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16NL shove or fold

16NL shove or fold - Mon Apr 09, 2012, 04:20 PM
ferdyr77's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 88
Hi Guys,

Did i overplay my AK here? I had hardly any stats on the guy and he limped EP
As i had 2 blockers i think AA,KK was minimized that he could have that.
Range could be, AK,QQ maybe JJ AQ lower pockets but thats just a guess without knowing him.
AK,QQ,JJ gives 53% against my 46%

Should I fold?

Mon Apr 09, 2012, 05:41 PM
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
i'm all for raisin' a early limper w/ AKo, but when a basically unknown jams 62ish bb in my face pre i gotta think i'm racin' at best for $10. not really my idea of a good time. :-) i'd have to cut it loose at that point. if it were say in the 20ish bb or less range then it's a go for me.
may the tinfoil protect you.
ps your title should be fold or call it off

May the tinfoil protect you. MT

Last edited by mtnestegg; Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 06:28 PM..
Mon Apr 09, 2012, 08:09 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Hi feydr.

In my experience, this sort of line by an EP player is usually a reasonably strong middle pp (JJ thru 99), because those are the sorts of hands people think are a bit too strong to fold, a bit too WEAK to raise pre, but hands they tend to convince themselves are "best" because they always like to assume a raiser is on un-paired overs.

Given the money you have to call vs what you might win, you need to have around 46.7% equity to break even ($9.95 to cal and possibly win around $11, 1.14 to 1 odds).

Given that you have no real solid info on the opponent, you probably have to think that he is weighting his range toward pocket pairs.

Your 2 blockers to AA/KK do matter, so I'd not immediately suspect he was so strong or so "tricky" in his play style to limp/shove AA/KK, although he could be...

If we remove the smallest pp and largest pp from his range, and include just hands QQ to 77, you have around 44% equity. This is not the price you NEED, but it is close.

I think you CAN fold here, but even the inclusion of AK/AQ in a limp/shove range would give you the equity to call this big over bet. My personal opinion is that without info, I'd really not want to run the risk of a big stack hit like this if my opponent IS a very "tricky" type who might do this with AA/KK though, and I'd probably fold...

But I'd hardly call your CALL with AKo a huge "mistake".

Hope it helps.


Double Bracelet Winner
Tue Apr 10, 2012, 02:01 PM
ferdyr77's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 88
Thanks guys,

I was not quite sure! I have no problem bringing it all in and as seen i lose some money with AK's so i might overplay it sometimes.

i better not ask what a tinfoil hat is


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