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10NL Standard cbet - Trips by river.

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10NL Standard cbet - Trips by river. - Sun Apr 08, 2012, 11:15 AM
(#1)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
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I had just sat down at this table and was more or less readless on all villains (I seem to remember having around 30 hands on villain and him playing around 35/16, but after 30 hands that's not really very significant).

I made my standard preflop open and a typical sized cbet on this texture. When villain calls I imagine his range to be heavily leaning towards 9x hands like 9-8 9-10 j-9 a-9s etc some middle or even small pocket pairs and possibly 10-10 (though less likely since we hold a 10) and JJ (though people will often 3b pre - honestly I couldn't say what the villains tendencies would be in this case). I expect him to flat all sets here on this dry of a board, too (though that's more of a general thing, and maybe misguided). I suppose it's not out of the question that he's playing A high as a float here but I tend not to think that players are doing this much at 10 nl.

On the turn i make TP med K and decide to bet again for value, thinking that the hands I mention may not be willing to let go just yet, especially since the Ace looks like such a great card to barrel at. (In the few hands I have played at this table I have been extremely aggressive both pre and post flop, but again, maybe that's not figuring into my opponents play). The flush draw arrives and there are a couple of open enders but when he flats my turn bet I expect him to have a made hand.

On the river I make trips, which is great but I was agonizing over how much to bet. I tanked for a while and eventually decided to bet pretty huge (since I'm basically repping trips/boats or bluffs imo) hoping to get hero called by any of the hands i mentioned earlier. My thinking was that the Ace was more or less the best card I could hope for since it makes it far less likely that I hold one and even more likely to get called by what was a stubborn top pair/overpair on the flop - or possibly even worse.

In hindsight I wonder if this line (in general) might be a little greedy, and whether I was correct in: a) betting all 3 streets - perhaps a turn check would have been in order (but i don't like doing this OOP) and b) betting so big on the river, I was 100% bet folding this river (with sick bag at the ready) and given the hands I'm hoping to be called by, maybe my sizing should be a little smaller. Maybe around 1/2-2/3 pot?

Any thoughts/opinions welcome - cheers, AK.

Last edited by AceKingBlows; Sun Apr 08, 2012 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 10:37 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi AKB,

I think you're reading a lot into an unknown 10NL random... I believe the majority of players at this level are not thinking about things like good barreling cards, polarized ranges, etc.

I think your ranging is pretty good, on the flop he's going to have a lot of 1 pair hands (both pockets and hands that hit the flop), some straight draws, some ace high's or broadways that are peeling, and a few slowplays. I think we can rule out the slow plays a lot on the turn, just because they are so unlikely to begin with and most players would have raised by now with them. Also broadways aren't calling again. So that leaves straight draws, 1 pairs, and the ace hands. We're obviously ahead of most of that range... only trailing aces up and AJ-AK (and so many players are 3b happy with AK these days that's a bit less likely).

On the river to me your large bet screams value, if the villain was thinking along the lines you ascribed I think you're only getting called by a very narrow range, specifically the aces. I would make a smaller bet personally as I think it targets the villains range better... it's more likely to get looked up by the 1 pair hands, it gives busted straight draws a chance to think maybe they can raise as a bluff, and it also might make weaker Ax hands comfortable enough to raise as well, giving us the best of all worlds (big value vs. Ax, while adding value from small hands and busted draws). Of course readless this is all guesswork, but that's the approach I'd take.

Definitely like betting all 3 streets.

Dave


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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 11:26 AM
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AceKingBlows's Avatar
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Thanks Dave - I was stunned when villain showed me threes full. You're right, I'm probably over thinking some aspects of the hand.

One aspect that I have some trouble with is that you seem to be saying that if I bet small on the river and get raised I should be comfortable calling said raise? Or do you mean sizing dependant?

I don't really think any worse hands will raise even if I bet smaller (except bluffs which are obviously worse) but maybe I'm wrong (wouldn't be the first time! )
 
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AceKingBlows View Post
Thanks Dave - I was stunned when villain showed me threes full. You're right, I'm probably over thinking some aspects of the hand.
Well yeah, not much we can do about that except make a note about how he played a flopped set. I think this is a fantastic result tbh, the villain slow played himself out of a ton of value (we got off light thanks to his extreme slowplaying).

Quote:
One aspect that I have some trouble with is that you seem to be saying that if I bet small on the river and get raised I should be comfortable calling said raise? Or do you mean sizing dependant?

I don't really think any worse hands will raise even if I bet smaller (except bluffs which are obviously worse) but maybe I'm wrong (wouldn't be the first time! )
Yes, if we bet small it may induce bluff raises and "value" raises from worse aces, so we should be prepared to call. When I say smaller I'm not meaning 1/2 to 2/3rds pot, that's not a small bet... I'm talking 1/4 to 1/3rd pot or maybe even less depending on the situation. You were comfortable betting $3 here (close to the pot size) for value but if you bet $1 and the villain raised to $3, it's the same expense. Actually people are so min-raise happy with monsters this line might get you to showdown cheaper than the $3 bet when he does have a full house. But I do think most of his range is not full houses, his range is likely heavy with moderate 1 pair hands and busted draws, and they're not getting frisky for a $3 bet very often but might for a smaller token value bet.


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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 12:28 PM
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Ok, thanks a lot - was obviously overestimating what a smaller bet should be here. Yeah - I was thinking the same thing about the guy slowplaying himself into obvlivion and actually not knowing where he was on the river.

I certainly would have laid it down to a flop/river raise but if he'd raised turn i'd have been tempted to reevaluate @ river and pmuch the worst card in the deck would have peeled off :p
 
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 12:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AceKingBlows View Post
I certainly would have laid it down to a flop/river raise but if he'd raised turn i'd have been tempted to reevaluate @ river and pmuch the worst card in the deck would have peeled off :p
Well if he raises the turn and we call, then he bombs the river, we're really not beating much so it's still a fold. I think vs. that line (by an unsophisticated opponent) we will be looking at a lot of full houses.


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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 01:02 PM
(#7)
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Definitely, just would have made it a lot tougher since I'm far from immune from the kind of thinking that a lot of players would mistakenly use here : "OMG I HAZ TRIPZ!". :p
 
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 07:55 PM
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I think checking the turn turns your hand fairly face-up (as like a middle pair or weak ace). This ace is a great double barreling card since you have a lot more aces in your range as preflop raiser than he does as caller. Because of this I think you have to bet your ace here, so that your betting-the-ace-range actually has aces in it! In this spot his calling range is likely to be fairly inelastic as well. This would be a good card to bluff, and he'd probably be just as likely to fold/call a small bet as a big one. Since you have a hand near the top of your range here (you are double-barreling on turn cards like this often with worse right?) you aim to get value. I would make a fairly large but probably not stack-committing bet. Around 2/3 of the pot is a nice size.

Nice job noticing the effects of the river. It doesn't really change your hand (you now beat unlikely 96, 63, 93), but it does alter (weaken) your range. It makes it far less likely that you actually have an ace. This should make him more likely to call down with a pair of 9s or 8s. If he is capable of bluffing though, this opens up an opportunity for him to bluff-raise the river since YOU rarely have an ace or better here, but mostly it should just make it easier for a smaller pair to call. In this spot you want to ascertain whether villain is more likely to try to bluff you or call a bet. Against some opponents I like making a small blocker bet, forcing the other guy to polarize his range, intending to bet/call since his value range is so narrow (particularly since you're holding an ace!) Against some players who will want to hero-call the big bet makes sense, but I really like a weak blocker bet. I'd probably bet $1 like you did on the turn.

He'll be more likely to look you up with a pair, and he'll be raising all his aces and full houses and possibly bluffs. You beat everything except 33, 66, 99, A3, A6, A9, AJ, AQ, but he's probably also raising A8, A7, A5, A4, A2, and some bluffs. Interesting thing to note: how often does he have A3, A6, A9? Probably pretty close to never. He's probably not calling your raise preflop with an offsuit weak ace. The only ways he can have A3s, A6s, or A9s are to have or , since the other three aces are all accounted for. This makes his range of hands that are better than yours very small: 3 ways each to have 33, 66, 99, and only 1 way each for A6s and A9s, and still 4 ways each for AJ and AQ. This makes 19 hands that beat you (assuming he can even get to the turn with AJ/AQ offsuit--I would think they'd have to be suited in hearts most of the time). He can also have a hand like A2, A4, A5, A7, or A8 suited in hearts for an overcard and backdoor flush draw in his value raising range, as well as bluffs like 45s, 78s, , etc. that he'll know can't win at showdown, but won't be able to fold to a 1/4th pot bet because of how weak that looks.
 
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 11:43 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Interesting thing to note: how often does he have A3, A6, A9? Probably pretty close to never. He's probably not calling your raise preflop with an offsuit weak ace.
What makes you say this? It's 10NL vs. a guy who plays 35% of his hands so far. How can we rule out Ax?


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