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I don't know about this fold...

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I don't know about this fold... - Mon Apr 09, 2012, 12:27 AM
(#1)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
SilverStar


I didn't have many hands on my opponent, but in the few that I had he was very tight and not very aggressive post-flop. I had a strong feeling that he had me beat on the river... either a straight or possibly a bigger set. This is the first time I have ever folded a set and I'm not sure it was the right move.
 
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 11:45 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,491
(Head Trainer)
Hi ham,

When we check to him we may induce bluffs from busted flush draws, and value bets as weak as KQ I think so I don't like the fold here (certainly I think many players would value bet 2 pair when checked too, and even just a king thinking we might have TT-QQ). The read you have is very circumstantial since you don't have many hands on the villain, so I don't feel comfortable saying that the way this hand has played out he must have us beat. I think we'll be good often enough to be profitable on a call, and although there's a margin of error on that guess due to the lack of reads, the call also garners us an immediate enhancement towards our future reads to see exactly what he played this way, flatting 3 times then betting the river on a 4 liner to a straight board when checked to, and that info has some value as well. I'm not a fan of informational calls that are themselves clearly -EV, but in this case I think the call is uncertain at best and most likely +EV anyway, and if it's close the added potential of valuable info swings it.

Hope this helps,
Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Mon Apr 09, 2012, 01:48 PM
(#3)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I would check call the river. There are flush draws and maybe an aggro player would ever try to value his to pair. And you ll have info for next hand against him too.

Of course if you have reads that he plays draws like that things can change.

Etienne
 

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