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NL25 AQo 4-way pot postflop play

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NL25 AQo 4-way pot postflop play - Thu Apr 05, 2012, 04:41 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $25.66 (102.6 bb)
UTG: $25.85 (103.4 bb)
MP: $51.36 (205.4 bb)
CO: $28.13 (112.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $46.50 (186 bb)
SB: $33.87 (135.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q:heart: A:club:
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, CO raises to $1, Hero calls $1, SB calls $0.90, BB folds, MP calls $0.75

Flop: ($4.25) Q:spade: 3:club: 8:club: (4 players)
SB checks, MP checks, CO bets $3.21, Hero calls $3.21, SB calls $3.21, MP folds

Turn: ($13.88) Q:diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls $9, CO folds

River: ($31.88) 6:spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $33.29 and is all-in, SB calls $20.66

MP stats: VPIP:57 PFR:9 AF:3 H:133
CO stats: VPIP:25 PFR:18 AF:2 H:803
SB stats: VPIP:17 PFR:9 AF:0,7 H:66

What is the good play here? Can I shove on the river?
 
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Thu Apr 05, 2012, 07:28 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco88!

CAN you shove...yes.

SHOULD you shove, that is open to debate...

You have 1 near pot size bet left in your stack on the river. As such, you probably have enough value in your hand to call off the entirety of that stack if you lead bet just about any amount and the opponent shoves. In this case, the opponent is likely to shove you with weaker Qs he may over value, over pairs that he slow played, or he could even make a mistake in thinking a half pot type bet by you leaves him room to bluff the Q. By immediately shoving when you have no real intent to FOLD, you completely avoid any tricky decision where you might consider folding, you also would tend to fold out some hands that MIGHT call (like AA/KK).

BUT...

This guy is never folding sets that boated, so a bet may only get called by a BETTER hand. As such a check/call could be preferable in the wisest range of circumstances here Nocco.

I am going to veer a bit off a and talk about YOU specifically...

Looking at the hands you have posted so far Nocco, in every circumstance you have pretty much been super aggro on the flop and the turn. And also in each hand, you have been CALLED when you were. I would be curious to see YOUR stats, because it really appears that your opponents are adjusting to you.

If this is the case, I think I like your shove here more than for most people.

You see, from what you've posted, it appears that your particular patterns may lead to more calls by hands like AA/KK or JJ in these sorts of spots, so that favors you trying to get paid the maximum here. Just like you should be watching opponents' to make your decisions better against them, THEY should be watching you; and in that case, they may call you lighter based on the things you've shown.

Normally though, the SPR going to this flop really does not favor stacking off with trips, so I think would adopt a check/call line on the river.

Hope it helps!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Apr 06, 2012, 04:41 AM
(#3)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
Hi JDean,

Thanks for the analysis again Generally, I think my flop, and my turn play is acceptable, but in a lot of situation I miss a lot of thin value on the river. I recently watched the "Welcome to valuetown" series, and I think it is a very great series and I learned a lot from it. My flop agression is 44,2%, my turn agression is 34,9%, and my river agression is 18,5%. My flop cbet is 65%, and my turn cbet is 61,3%. Are these stats seems okay to you?
 
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Fri Apr 06, 2012, 05:55 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nocco88 View Post
Hi JDean,

Thanks for the analysis again Generally, I think my flop, and my turn play is acceptable, but in a lot of situation I miss a lot of thin value on the river. I recently watched the "Welcome to valuetown" series, and I think it is a very great series and I learned a lot from it. My flop agression is 44,2%, my turn agression is 34,9%, and my river agression is 18,5%. My flop cbet is 65%, and my turn cbet is 61,3%. Are these stats seems okay to you?
Hi again!

Your C Bet % on the flop looks fine, as long as you are playing a semi loose, but not TOO loose, range to start. Something around 20 to 25% at 6 max on your VPIP would look pretty decent with your C Bet frequency.

Your TURN C Bet frequency looks a bit high though. This 61.3% means you are firing 2 barrels about 94% of the time you fire the first barrel. A pattern this "extreme" can lead to opp's adjusting to you, because they can just about say you are "always" firing 2 barrels if you've fired the first one, right?

If they can say that, then they can tend to know some things may happen:

- They will tend to get pretty fat implied odds for weaker draws like 8 or 9 out-ers (depending upon your stack and their stack of course).

- They will have to know that you do not feel he "need" to have better than 1 pair very often to fire 2 bullets.

They first instance here means you can pretty much be counted on to "bloat" pots for opp's who hit, and your increased investment may tend to make you feel "stuck" more often to pay off on the river too. The result for you is that the pots you WIN tend to be a lot smaller than the pots you LOSE.

The 2nd instance here means that if you start on deep money, your opp's may find it profitable to "float" you across the flop AND turn. In deep money spots, there may be plenty of chips left in the stacks for them to consider a fat river BLUFF that probably forces you to fold quite often on the river. Your 2 barrel frequency will set you up with a LOT of touchy river spots where you consider stacking off on 1 pair where it isn't warranted, or where you consider FOLDING after you put quite a bit in...all in all that is a "yuck" spot to be in as often as you probably are there given your stats.

(Please note, in THIS hand the villain who calls on the river is oop versus you, so he cannot float you; I was speaking in general about your patterns leaving a 2 street float open for opp's with position on you)

But in THIS hand, the result of your 2 barrel frequency may actually be that you've "polarized" your range into strong hands like your actual holding (AQ), and BLUFFS because you built the pot. This may result in YOU getting calls from pp bigger than the 8 here more often, simply because opp's might think you are simply "fed up" with folding rivers to big bets.

Obviously, flopped sets aren't folding, and even the "tight" opp in the SB MIGHT call along with a hand like QJc or KQc here, and those probably aren't folding very often either. I think it is the fact you FLATTED pre flop, and on the flop, thus veered a bit off your normal pattern (at least based on the hands you showed in the forum here) that makes a river shove a bit better for YOU, than it might be for someone else.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Apr 06, 2012 at 05:59 AM..
 
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Sat Apr 07, 2012, 05:03 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I have no CLUE what I was thinking when I wrote this...this is a TERRIBLE analysis.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Hi Nocco88!

CAN you shove...yes.

SHOULD you shove, that is open to debate...
As played, following the ACTUAL situation, it isn't even close. I will explain how I cacked this in a moment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
You have 1 near pot size bet left in your stack on the river.
This is immaterial.

The smallest stack is the EFFECTIVE STACK, as that stack sets the maximum win or loss for either opponent in a heads up pot. Your opponent has just a 2/3rds pot bet left in his stack, and his stack is smaller than yours, so only the amount HE has left matters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
As such, you probably have enough value in your hand to call off the entirety of that stack if you lead bet just about any amount and the opponent shoves.
This is me, totally losing track of the position...

Your opponent CHECKED to you from the SB. As such, if you feel you have enough value to CALL if he shoves over a "small" bet by you (such as a 1/3rd pot amount), the odds you'd be getting to call his SHOVE would then be on the order of 4+ to 1. You'd only have to think he was BLUFFING a bit less than 20% of the time to break even on calling that shove. In reality, the ONLY options that make sense here would be for you to shove or check behind...

The only way a check behind is a good idea is if you are pretty sure (more than 80% sure) that he is slow playing. Your opponent could play his hand like this with a pp bigger than 8's, or with a busted club flush draw with overs, with a WEAKER Q, as well as with a set which boated, I seriously doubt that you can be 80%+ "sure" he is slow playing given his stats.

You do NOT want to bet small, in hope the villain shoves though, as I seem to suggest in my first analysis. All doing that does is allow your opponent to call and lose LESS when he is beat. Afterall, every hand likely to call a small bet is probably also willing to call a bet that puts your opponent all in, if only because of the pot size going to the river. Betting small does not 'save" you money here either if you are beat, because the opponent would all but certainly be willing to jam over the top if he has a boat and is beating you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
In this case, the opponent is likely to shove you with weaker Qs he may over value, over pairs that he slow played, or he could even make a mistake in thinking a half pot type bet by you leaves him room to bluff the Q. By immediately shoving when you have no real intent to FOLD, you completely avoid any tricky decision where you might consider folding, you also would tend to fold out some hands that MIGHT call (like AA/KK).
This is wrong too...

Your opponent shows a very low aggression factor in your HUD (0.7), so it is probably quite unlikely he'd SHOVE on weaker Qs in fear that you have a better Q, and call instead; that costs you money you might have won by shovin a BETTER Q.

A half pot bet by you would also leave him NO room to think he can bluff you (I thought his stack was bigger for some strange reason); he'd have just a 1/4th pot bet or so left if you bet half pot.

And if he rode something like AA/KK all the way to the river thinking it was good, he is certainly not raising those over a half pot bet in "fear" of you actually having the Q, and the pot is built too much for him to really FOLD those now either.

So all in all Nocco, your shove on the river is exactly what you should have done here. I am sorry for posting such a BAD analysis.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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