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Would you call even if most probably u r behind?

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Would you call even if most probably u r behind? - Sun Apr 15, 2012, 12:41 PM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
1raises and everyone calls.. I flop the lowest set someone bets I raise and he shoves. For me he can only have a straight but I have a redraw.. I call but in this case I had to fold right? I had around 20% right?



Etienne
 
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Sun Apr 15, 2012, 02:57 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Actually you are only behind 35:65, not 20:80. If the villain wouldn't three bet QQ or JJ preflop then T9 is reasonable but could they have held QJ as well? Against a hand of QJ or T9 you are the better side of a flip at 52:48. If you can't rule out QQ or JJ in addition to QJ and T9 then you are once again behind at 43:57.

Placing a villain on one specific hand is typically a mistake, unless you have information you haven't divulged.

I am making this call every time I given the situation as I see it.

Good decisions ftw!
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 12:30 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Etipac.

I have to agree with Joe, this is a call.

Just putting the opponent on a range of top 2 pair+ (QQ/JJ/QJ/T9) gives you roughly 42.8% equity.

The size of the pot after your raise and his shove is $25.90, and by calling you are risking $13.90 getting 1.86 to 1. You only need about 35% equity to break even on calling. Even if he rolls over his EXACT hand (T9h) ad shows you, you are right around break even on a call with 34.8% equity...

The only way you can fold is if you totally REMOVE top 2 pair hands form his range, and given that the SPR versus the effective stack (your's) was just under 4, I'd really have a hard time removing QJ from his shove range here.

Good call, bad luck. Next time pair the river and take down the monster pot!

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

92,070 games 0.016 secs 5,754,375 games/sec

Board: Jc Qd 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.778% 42.15% 00.62% 38811 574.50 { 88 }
Hand 1: 57.222% 56.60% 00.62% 52110 574.50 { QQ-JJ, QJs, T9s, QJo, T9o }


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:34 AM..
 

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