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25c NLHE MTT $100 added / Bubble

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25c NLHE MTT $100 added / Bubble - Tue Apr 17, 2012, 01:27 AM
(#1)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
My intention pre-flop was to shove from the sb if the action was folded to me. I never got the opportunity.

However, this hand struck me as something important for bubble play. The big stack was scolded at the table for this play, but I think he made the right decision. The bubble burst 4 hands later thanks to him, partly, for taking out a shorter stack. There are 1100 chips in the pot before the cutoff ships. It seems to me that the big stack would expect to be a 2 to 1 underdog given his holdings. But is it worth while to call and take this kind of shot at the shorter stack on the bubble? Does this lend to the concept that in MTTs the more chips you have the less value they have as bubble approaches?
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I wish to learn more about bubble play, any comments, ideas, or stories would be appreciated.
 
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Tue Apr 17, 2012, 03:55 AM
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topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Hi Tonk,

This is a really interesting spot. The big stack does not have 2 to 1 in pot odds to call but I still think it is a reasonable play depending on opponent reads as well. I do not like his limp though; I would have raised the A7.

Having spent a great deal of time watching/studying Chewme for MTTs and Spacegravy for SnGs and just actually watching these tournies I have noticed that decisions to gamble often result in running deeper. I am not 100% sure of the concepts nor the math behind some of these plays, but wider shoving ranges both when short stacked and big stacked seem to be profitable in the long term against the shoving/ calling range of the average player, both because of fold equity and getting lucky with the board.

Indeed this was part of the point I was trying to address with my "bingo for boys" thread before being slapped on the wrist for questioning the integrity of the RNG which is apparently a "holy cow".

My hypotheses for what they are worth are as follows:

To run deep in an MTT, you need to be lucky as well as skilful. Your good hands need to hold and your marginal hands need to suck others out as well.

Playing nitty or waiting for only good hands to play reduces the probability of running deep because you need these all to hold up against your opponents.

Before the bubble, nearly everyone tightens up to min cash, and this can be exploited by playing more marginal hands based on position, stack sizes and player reads.

After the bubble breaks people seem to play much looser, I do not know if this is because they have made the money or if they have saw marginal hands win before the bubble and they feel they must loosen up to run deeper, but those who succeed in MTTs say it is the perfect time to tighten up.

I think that the truly differentiating factor between those that succeed and those that lose or break even is that the former group is playing poker whilst those of us in the latter group are playing cards.

I did hope for some insight into this in the "bingo for boys" thread but hopefully this thread will give the opportunity for much more meaningful discussion.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Tue Apr 17, 2012, 11:16 AM
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Tue Apr 17, 2012, 11:50 AM
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Hi Tonk Shuffle!

Here's the way that I'd look at it.

If I were the player with JJ, I like the shove here. I've got 14BB and there is already enough in the pot so that I gain an extra 30% to my stack if everyone folds.

The key info that I'd wonder about here is... were either of the two bigstacks calling stations? With both of them limping preflop, if I had to guess, I'd think that they probably were. Before black friday this was one of the tournies that I played basically everyday and the overwhelming majority of players that had a large stack by now were normally stations that were getting lucky.

Also, if I'm the player with JJ, I want a call and double up from a calling station.

If I were terre, then I'd have to call an extra 3340 into a pot that will be 8030 (41.6%). Now is where a read on the opp that has JJ would be mandatory.... how many hands have they been playing? This will determine the range to use for them in pokerstove to find out the hand equity.
Since I don't have a read on the opp, I'll find where this is an even EV play.
From pokerstove, if the opp is shoving the top 16.7% or wider, then it IS a positive EV play for the A7 to be calling here.

The key is ranging the opp with JJ. With a tighter range than 16.7%, the player with A7 should be folding. If the JJ player would shove wider than this, then A7 should be calling the shove. It'll all depend on a read of the JJ player.

Of course, I always have to remember that if the big stacks were stations, they could easily be married to any A or any two suited cards too... and if that's the case and I'm the player with JJ, I WANT the call.

A key that I use around the bubble is with reads on the opps and how often they'd fold. The more likely they are to fold, the more aggressive I want to be. I want to be accumulating chips when the opportunities present themselves and being able to range what an opp will shove with is a big part of it. Just because I may have chips doesn't mean that it's always correct to be calling or shoving because it's a big chip leak if the opp is not ranged correctly, making the play -EV.

One of the big keys to bubble play is to have reads on the opps and to take advantage of +EV situations and ones where the opps are likely to fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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I failed to mention - Tue Apr 17, 2012, 06:03 PM
(#5)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi Tonk Shuffle!

If I were the player with JJ, I like the shove here. I've got 14BB and there is already enough in the pot so that I gain an extra 30% to my stack if everyone folds.

Also, if I'm the player with JJ, I want a call and double up from a calling station.

Of course, I always have to remember that if the big stacks were stations, they could easily be married to any A or any two suited cards too... and if that's the case and I'm the player with JJ, I WANT the call.

A key that I use around the bubble is with reads on the opps and how often they'd fold. The more likely they are to fold, the more aggressive I want to be. I want to be accumulating chips when the opportunities present themselves and being able to range what an opp will shove with is a big part of it. Just because I may have chips doesn't mean that it's always correct to be calling or shoving because it's a big chip leak if the opp is not ranged correctly, making the play -EV.

One of the big keys to bubble play is to have reads on the opps and to take advantage of +EV situations and ones where the opps are likely to fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)
Thanks John,

I failed to mention that the player with JJ was fairly tight, and I thought at worst his range was 99+, AQo+, and maybe KJs+. I wish Pokerstove could work on Mac computers. I felt certain that he had a big pair, and if I were him I would have shoved as well. With that being said, in this situation I thought the JJ may as well have been dealt face up.

Both big stacks were looking for cheap flops. The first guy had a 'fit or fold style", but 'terremotoyo' also liked to pressure opponents with raises, and generally played well post-flop. From middle position I have always folded A7o, and play tighter on the bubble irrespective and regardless of stack size. The big stack must have known that he was an underdog, hoping his ace would crack a big pair.

What I am interested in is the actual monetary value of the play regarding the respective stack sizes. At the beginning of this tournament 1500 chips was worth $0.32.3 thanks to PokerStars adding $100 to the $0.25 buy-in. When the bubble burst having 1 chip left was worth $0.42 (min cash.) The total prize pool was $442.50, 1370 players, and 288 places paid. The winner received about $73, having gathered all the chips which numbered more than 2 million chips in total. For the winner the monetary value of 1 chip has gone down considerably. Do you see where I am going with this line of reasoning? It seems to me that at a certain ratio a big stack could shove any 2 cards at a smaller stack and it would be profitable on the bubble. Am I wrong about this? Is this what an ICM is used for? Have I provided enough information this time?

I guess what I am arguing is that both players possibly made the correct play, although 'call I guess' would have made the money if he had folded. 'Terremotoyo' left the door open for someone to shove behind him, and maybe his stack is too small to call. However with 'call I guess' shoving first, 'terremotoyo' gets to see if any else is going to call, including the other big stack, and get to be heads up in the pot.

Last edited by Tonk Shuffle; Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 06:08 PM.. Reason: grammar
 
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Tue Apr 17, 2012, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonk Shuffle View Post
What I am interested in is the actual monetary value of the play regarding the respective stack sizes. At the beginning of this tournament 1500 chips was worth $0.32.3 thanks to PokerStars adding $100 to the $0.25 buy-in. When the bubble burst having 1 chip left was worth $0.42 (min cash.) The total prize pool was $442.50, 1370 players, and 288 places paid. The winner received about $73, having gathered all the chips which numbered more than 2 million chips in total. For the winner the monetary value of 1 chip has gone down considerably. Do you see where I am going with this line of reasoning? It seems to me that at a certain ratio a big stack could shove any 2 cards at a smaller stack and it would be profitable on the bubble. Am I wrong about this? Is this what an ICM is used for? Have I provided enough information this time?
Hi Tonk Shuffle!

Honestly, IMO, it's way, way too early to be looking at this. ICM is more for when it gets down toward and especially at the final table.
The largest thing here is to get ITM, to get the 42 cents. Once ITM, there aren't any large pay jumps for a long while, just a bunch of smaller levels. Adding a level, or even 4-5 levels is not going to be that much of a jump in return.
Adding even 8-9k chips at this point in the tourney won't make that big of a difference in what a player gets back in return, unless they are parlayed into more chips to get to a final table.
The keys should be.. to get ITM.. then to get to the final table.. where the larger pay jumps are. The levels inbetween are not as important as the initial cash or the final table cashes.

The monetary value of any of these are basically....if I don't have enough chips to get ITM, then it's no value lost. If I have enough to get ITM and lose, then it costs me 42 cents. As extra value to the larger stack in this play... it's basically a negligible gain compared to the possibility of maybe not making the min cash.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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