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Never complete flush draw!!!!

Never complete flush draw!!!! - Thu Apr 12, 2012, 09:33 PM
l0nghardroad's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 4
Hi Guys,
I don't know if anyone else here is experiencing the same **** as me..I have been keeping track of a few things and the one thing that stands out for me the most is how unlucky i am when it comes to flush draws!!!!

Ok, so we all know that if you went all in on the FLOP with a flush draw you would have 1/4 chance of completing your flush on the turn, yes? Ok, so we can now say you have a very good value 1/2 (50/50) chance of completing your flush on either the turn OR the river, yes?

Ok...so if you went all in on the flop 100 times with a flush draw, you would complete your flush 50 times and not complete 50 times (on paper anyway). Correct? Anyone Agree?

Well for me..out of 30 times when i have a flush draw on the flop, sometimes i push and sometimes i call a big chunk of my stack to 1 or more players, i have made my flush only 5 times!!

Is this just a bad beat or are flush draws really that bad in terms of odds?? According to my basic math, i should be hitting them 50% of the time (on either the turn OR the river)

Please someone clarify this for me as it is REALLY frustrating and if it keeps happening i will end up just calling small bets or just folding nut flush draws :/

someone help!


Thu Apr 12, 2012, 09:49 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,837
Hi l0nghardroad!

It's NOT 1/4 to complete a flush. There are 4 of the suit showing, so there are 9 left to hit. 9 outs times 2% per out per street (if you see both you get 2 streets) is 18% to hit on the turn and 36% to hit on either turn or river. Out of 100 times, instead of 50 times that the flush should hit, it's really only 36 times.
If you put 50% of the pot in on the flop, you only have a 36% chance to hit the flush, so it is actually a -14%EV play.
The %EV is the hand equity (36% here) vs the pot equity (50% if you put 1/2 the chips in).

Take a look at videos 25 and 26 from Dave's video section linked here. One is on odds and the other is on how to use pokerstove (free hand equity calculator). These two videos should be a big help to you.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Thu Apr 12, 2012, 10:07 PM
l0nghardroad's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 4
Hi John,
I see....now i understand I will check to vids out shortly also. Thank you so much for your help, very much appreciated, i think in the future i will not play so aggressively with draws as it really does eat my stack away and knock me out of tourneys all the time, it just doesn't pay off....

Thanks again John, much appreciated
Implied Odds - Sun Apr 15, 2012, 09:04 AM
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
Apart from the odds which as explained well if someone bets 50% of the pot it is a +EV to fold if you are on the flop and looking to hit your flush draw there is Implied Odds which means that even if you do a play which is a - or +EV and hit the card/cards you need you can take all his stack or a bigger pot. Though in case of you hitting a flush on the turn or the river might freeze the action since it is very visible and your opponent might not put more chips in the pot. While if you hit a set or straight which are concealed the opponent might be more willing to bet more as he might think he is still ahead or thinks you are bluffing.

Hope it helps.

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