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10NL Overplayed Big Slick, or solid fold/line?

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10NL Overplayed Big Slick, or solid fold/line? - Fri Apr 13, 2012, 08:12 AM
(#1)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
Villain is playing 31/22 with aggr fac/freq of 1.3/47 over 60 hands. I have 3 bet his steals a considerable amount of times (mostly for value, a couple of bluffs) so I definitely feel like he's capable of defending a little wider than usual.



Flop is just a standard cbet, nothing much to comment on. Feel his range is heavily weighted towards overpairs < KK, maybe some small pp which got stubborn pre after my frequent 3b tendencies (I haven't been going crazy but it's been him every time and imo it always stands out when one person at the table is 3b'ing you constantly), of which 2 are the effective nuts here. Some A highs/Straight draws are not out of the question since I definitely think he might peel one off on a texture where he won't be giving me credit automatically.

Turn, bink. Bet for value, thought about betting a little bigger but i don't think there are many fd's in his flop calling range, nor does he have many combos that are straight draws that he'll continue with when I fire turn.

River seems like a brutal card but I honestly didn't think it was too likely he had backdoored the flush, so I made a decent value bet of under half the pot. When he jammed it on me I snap folded, despite the odds being great I just don't think there's any hand that's jamming the river that doesn't have me beat (obv if it's a bluff then NH). At the very worst I could see him doing this with a slowplayed 5. His line really looks like a boat or 6/7dd that picked up outs on the turn, looking back I'm not as confident now in my play.
Any thoughts on the hand itself or my thought process very welcome!

-AK

Last edited by AceKingBlows; Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 10:40 AM.. Reason: Edited: the more I think about it the more I think i misplayed this pretty badly.
 
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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 08:49 AM
(#2)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
your fold on the river for 7 to 1, lol. Even if I am beat here I would like to pay him off and see what and how he plays. If he´d turn over 54o here, I am always welcoming him at the table, perhaps even search for him.

personally I think he had QJ of diamonds or something, where the tried to float you and picked up some additional outs. Furthermore if you are not willing to call an allin here, don´t bet.

Is it a standard C-bet? As you already mentioned you raised him a couple of times and then players tend you play back at you. I would have checked and evaluate, perhaps call since AK high could be the best hand here, he is not going to fold any PP here. Furthermore he might decide to bluff a hand like QJo. You will only fold out hands you have better equity against.

I am always a bit wary of players who I win pots from and who I raise a lot. Since they may be playing back at me, and I dont want to wind up in a big pot with just one pair.

You don´t have to win every hand!

The other hand he might have here are AA. Since you raised him a couple of times and he might decide to min-raise and allow you to bluff, and then continiue to slowplay.

I definately think you are beat here, but I would pay him off to see what he had.

hope it helps.
 
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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 09:11 AM
(#3)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
I think checking and evaluating is not an option on the flop - since if he bets I'm mucking or floating OOP, neither of which I like. I would cbet this board with 100% of my range here, even if i flopped the joint. I'm not giving up the lead and guessing for the rest of the hand. Though your point about not making a better hand fold is very valid, so maybe you're correct.

Check-calling the river might well have been smarter, but i don't know if I agree with the sentiment that "you can't bet here unless you're willing to call all in", again maybe you're right though.

Thanks for the comments
 
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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 10:01 AM
(#4)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
you are welcome,

the only point I am making here about not C-betting is that this guy could be steaming against you since you mentioned you raised him a couple of times.

normally I´d cbet this also.

good luck at the tables
 
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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 12:11 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi AKB,

Personally I would check and give him a chance to bluff, as I just don't think there's many worse hands that he can pay us off with on the river. He may well call the turn expecting us to bet the ace when it comes, but when we bet again on the end we lose those marginal hands would be my guess. We are not likely to lose value vs. worse aces as well since he may well value bet those himself if we check now.

I think this is a good fold, we can really only beat a bluff and this line is rarely going to be one. The only real question is would he overvalue something like AQ/AJ like this? Probably not, so just fold.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 12:16 PM
(#6)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
Ok thanks Dave, testament to how important position is - almost certainly would have lost less IP since I might have checked back turn and certainly would have checked back river if i'd bet turn. Plus I'd have gotten the info, oh well!
 
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Fri Apr 13, 2012, 12:17 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post
your fold on the river for 7 to 1, lol. Even if I am beat here I would like to pay him off and see what and how he plays. If he´d turn over 54o here, I am always welcoming him at the table, perhaps even search for him.

personally I think he had QJ of diamonds or something, where the tried to float you and picked up some additional outs.
He's getting 3.7-1, not 7-1, and the fold is good if he's beat significantly more often than this, which I think he is.

Quote:
Furthermore if you are not willing to call an allin here, don´t bet.
Not sure this applies to this spot. It definitely does not apply in a general sense, as there are a lot of situations where the optimal line is bet/fold.

In this case I think bet/fold is better than bet/call, as I don't expect us to be good much to this river action. If the guy overvalues Ax or is tilting against us (he might be a bit) then I like bet/call much better. Given that we really don't know the answer to the Ax or tilting questions too much, and he doesn't rate to have too many worse hands that will pay off our river bet, I think check/call is probably better still in this spot.

check/call > bet/fold > bet/call, in this specific case imo.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 

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