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time-banking the nuts on the turn vs top-pair overvaluer

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time-banking the nuts on the turn vs top-pair overvaluer - Tue Apr 10, 2012, 03:00 AM
(#1)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
hi all,

Last edited by rule110; Thu Apr 26, 2012 at 10:40 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 03:43 AM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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I think your turn bet is wayyyyyy too small if you think he's got top pair. Gin card came on the river obviously, but with any other river card besides a K or Q he's not leading out and allowing you to get stacks in too easily. It would look way strong to ship $7 into a $3 pot, particularly if overbetting is not part of your game. Also I don't think he's gonna be aggressive enough that you get anything out of making a trick blocker bet. Bet more like $1.50+, even $2, to set yourself up to get it in on the river. It also looks a lot more bluffy. River's fine obviously. His lead is always for value and you have the nuts so you can expect to get his whole stack here every time.
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 04:02 AM
(#3)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
why do you bet 2/3 of the pot with a draw and when you hit you bet 1/3 of the pot?

You aren't giving yourself decent odds to draw even with the turn bet already added, you will also need to get value from him on the river, if another scary card comes like an A, J or Q and any diamond you might not get any action.

Also your read is that your opponent is likely to overplay top pair, I would bet again 2/3 since it is likely for him to call. You might try to get a full potsize bet but I dont want to risk a fold with a hand like this.

besides you don't need to worry that much about time bank, it usually does not matter since those opponents only look at their cards and don't think about yours.

One more thing: if you know your opponent is likely to overplay top pair, why you (semi) bluff on the flop? You arent likely to get a fold and you have to make your hand to make it profitable
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 04:55 AM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post
One more thing: if you know your opponent is likely to overplay top pair, why you (semi) bluff on the flop? You arent likely to get a fold and you have to make your hand to make it profitable
You can't possibly know he has top pair when he checks the flop. There is so much besides top pair in his range at this point. Also the nut flush draw has just under 50% equity against top pair, is crushing smaller flush draws and straight draws and this is easily a bet for value (and capitalizing on the dead money and some hand protection against like 98 which can pick up a pair given a free card). You most likely have the best hand already, and even if you don't you're not much worse than a coinflip to have it by the river.

Last edited by oriholic; Tue Apr 10, 2012 at 04:58 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 04:59 AM
(#5)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
i bet

Last edited by rule110; Thu Apr 26, 2012 at 10:50 PM..
 
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Wed Apr 11, 2012, 11:11 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi rule,

I agree with the others that the turn bet is way too small... when he calls the flop he's obviously got a K a lot of the time. The sample size of info you have is extremely limited (21 hands and only 1 showdown of top pair) but in that 1 showdown he demonstrated that he would call large bets with top pair, so in this case we should make large bets. Ori is right, you got really lucky to get his stack here since he needed to hit his kicker for this to happen, if the river is a blank he just check-calls again and the small turn bet costs you value on both the turn and river. A bit of fancy play syndrome on the turn but no need for that without any evidence it will be effective.

Also FYI, time banking then betting or raising is a pretty big tell of a huge hand. Most micro-stakes players won't know this but as you run into more savvy opponents moving up they will.

Dave


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