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Bingo for boys

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Bingo for boys - Sun Apr 15, 2012, 07:09 PM
(#1)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962


Even as I called the all in with my As my good lady said I bet you lose. Even when I hit the Ace on the flop, I saw the straight and flush possibilities instantly. For good measure he hit both!

I see this happening all the time, even tonight at live training, it happened so many times to so many players to be outside the realms of reasonable probability.

I know the standard response to these sort of questions and that testing and audits by Cigital verify the randomness of the RNG on Pokerstars. Yes that is true they verified it the last and only time in 2010. As an avid reader of blogs and other forums this would seem to be true and the question remains why Pokerstars does not release much more definitive data on the RNG and test it more frequently.

I found this blog, ok I did not find it, my better half dragged it out of the internet after spending many days over Easter watching suck out after suck out not only for myself but for player after player after player.


When I mentioned this to Dave in live training that my good lady described online poker as bingo for boys, he laughed, and said only for some. I laughed too at the time but when I see things like this happen again, again and again I start to wonder even though I have been the right side of it as well.

Now I know I will take a massive amount of stick for this a la Holdemace, but it should make for some interesting discussion

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by gmanwicksy; Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:44 AM.. Reason: remove link
 
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Sun Apr 15, 2012, 09:08 PM
(#2)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Hey TC, I will be the first to bite I guess. I don't know how many times when I have just 2 tables up and get dealt Q2s at both out of 21,000 tables running at the time that this should statistically happen. If it is statistically possible then it will occur right!
I don't know how many times when I am statistically ahead even if it is 51/49 fav and lose the majority of the time this is supposed to occur but when you are on a down streak it will happen and has happened many times.
I can't tell you how many times when we are 4 handed that the short stack doubles through to come back and win that is supposed to happen but it is possible so it will occur.
I have seen more bad beats than a red headed orphaned kid and you have and others have as well and it will continue to happen.
Whether online poker is rigged or jacked for action or not truly random is not going to change. The poker sites provide a product for us to have at our beck and call 24/7 and they know we are addicted to it!
We really only have 2 options as we are never going to prove one way or the other and those two options are keep playing, studying getting better and working hard to profit as many have done through the great material and help at PSO or Quit playing.

Giddy Up!
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 12:13 AM
(#3)
RedLetterman's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 665
The most frequent complaint I hear / see in chat, in comments on PS TV and even today in the Home Games video sessions is the one about the bigger stack winning with miracle rivers when the small stack got it in good with the best hand and had the big stack effing dominated.

And we just saw another one.

The talking heads at 2plus2 etc, you know, the ones who call us fish..... They will say the 65% - 70% miracle win rate you've noticed is not taken over a sufficient number of hands. A 5,000 hand sample isn't good enough. It must be at least a quarter million hands to be truly representative. I happen to believe these math / comp wizards. Thing is, no one has ever posted such a study.

The problem seems simple enough. Post the results of a proper sample. A talking head at 2plus2 must have access to such numbers. Certainly Poker Stars does. There you go. Step away from the Doritos, turn off the porn or WoW and get down and do it sharky. Problem solved. Talk silenced. End of speculation rumor and innuendo.

(Or perhaps only the beginning .............. Maybe that's why it hasn't yet been done.)
 
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Hi guys! - Mon Apr 16, 2012, 01:00 AM
(#4)
gmanwicksy's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 861
I know bad beats are hard to take, they happen to me all the time too, but I also seem to give them back alot also. Here is link showing everything you need to know about the Random Number Generator......... http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/

Thanks for choosing PokerStars and being part of the PSO community.

Good luck in your games!
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:19 AM
(#5)
RedLetterman's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 665
I believe the RNG is the best it can be at this moment in time and that Poker Stars is the best poker site on the planet despite them not allowing me a name change.

A thousand mea culpas for my response to the Cat, one that, depending on who you are, encourages paranoia, the questioning of authority, the status quo or the existence of Santa.

The first complete line of this missive will remain my mantra


RedLetterman
Humble Fish





(Name should be ****** but what can you do eh?)
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 02:55 AM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post


Even as I called the all in with my As my good lady said I bet you lose. Even when I hit the Ace on the flop, I saw the straight and flush possibilities instantly. For good measure he hit both!

I see this happening all the time, even tonight at live training, it happened so many times to so many players to be outside the realms of reasonable probability.

I know the standard response to these sort of questions and that testing and audits by Cigital verify the randomness of the RNG on Pokerstars. Yes that is true they verified it the last and only time in 2010. As an avid reader of blogs and other forums this would seem to be true and the question remains why Pokerstars does not release much more definitive data on the RNG and test it more frequently.

I found this blog, ok I did not find it, my better half dragged it out of the internet after spending many days over Easter watching suck out after suck out not only for myself but for player after player after player.


When I mentioned this to Dave in live training that my good lady described online poker as bingo for boys, he laughed, and said only for some. I laughed too at the time but when I see things like this happen again, again and again I start to wonder even though I have been the right side of it as well.

Now I know I will take a massive amount of stick for this a la Holdemace, but it should make for some interesting discussion

Cheers,

TC
In the time I was here for $ I,like almost everyone else I'm guessing,had my moment of doubt about the RNG.

Then I downloaded a free trial of PT3,saw that ALL of my hands,from AA all the way down to 22 and everything in between,AKs to 32o---the whole 9 yards---were basically running within normal parameters of what they should win at,plus or minus a few points here and there in some instances.

Everyone goes through this Tony and it's natural. But if you let it affect your play then you're screwed,blued and tattooed.

I've played tourneys on here where there weren't any really eyebrow raising hands whilst simultaneously playing another one where someone taking down a pot with UNO cards couldn't be more off kilter than what you see happening.

IT IS WHAT IT IS and all the worrying,fretting and kvetching in the world isn't going to do anything but leave you focusing on what you can't control instead of what you can control.

Personally I believe that the RNG is square,that peeps talking about manipulating it by using their keys instead of their mouse or hesitating or speeding up their actions in certain spots are talking out of their asses. They also have been,unfailingly that I can see.LOSING players.

Success has many fathers the old saw goes but failure is always an orphan whom none want to claim but instead want to pawn off on others. It's easier for people to blame things that are beyond their ability to affect than it is to take responsibility when they come up short. Not saying that this is where you're coming from,I know you take your game seriously and are diligent about trying to improve. But for many that is not the case.


Look at the hand here...

The McGuffin here is not so much the beat to me but the fact that this hand was played for stacks to begin with. The beat itself is pretty bad---84%<16% but certainly nothing mind boggling.

But look at the sheer ineptitude of our friend elmo's play that brought us to this pass. He open shoves 14bb to try and steal 1. With no antes even out yet. Is trying to steal your bb here with most ATC's OK? Sure,especially if he has you marked as a tight player. But 14bb is just a stupid,out of line raise. He leaves himself NO OUTS,no way to find his fold button if you come back at him and is setting himself up to lose 1/3 of his stack to try and increase it by a little less than 3% if you do fold. That's horrendous poker and if you look this guy up you'll see that elmo here has been "tickled" by the dummy stick pretty much non-stop since the day he downloaded the client. An adept player this situation would almost never happen--he/she would either muck the garbage hand and give you a pass or would lead out for a standard raise and fold when you come over the top.

Personally I always try to look at losing a big pot to a drooler like this as the cost of doing business and try to keep in mind that it's the occasional winning of a hand like this that keep s bad player like elmo,who probably believes poker is about NOTHING but luck,coming back.

Try to learn to embrace the beats after the initial burn Tony and that will serve you much better than starting down the primrose path of "it's rigged" or "it's set up for action" or whatever synapse appears to have alighted in your noodle for the moment.
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 12:10 PM
(#7)
RedLetterman's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 665
My reply was meant tongue in cheek for gmanwicksy's bot-like response. Was supposed to have included a blue box copied and pasted from the mod reply but that never showed up in the post. Sorry for fooling around.

I readily acknowledge Moxie's analysis and comment, including the opponent's ill-considered rationale in the hand Cat demonstrated. The opp's rationale aside, even if you move up in stakes you're going to get players who'll test you, push back at you with air, bully you with their stack or play any two cards.

(Interesting Irish poker player on the 2plus2 podcast this week. When they started showing hole card cams on TV he at first rebuffed the request to come and play. He said he didn't want others to see the shit he played. A now famous You Tube Hellmuth blow up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc against Dragomir somewhat demonstrates this.)

The RNG is straight up. Thinking about it one can only conclude there is no logical reason for it to be skewed to favor the big stack. Obviously the same RNG is used for cash games and tournament play and it would not be to Poker Stars' advantage in any way, shape or form to employ such a strategy.

It costs PS money each and every time someone reloads. Credit Cards typically charge the business anywhere from 1% to 5 % for transactions. It costs PS potential money every time someone leaves a table. One less player adding to the rake over a thousand tables adds up. A stacked player may not reload for a month, if ever.

We know the deck isn't set prior to the deal but that is the state of technology at the present time. "It is what it is."

I do not know why a quarter million hand sample result hasn't yet been made public but I'll bet the same sharp sharks at 2plus2 who uncovered the UB mess have done their analyses and aren't complaining. The complaints generally come from what they like to call 'the fish'. The whiners. The repetitive losers. That should tell you something.

We're not playing against bots. That'd be boring. People are unpredictable. That's the fun and the challenge.

Apologize again for playing the fool here in a previous post and / or egging Tony et al on.
 
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Mon Apr 16, 2012, 06:24 PM
(#8)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
I'm surprised no-one mentioned the term "rigtard" in this thread yet...

Here's a hand for you to laugh at:

 

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