugely committing for you if you stick with what appears to be your "standard" (around $6.50 on the river). This means if the villain jams over your V Bet, you really should NOT fold, and that could cost you the max.

A river CHECK is an idea here, as that could easily see a bet amount by the opponent that you can call; a lot of times your top 2 will be better than hands that might bet the river over your check. As such, this is why I think your FOLD on the river is BAD...

- KK/AA got there to beat you when the board paired the river, but wouldn't those types of hands probably raised you at some point earlier in the hand?

- As the flush possibility came runner/runner, the only really likely chance a flush is he would be QdXd of KJd...

- A flopped set is a possibility, but QQ may raise you pre flop, 22 probably doesn't stay past the flop, so only 33/TT are really "possibilities".

- Your pre flop raise should serve to fold out most all hands that would contain a 3.

So there is really not a ton of things your top 2 hand needs to "fear", and THAT's why a river fold is so bad. As long as you do not FOLD, you can either V Bet and commit or check/call if you think the opp may slow play sets really deep into the hand, but a fold is really not an option here...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 06:08 AM..
 

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