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Would you call even if most probably u r behind?

Would you call even if most probably u r behind? - Sun Apr 15, 2012, 12:41 PM
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
1raises and everyone calls.. I flop the lowest set someone bets I raise and he shoves. For me he can only have a straight but I have a redraw.. I call but in this case I had to fold right? I had around 20% right?

Sun Apr 15, 2012, 02:57 PM
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Actually you are only behind 35:65, not 20:80. If the villain wouldn't three bet QQ or JJ preflop then T9 is reasonable but could they have held QJ as well? Against a hand of QJ or T9 you are the better side of a flip at 52:48. If you can't rule out QQ or JJ in addition to QJ and T9 then you are once again behind at 43:57.

Placing a villain on one specific hand is typically a mistake, unless you have information you haven't divulged.

I am making this call every time I given the situation as I see it.

Good decisions ftw!
Mon Apr 16, 2012, 12:30 AM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Hi Etipac.

I have to agree with Joe, this is a call.

Just putting the opponent on a range of top 2 pair+ (QQ/JJ/QJ/T9) gives you roughly 42.8% equity.

The size of the pot after your raise and his shove is $25.90, and by calling you are risking $13.90 getting 1.86 to 1. You only need about 35% equity to break even on calling. Even if he rolls over his EXACT hand (T9h) ad shows you, you are right around break even on a call with 34.8% equity...

The only way you can fold is if you totally REMOVE top 2 pair hands form his range, and given that the SPR versus the effective stack (your's) was just under 4, I'd really have a hard time removing QJ from his shove range here.

Good call, bad luck. Next time pair the river and take down the monster pot!

Hope it helps.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

92,070 games 0.016 secs 5,754,375 games/sec

Board: Jc Qd 8s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.778% 42.15% 00.62% 38811 574.50 { 88 }
Hand 1: 57.222% 56.60% 00.62% 52110 574.50 { QQ-JJ, QJs, T9s, QJo, T9o }

Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:34 AM..

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