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2nl JJ vs UTG NIT and mid position fish

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2nl JJ vs UTG NIT and mid position fish - Tue Apr 10, 2012, 02:05 PM
(#1)
darkmajik365's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 191


Have 68 hands on the UTG raiser who is playing 10/9 and this is the first pot in all 68 hands he has opened for a raise UTG having never played a pot from that position. Mid position fish is playing 67/10 through 52 hands. I dont have a lot of post flop reads on the UTG raiser as he is involved in so few pots.
Preflop: i opted to call the raise in the BB, i was considering 3betting to isolate and get value from the mid position fish but felt that the UTG raiser would be 4betting my 3bet so often if not with every hand he was opening from UTG given his nitty stats for a 6max game that 3betting against him was not the most profitable play, don't know if this is correct?

Flop: Flopped an over pair on a wet board, decided to check being out of position to 2 other opponents and i did not think i would get value from many worse hands, particularly given the UTG raisers range could still have me crushed with QQ KK AA or AK AQ with big spades/the ace of spades in his hand or sets. UTG bet under half pot fish folded and i opted to call as i felt there was a reasonable chance i was ahead.

I checked called the turn again as i could still be ahead but also have outs to improve to trip jacks or a straight although a spade is not a clean out. Also any spade on the turn may freeze the action and get me a cheap showdown with my jacks, dont know if i can fold to this turn bet? but with such nitty stats is this villain betting worse hands than jacks on this turn card? im not sure i think i would expect a check back alot of the time here when i checked to him. Is it possible to lead the turn as a semi bluff representing a straight or slow played flush to get the villain to fold, not sure if that is a good line as it turns my hand with decent equity into a bluff.

On the river i make the straight but it puts 4 cards to the spade flush on the board. Should i lead the river here for thin value as a bet fold situation say something like 1/3 pot? or is checking for a cheap showdown the best line. I checked at the time and the villain bombed the river almost pot sized and i decided to fold, i figured with such nitty stats it was unlikely he was pulling a bluff in this spot, is this a fair conclusion to reach?
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 03:47 PM
(#2)
nee0903's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 61
Hi Darkmajik,

I would probably be 3betting here pre flop..as we would be out of position against 2 players and are most likely to flop overcards..after which it would be difficult to continue..so i would be 3betting to gain initiative and probably make the fish fold his crap..Secondly. i feel JJ is a hand which can get u into trouble post flop against nits when u dont flop any overcards..So if u 3bet pre flop in this case ..the villain wont be calling u that offen with QQ+..So in those cases you can fairly think your hand is good preflop...When the flop comes 3 undercards ..i would probably check raise here and fold to a reraise ..and check fold the turn if we miss.. this is the line i would have taken ..But i might be wrong ..Wait for expert opinion..
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 06:11 PM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I definitely like the flat call preflop. If you 3-bet and the nit does anything but fold you're in bad shape, and your hand is wayyyy too strong to turn into a bluff there. ALSO, you want to keep the fish in. The nit's UTG open range is probably something like TT+, AK if even that wide. If you 3-bet he won't fold anything better than your hand. If he 4-bets you have to fold, and that sucks. So we call. In this spot we treat JJ as any other mid pair. We are mostly setmining, but we should probably check/call one street on any board without an ace, because due to hand combinations he does have AK fairly often.

This is an interesting flop. I think our best move here is to check/raise and fold to a reraise. We are turning our hand into a bluff, but I feel we will get folds from enough of his overpairs without a spade that it's worth a shot. We do expect him to c-bet this board pretty often. If he does anything other than fold we go into check/fold mode as his range to continue will have us crushed.

I think the turn is just a check/fold. With unimproved AK-no-spade, he's just going to shut down here most of the time, and I think the same with non spade QQ, KK, AA even. If he bets here he almost always has at least one spade. If he checks, you can win on a lot of rivers. Your straight or set if you hit will almost always be good, and you will win showdown against AK. If the river comes a spade you can bet it and put pressure on his entire range. I actually think that betting any card smaller than a Q that does not pair the board on the river if he checks the turn might be good as it puts even more likely straights, sets and two pair combos in your range.

When you hit your straight on the 4-flush board I definitely prefer leading to checking, since he's probably never betting a worse hand, but may call with one. His range is still very overpair heavy, along with a possible set of queens. His raising range has you crushed. I think betting around 30¢ to entice him to call with his weaker hands, and folding to a raise is best here. Against a player who likes to make hero calls you can bet bigger to look like a bluff, but that's not a nit's MO.
 
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Tue Apr 10, 2012, 08:04 PM
(#4)
darkmajik365's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 191
Thanks for your feedback so far guys, i didn't check raise postflop because although i classified him as a nit due to his preflop hud stats i hadn't seen enough of him postlop to be confident i could make him lay down overpairs without big spades, he may be nitty preflop but may be stickier post flop than a normal nit for example.
 
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Wed Apr 11, 2012, 05:40 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Darkmajik.

I think you are right that a villain this tight, especially one who may be tightening his already uber tight raise range when in EP, would probably be willing to 4bet most all of that shrunken range. If we simply credit him with about 1/3rd his range in EP, we can probably think he is only raising about a 3% range here.

A 3% range would probably consist of hands like: 99+ and AKs only, although a more realistic super tight EP range may vary a bit and include AKo, and drop 99.

Pesonally, I'd feel JJ has a bit too much value (even if only as a set mine hand) to want to 3bet and risk not getting to see the flop. The only way I'd like to 3bet and perhaps try to iso on the loose villain would be if:

A) I am preceived as very tight.
B) The tight villain will FOLD mega tight as well.

Since that is really not likely, I like your flat pre flop to close the betting.

To check our equity, we can reasonably use the following assumptions:

Tight villain = 3% range (because he opened utg, about 1/3rd his total 9% range)
Loose fish villain = 45% range (because he is probably slightly tighter than his 67% range calling a raise)
You = JJ

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,794,526 games 65.641 secs 697,651 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.216% 43.05% 01.16% 19715240 533331.17 { 99+, AKs }
Hand 1: 20.779% 20.44% 00.34% 9358717 156747.17 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 2: 35.005% 33.89% 01.11% 15520340 510151.67 { JJ }


---

This flop is pretty terrible for us though...

In my opinion, if you felt there was enough of a chance that you were AHEAD on this flop, I think you should have donk led here. It is quite un-likely the tight villain would raise you without value that is crushing your JJ given the highly coordinated texture, and such a raise could easily allow you to get out of dodge versus his tight range.

The problem with a donk lead though is that if the villain FLATS, you are probably locking yourself in to another bullet if a blank turn comes, and this could be quite costly is he is on KK with the Ks, and not AKo with the As.

In my opinion, I'd look at the reverse implied odds here and probably check/fold this flop simply because I have no real re-draw potential at all. This guy simply does NOT strike me as the type who would call a bet on an un-paired hand without a spade, and all the spades in his range include overs to you; his range is so tight about the BEST you can hope to find betting out over your check, or calling a donk lead (if you had made one), is a flush draw with 2 overs that has you as a pretty good math dog.

Sometimes an over pair really is not quite good enough to keep going on, and this looks like it can easily be one of those times, so it really doesn't make a lot of sense to feed more money in here without a set.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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