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2 NL 6 Max Multiway Flush Draw Shove

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2 NL 6 Max Multiway Flush Draw Shove - Sun Apr 15, 2012, 01:11 PM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474


Villains had strong hands but I couldn't read it by their minimal 3 bet.

Flush came and cards were in my favour. Shoving all in with $1.15 for a $1.12 pot + my $0.20 initial call. Had 15 outs which meant it's a 1:2 card odds. I thought if they both called the pot would have become 1:3 pot odds for me.

Sorry for my bad fundamentals but what's the way to analyse this situation and was this a good play?
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 12:15 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Again AwesomeNW.

To be honest AwesomeNW, without info it is pretty hard to really know if your call pre flop was good or not.

All you state is:

Villains had strong hands but I couldn't read it by their minimal 3 bet.

Just for your own info, small raises can be much stronger than big ones.

Realistically though, you CAN potentially read their hands (or at least 1 of the hands) as strong...

Check out this link: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy...l/gap-concept/

The thought behind this concept is that once you have raised here, you've expressed strength.

The 3betting opponent then must either be "bluffing" (betting in the hope you fold), or he is value betting.

If he is value betting he has to think that his hand is stronger than that with which he'd normally raise in order to be better than the one you'd raise to open; so his 3bet range is significantly tighter than his raise range if done for value. Based upon how often you have seen him try bluffs, you can get a guage of the sort of hand strength he might hold here.

The Gap concept also says that in order to CALL a 3bet, you must have a hand that would tend to be stronger than one with which you'd make a 3bet yourself. This means when the BB flats, he really "should" hold a hand that he feels is STRONGER than one he might think the BTN would 3bet. This is true because by flatting, he leaves himself just 1 way to win the pot (by holding the best hand), whereas had he RAISED he could potentially fold out better hands...see?

So when you see an aggressive action by an opponent, that person could well be weak and just applying pressure, but a CALLER is seldom weak...unless he has shown himself willing to call extremely lightly in most all circumstances. You do not give us information on the play tendencies of these guys, but the dynamic itself is easily one where AJs could be in serious trouble.

Check out these videoes To help you figure out when over calling the 3bet in spots like these may be a good idea, and when it might be better to just get away from your hand:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ing-Essentials -> helps you to know when and why people might 3bet
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ice-by-Example -> helps with ranging opponents, and assessing your hand relative to that.
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...Example-Part-2 -> part 2 of video above.
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...-to-PokerStove -> shows you how to use an equity calculator to test your ranging thoughts.

You did flat along...

And you flop a monster draw.

At this point, I think I'd favor making it possible for me to play for stacks here by raising over the donk lead by BB. You have roughly 46.5% equity versus a range consisting of JUST QJ/sets/QQ+, and are basically a coin flip on this flop. Versus 2 palyers with identical ranges to this, you have roughly 38.4% equity to triple if both call.

By shoving, and getting just 1 caller, you'd be risking $1.35 for a chance to win $3.02 (2.23 to 1), and you'd only need about 30.9% equity to break even (you'd have 46.5% versus a VERY tight range). If both opponents called, you'd be risking $1.35 to possibly win $4.37 (3.23 to 1), and you'd only need about 23.6% to break even (you'd have about 38.4% versus BOTH players having that very tight range).

All flatting can do for you here is possibly see your equity FALL (if a blank hits the turn), or see the willingness of opponents to stack off possibly DECREASE (if you hit one of your outs). Because of this, I'd shove a mosnter draw like this right away on the flop in the decent sized pot already created...

Hope it helps.

-JDean

P.S.

Poker Stove Data vs. 2 callers:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

953,568 games 0.031 secs 30,760,258 games/sec

Board: 9s 8s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.817% 27.40% 03.42% 261276 32587.50 { QQ+, TT-88, QJs, QJo }
Hand 1: 38.365% 36.73% 01.64% 350250 15591.00 { AsJs }
Hand 2: 30.817% 27.40% 03.42% 261276 32587.50 { QQ+, TT-88, QJs, QJo }

...and Poker Stove Data vs. 1 caller:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.000 secs 7,128,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 8s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.047% 51.43% 01.62% 18330 576.00 { QQ+, TT-88, QJs, QJo }
Hand 1: 46.953% 45.34% 01.62% 16158 576.00 { AsJs }


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Apr 18, 2012, 10:19 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks a lot! Still in the midst of digesting the videos. Gap concept struck me the most. Will prove to save me money in the long run. Good info!
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 03:57 PM
(#4)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
in this situation should we not look at the odds we are getting pre flop and call the week raise looking to hit a good flop like this one?
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 09:48 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerspants View Post
in this situation should we not look at the odds we are getting pre flop and call the week raise looking to hit a good flop like this one?
Hi Pokerpants.

Yes, we should DEFINITELY look at the odds...

The idea is we need to think about the ranges we are facing. Let's say the small 3bettor has around a 10% range to 3bet small. And Let's say the CALLER has around a 5% range to call. Our Equity with AJs is:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,850,918 games 86.343 secs 588,940 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.349% 22.70% 02.65% 11543078 1347347.50 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 31.062% 28.65% 02.41% 14569613 1225721.50 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 43.589% 41.24% 02.35% 20970302 1194856.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


25.349%...

Now, you'd really need to be pretty CERTAIN your hand was good to continue, since a committment decision will rush up quite quickly on you in a pot that has grown this large relative to the short stack. That means with a 3bet and a CALL, hitting 1 pair on your hand probably isn't enough to give you that surety (if you spike an A you may be out kicked, and if you spike a J you may be facing an over pair+). We'd also not be able to play 1 way draws very well in a pot this size, so we would need to flop 2 pair+ or a strong 2 way draw, like the one actually flopped, to continue. What are our odds of that?

Flopping 2 pair, pairing each of our hole cards: 2.02%
Flopping trips, using 1 of our hole cards: 1.347%
Flopping a full house: 0.092%
Flopping 4 of a kind: 0.01%
Flopping a flush: 0.842%
Flopping a straight: LESS than 0.327%

Total chance: ~4.6%

We do have around a 10.944% chance to flop a flush draw, but as I state above, strong 1 way draws will be pretty hard to play in a pot that has grown this large already. Our chance to flop an 8 out straight draw is around 2.5%, and if you multiply the 2 totals together, you get our chance to hit BOTH: 0.2736%

Altogether, that gives us a little less than 5% of flops that are "good" for us when we have AJs versus a 3bettor and a caller with these ranges...

So about the LAST thing you'd want to do is CALL in the "hope" of seeing a good flop, because by calling the only way you have to win is by holding the best hand. You cannot really RAISE AJs in this spot, because it is quite un-likely you will get folds by strong hands willing to 3bet and/or call a 3bet, and with the ranges I posited you really cannot get calls by lesser hands (the OP did not give info on the ranges, so I provided them). That leaves only 1 real option...

FOLD.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Apr 21, 2012, 05:49 AM
(#6)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
sorry if i sound like a idiot but what your saying here is because of the opps ranges we are looking at a 5% chance to hit a good flop or 20:1 and we need to call 15% of the pot or ~7:1 odds is my math and thinking right here?
 
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Sat Apr 21, 2012, 06:59 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerspants View Post
sorry if i sound like a idiot but what your saying here is because of the opps ranges we are looking at a 5% chance to hit a good flop or 20:1 and we need to call 15% of the pot or ~7:1 odds is my math and thinking right here?
No worries at all Pokerpants!

Essentially it boils down to this:

- You have no clue if you will flop anything at all.

- Even if you DO flop 1 pair, that may not be enough to win.

- The pot has already grown so large that there is quite little chance you will be able to play a one way (8 or 9 out draw) effectively, as the money is quite likely to be going into the pot very soon after the flop, if not on the flop.

- the chances of you flopping MORE than 1 pair, or more than an 8 or 9 out draw, are quite slim, and you are getting no where near the roughly 20 to 1odds you;d need to try...

Ergo...it is a fold most likely.

If BOTH the villains are extremely wide, there is a possibility you could re-shove AJs for value, but it would take on the order of a 15% 3bet range AND a 15% flat range of a 3bet oop to give you the right equity; this is very wide indeed.

You really cannot call (per the gap concept) with a hand like AJs and see what the flop brings though, as that simply leaves you too committed to a large pot if you do flop a 1 pair hand. You are going to un-necessarily stick yourself for your entire stack if you do hit a 1 pair hand, and that could lead you to lose the max.

See?

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sat Apr 21, 2012 at 07:02 AM..
 
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Sat Apr 21, 2012, 09:53 AM
(#8)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
i understand and thank you for taking the time to explain it to me. it has changed the way i think about pot odds pre flop now.
 

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