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Oh it happened again......no surprises here

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Oh it happened again......no surprises here - Thu Apr 19, 2012, 11:13 PM
(#1)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
ok first things first,random number generator is in itself a wrong term, anyone who knows anything about a computer or programming,knows a program cant be truly random, not like the weather for instance ,in the last 3 tourneys i played (all pso league) i made quads 4 times and saw at least 4 other players make quads = 8+ quads in 3 tourneys that i witnessed there may well have been more,and many where made with 3 community cards,then theres this




now even though its a league game and survival is key ,
my opp raises before me i reraise all others fold,heads up he shoves over me pre flop,
no way any poker player with any idea is going to fold my hand in this position,so i call
this may seem irrelevant to the hand because of being all in preflop but its not,

i flop top set,had we not been all in theres still no way im gonna fold here,so lets go 1 step further,the board runs 4 spades,and lo and behold,my opp doesnt make a flush but still gets the only combination besides 10 10 that could beat me,

now i didnt write the so called "RNG" program, but to me my premium hand was doomed to failure and me busting from the moment it left the dealers hands and reached mine so to speak
,now these things happen in cash games all the time to,and to me as it is pre determined (i dont believe a certain number of mouse clicks etc, is what determined this outcome) it feels really unfair,

yes "thats poker" some will say,others will say "bad beat suck it up" but hows one supposed to feel anything but cheated when this happens,
at a cash table it wouldve hurt more losing many dollars,this might sound like a whinge and i guess to a degree it is, but its more about the "RNG" and why are hands like this generated so frequently?

i welcome pokerstars to have one of their programmers answer/respond to this question,to give all of us an answer straight from the horses mouth,tho i imagine it wouldnt satisfy anyones curiosity in the least,

i dont particularly call it rigged as i dont think the programs designed to target a specific player(s) (although i did notice a rip in my tin foil hat this morning) but certainly i call it jacked for action,

,in my opinion (we know im not a professional) i played the hand how it shouldve been played,and frankly how i think any of your team pros wouldve played it,

sadly this is poker school and where here to learn how to play the game,make correct decisions etc,and so many times when we do our pre determined fate punishes us,it takes any skill from the game and detracts from trying to learn any skill,thus rendering the school useless to me

, im starting think why bother,why not just throw my chips/dollars in with any 2 cards accept it for what it is a GAMBLE and cross my fingers and hope for luck,maybe try a few different sites see if the programmings the same elsewhere,

from what ive seen your more chance of winning with 2nd or 3rd best or worse starting hand 9/10 times,

maybe i just give up and use my online bankroll to buy lottery tickets instead and save my poker money to go play at the casino.

disheartening and depressing to feel like this


hope the edit helps you readers, take a second and if you still cant read it or dont understand the point
being made your vision may need help in many aspects not just plain sight

Last edited by milehigh0874; Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:44 AM.. Reason: to help readers
 
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Thu Apr 19, 2012, 11:45 PM
(#2)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
Wow, I couldn't even read that - do us all a favor and hit enter every so often.

As for the hand, you did nothing wrong, you just got smacked upside the head by the deck. You have to get used to this, since it's going to happen.

Aces will lose one in five, you just ran into one of them.

 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 12:04 AM
(#3)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
Aces will lose one in five, you just ran into one of them.
This is one of the keys to tilt management. Keep in mind that you will lose 20% of the time, and it doesn't matter HOW you lose, whether it's to a straight, trips, quads, royal flush.... Those hands are still included in the 20%.

Can't respond to the rest of the post, I'm unable to read it.

....
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 12:21 AM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
hey milehigh,tough,tough beat there...

1. Are you running HEM or PT3? If so look at your %'s vis-a-vis all hands from AA-22 and non-pairs all the way from top (AKs) to bottom (32o) and then compare your numbers to what they should be. I'll bet with anything approaching a decent sample size that you'll be within a couple points,plus or minus,in most of the hands.

Remember one of the biggest cruelty's and certainties of this game---it's not IF you're going to get donked or bad beat but WHEN. Because it IS going to happen,and the more you play the more it will happen. And many times it will be in spots where you're running deep for a big result and it gets snatched away from you. That's why consistency is so key---you have to keep plugging away and giving yourself multiple shots at that brass ring. Stick with it,stay the course,keep making good decisions the rule and it will come.

2. Whilst it may not be possible to have a truly "random" number generator,I'll just concede the point and let people more knowledgeable on the subject (that would be pretty much everyone ) debate that,it is true that at Stars the deck is shuffled,then SET,and then dealt. The order of the cards does not change and since Stars has no way of knowing how any individual player will react to the cards they have and the action in front of them it's hard to see how they can "tweak" outcomes.

Look at this hand...many here may have shipped their stack with the aces in your spot. Would the villain have then folded? Maybe,maybe not.

3. The juiced for action argument is one I hear a bit. In my opinion I just have a hard time buying it.

To my way of thinking there are a lot of players at the higher levels,and even in the higher micro stakes if they grind big volume,who are either making their living at this or at least supplementing their income in a serious way. And more than a few of them are going to be very hip to computer programs,the fall of the cards,etc.,etc.

Were there a pattern or hijinks going on someone would have tipped to it by now (lots of someones actually) and proven it.

4. This is the biggest problem for the whole argument of it being rigged,juiced,jacked---whatever---to me...

...WHY???

Seriously. Stars has no stake in the outcomes,they make their money from the rake.

Clearing players off the tables so they load more games up faster? Meh,if they were doing that and having a lot of those same peeps start to think that it's juiced to do that and they're not getting a square game as a consequence what's the likely result? Exactly...players thinking the same thing you've already offered here---maybe MY money is better spent elsewhere.

That would be rather short-sighted of them don't you think?

And never mind the fact that if this were indeed going on and ever got out...well once the sites integrity is suspect what do they have left at that point?

A lot of empty tables is what.

Given what they rake in,every day,like clockwork...they would have to be idiots of the first order to be risking what they can make on the up an up by being cheats.

Stars may be many things but one thing I've never seen them as being myself is idiotic.

Just my 2 cents (speaking of 2 cents those .02 hypedonk 990 turbos are great tilt release...).

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:24 AM..
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 12:35 AM
(#5)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
i will edit the post so you can read it but perhaps try gettin some glasses for yourself and the fact that it was aces beaten isnt my point

its the whole texture of the hand and the cards that where coming regardless

perhaps you are a number spitting drones that can rattle off a statistic or a percentage but put no consideration into the so called RNG

or maybe dont understand such things so just pass it off as ok it fits into a percentage or statistical range ive seen or been told so its got to be right

heres the heads up i can tell you aces will be beaten 70% of the time and you cant argue that because i can simply say you havnt played enough hands yet to have a proper sample,

bottom line is you never can because its an infinately growing and changing statistic as long as cards are being dealt it can change but to you i say ignorance is bliss


hope this was easier on your eyes
 
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re post - Fri Apr 20, 2012, 01:04 AM
(#6)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
thnx for your input moxie valid and worthwile as always and my last reply was not in response to your post as it wasnt here when i was writing it

please understand im not calling them cheats or saying its a rigged game as stated in my original post

but hands like the one shown as an example are very common and do seem jacked to induce action........no one likes a boring game why do you think so many hands are won or lost on the river with a few players usually having a reasonable arguement for contesting the pot

in a raked game if no ones betting theres no rake made and stts as another example where rake is taken when the game fills, must end at some stage regardless and are much harder or impossible to gauge because of all the shoving that happens at the bubble stages

as for the shuffling all poker games live or not the cards are shuffled, set then dealt so i see no problem with that ,i would actually have a problem with it being any other way as the burn cards do their job in a fair and reasonable manner imo

i can give you a formula that will see you cash in most large scale mtts, whilst you wont make many final tables or really deep runs, i can gaurantee if you follow it you will cash a large percentage of the time mainly minimum-medium cashes, but still cashes none the less

Last edited by milehigh0874; Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 01:09 AM.. Reason: add info
 
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yup - Fri Apr 20, 2012, 01:21 AM
(#7)
luc flush21's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 33
BronzeStar
yup its wierd how the cards come out sometimes i got my aces beaten by 92 3 times in 1 hour playing sit n goes but then i got aces 3 times in a row and was lucky enough to c 3 all ins aswell and came out the vicktor i just played a small quilifier skill leage and 7 places paid lost with my poker tens to aq suited ace comming on the river sometimes no matter how good u play its all up to the cards we all go thorugh the same bs playing poker just gotta keep the faith and dont let bade beats cramp ur styile lol well gl man
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 03:25 AM
(#8)
mcrissinger's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,650
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post
thnx for your input moxie valid and worthwile as always and my last reply was not in response to your post as it wasnt here when i was writing it

please understand im not calling them cheats or saying its a rigged game as stated in my original post

but hands like the one shown as an example are very common and do seem jacked to induce action........no one likes a boring game why do you think so many hands are won or lost on the river with a few players usually having a reasonable arguement for contesting the pot

in a raked game if no ones betting theres no rake made and stts as another example where rake is taken when the game fills, must end at some stage regardless and are much harder or impossible to gauge because of all the shoving that happens at the bubble stages

as for the shuffling all poker games live or not the cards are shuffled, set then dealt so i see no problem with that ,i would actually have a problem with it being any other way as the burn cards do their job in a fair and reasonable manner imo

i can give you a formula that will see you cash in most large scale mtts, whilst you wont make many final tables or really deep runs, i can gaurantee if you follow it you will cash a large percentage of the time mainly minimum-medium cashes, but still cashes none the less
Clock and fold to the bubble? Yep, that'll win you the PSO Skill League.

Dammit. I'm so tired of seeing this...

Other than a(goofy) league situation, LONG TERM good play wins out. Plain and simple.

Sorry you lost your $3 stack with AA against 72 on a penny table. Yeah, it sucks. Yeah, it happens.

Start trying to deal with the long term, and as TruminJoe always says, the GOOD DECISIONS.

Do that, always, and you're going to start winning. The math(no matter how stupid it might be,) dictates that it is so.

Milehigh, if your aces are beat 70% of the time, YOU NEED TO PROVIDE A PROPER SAMPLE.

Seriously. Nobody is ever going to believe you, and that's just that.

But I hope things turn around for you soon.
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 07:37 AM
(#9)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
No need to be rude, Milehigh, we're just trying to help you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post
heres the heads up i can tell you aces will be beaten 70% of the time and you cant argue that because i can simply say you havnt played enough hands yet to have a proper sample
I have 100k+ hands since I switched to HEM2, is that enough? Against a lower pocket pair such as TT, you will lose 20% of the time when you're all in preflop, as in this case. My stats show that I have won 89.8% of the hands, and I even filtered out walks and uncalled preflop raises (93% if I include them). The issue is rather that you tend to focus on the times you lose, or that you believe that aces are invincible (which isn't uncommon, by the way). Either that, or that you have a very small sample size. There are also databases with hands in the millions (AND THE MILLIONS) that confirm the numbers. Either way, I've proven you wrong.

Quote:
perhaps you are a number spitting drones that can rattle off a statistic or a percentage but put no consideration into the so called RNG
Not true. I am very aware of the fact that nothing can be "truly randomized" in a technical aspect, but Pokerstars' RNG has been tested and approved a gazillion times and there's no way to predict how a hand is dealt, which you can read more about on the PS website.

Really, what you're actually saying is that no one ever, in the history of poker through all eternity to the end of time, should be able to hit four cards for a straight.

Pokerstars has been around for over ten years and has had millions of players. If what you're actually saying was true, I'm pretty sure someone would have noticed by now.

EDIT: By the way, it seems like everything takes a 180 degree turn when it comes to what you want, and instead the exact opposite happens. Do us all a favour and make a wish that Justin Bieber's plane doesn't crash.

....

Last edited by Feskprins; Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:47 AM..
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 09:15 AM
(#10)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
Pokerstars' RNG has been tested and approved a gazillion times and there's no way to predict how a hand is dealt, which you can read more about on the PS website.
I am not questioning the RNG at all here, just the facts: a "gazillion times" is actually twice: once by BMM International in 2004 and the other by Cigital in 2009, certificate released in 2010.

It is noteworthy though that BMM is no longer mentioned by Pokerstars and there is no longer any mention of the press release and findings of the the study for Pokerstars by Cigital on the Cigital website. This could be something to do with the events of Black Friday and that Cigital are a US company though.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 09:29 AM
(#11)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I am not questioning the RNG at all here, just the facts: a "gazillion times" is actually twice: once by BMM International in 2004 and the other by Cigital in 2009, certificate released in 2010.
I intended to include independent analyzers and perhaps even tracking players in "gazillion" and not just the formal ones. I see your point though, not gonna argue with that.

....
 
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re post - Fri Apr 20, 2012, 06:26 PM
(#12)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
maybe theres no reason to be rude....but i hope it crashes through your roof happy now
never did i say aces are unbeatable or that players cant draw four cards to win, or that MY AA where beaten 70% of the time
and since you ask 100k+ hands no its not enough really,

and just because you use some piece of software that you use says your aces have held up XX.X% of the time means little to me, as i said i care little about the AA debates that end up in the forum on a regular basis

out of curiosity though i want to know ,the people who responded to the thread with comments like AA will win 80% of the time, if the stats said over milliions of hands that AA had won 45% of the time, would the same people then tell us AA is not a monster hand, iits less than 50/50 chance to win,

as its a program who decided upon writing it that AA would win 80% of the time or 55 would win 33% of the time and so on ,thats not how it works by the way... player actions also determine outcomes

as far as being rude, well i was called a liar by mcrissinger "no one will ever believe you"= liar,for a comment i didnt make,i never said a word about MY AA hands


the only thing i actually stated that could even in some round about way be linked to a % if you tried real hard, was about the number of quads id seen in the space of 3 tourrneys,which is now over 12+ from 4 tourneys....but im sure this is the norm and you will find it in % archives somewhere and please feskprins the emoticon you posted showing your mums 15 minutes of fame was far ruder than anything i did
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 06:59 PM
(#13)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post
never did i say aces are unbeatable
Never did I say that you said that aces are unbeatable. Don't say things that I've said that you said which I haven't said that you haven't said that you've said that I said.

Quote:
out of curiosity though i want to know ,the people who responded to the thread with comments like AA will win 80% of the time, if the stats said over milliions of hands that AA had won 45% of the time, would the same people then tell us AA is not a monster hand, iits less than 50/50 chance to win
No we wouldn't, because there's still a mathematical formula to calculate how often a hand will win, so even if it doesn't stick to the statistical standard after millions of hands (which is extremely unlikely) the chance of winning with AA vs TT is still the same.

Quote:
as its a program who decided upon writing it that AA would win 80% of the time or 55 would win 33% of the time and so on ,thats not how it works by the way... player actions also determine outcomes
I clearly stated earlier that we were all-in preflop, completely taking the human factor out of the equation. I don't wear glasses, but you can borrow my non-existent pair if you like. I want them returned by wednesday.

Quote:
the only thing i actually stated that could even in some round about way be linked to a % if you tried real hard, was about the number of quads id seen in the space of 3 tourrneys,which is now over 12+ from 4 tourneys
Until you post the hand histories, including the hand #'s, I'm going to call you a liar. And a Belieber, which is way worse.

You're probably not even serious but I'm having great fun!

....
 
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re post - Fri Apr 20, 2012, 07:26 PM
(#14)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
im completely serious about the quads ,i will gladly post entire tournament histories for you to sort threw if you dont believe me ,im not a liar but you are being very childish . if i post the quads and you see it as a fact in front of you ,although it may be a statistical anomally , it happened, it is true and so you would have to admit the possibility it happens with other scenarios such as your AA stats, , perhaps you will pull your head out of your arse about other things


as long as people like you continue with your attitude of 'it wasnt my experience so everyone that posts otherwise is a liar' or similar to this-----the forum as a whole will continue down the path of the last few months with less and less people even bothering to contribute PS big ups on increasing your mums fame by 3-4 XXXX and by the way your gazillion=2 lmfao i will disregard anything , particularly a statistic posted by you


i couldve started a thread in the PSO non poker related section,titled the same thing, about the frequency of me waking with morning erections and without reading properly , you would have jumped in with some stupid rant /dribble about the statistcs your HUD holds for AA


as for your statement about trying to help PPFFFF you will notice it wasnt asked for, this wasnt posted in the HAND EVALUATION section imo take your knowledge somewhere it may be useful and go teach finger painting at your local pre school

however your efforts dont go unrewarded as it is a new day you may wear the crown awarded to mcrissinger yesterday

Last edited by milehigh0874; Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:47 PM.. Reason: remove info
 
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Fri Apr 20, 2012, 10:33 PM
(#15)
mcrissinger's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,650
BronzeStar
Mile, yeah, I assumed you were talking about YOUR AA being cracked 70% of the time. How else were we supposed to read that comment? You have proof that 70% of EVERY AA dealt loses? When everyone here that has tracked a proper sample size reports that ALL numbers fall in line with the estimated percentages?

Wasn't really calling you a liar as much as I was telling you to provide proof of your claims and BEGGING you to sit at my table when US players are allowed back on PStars.

You are EXACTLY the type of player I want at my table every time I play.

But you have fun railing against the RNG, it'll do wonders for your skills.
 
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re post - Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:14 AM
(#16)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
its there in print you did call me a liar and interpret it however you want my statement wasnt about MY AA stats i said " i could tell you that AA will lose 70% of the time " and you cant really disprove me although your experience, and stats collected by your hud to date may suggest otherwise, you cant tell me what will happen in the future, as for american players being allowed to play i could care less, but if it will make you fell better i ll come sit at the play money tables with you

it wasnt a claim i was merely making a point

just out of curiosity who makes the ESTIMATE and is an estimate anymore than a calculated GUESS

Last edited by milehigh0874; Sat Apr 21, 2012 at 12:19 AM.. Reason: add info
 
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words of wisdom beleive me - Sun Apr 22, 2012, 04:45 PM
(#17)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
This sounds like a post i could of certainly started, questioning the integrity of the rng and so on,
I see this regular on here and totally believe you milehigh,your aces may be on the losing side against what the maths suggests.
However your aces are losing not because of the rng, but because its only one pair all said and done with limited outs.
The whole concept of the maths in poker i find amusing and all the people that think the maths are the exact i find amusing.
The game of poker is random, so therefore maths can not determine randomness, the way you play an hand can help you even out the randomness.
Like i have said before, you could not live long enough to have the exact maths as randomness is a line of infinite that fluctuates with spikes under and spikes over, basically meaning the wins and losses.
Imagine betting on a horse thats favourite, the horse looses, could be down to the jockey,could be down to the horse, but although its favourite its still not gauranteed to win.
Beleive it or not milehigh you are now not battling to beat the players anymore,but battling to win and beat lady luck it self, i think you are now seeing it, and i do not mean conspiracies m8t, i mean pro poker, i see it ,i can do it,but my disipline is terrible.
I hope you understand what i am saying here, and i hope you start to get them gut feelings that are normally correct, remember this, a mtt on here is probably equivalent to a 3 day live event,playing aces causiuosly now and again is the way to go.
gl
 
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Sun Apr 22, 2012, 05:04 PM
(#18)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post

i said " i could tell you that AA will lose 70% of the time " and you cant really disprove me although your experience, and stats collected by your hud to date may suggest otherwise, you cant tell me what will happen in the future, as for american players being allowed to play i could care less, but if it will make you fell better i ll come sit at the play money tables with you

it wasnt a claim i was merely making a point

just out of curiosity who makes the ESTIMATE and is an estimate anymore than a calculated GUESS
Ok

More utter nonsense - and why?

Anybody can disprove your claim (obviously a ridiculous claim) that AA will lose 70% of the time.

So long as the cards are dealt fairly. (that has to be a given)

Because the game is predicated on Aces being the strongest hand. Thems the rules, that is how hand strength is decided. AA+ XYZ beats any cc+XYZ

so mathematically - and in the long term in reality AA is the strongest starting hand.

And yes I can tell you what will happen in the future in this context - AA will remain the strongest starting hand until they change the rules and say deuces are the strongest card.

AA is 'best' because it is predesignated so in this game (Texas NLHE ).

It statistically holds up because it is preset to do so.

Arguing against the strongest hand is ridiculous. Getting beat very often with it is a different matter.

Ed
 
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re post - Mon Apr 23, 2012, 03:18 AM
(#19)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
ok it may sound utter nonsense AA is the strongest starting hand yes thats a fact it aint gonna change and im not disputing that
but the winning % with that hand can and will inevitably change whilst it may have an expected value of 80% that means nothing, it does not mean it will win 80% of the time which ed you seem to agree with in some way by your last comment

, ive done some homework on RNG s and computers and their capabilities,the mathematical algorithms used in them and their relativity to online poker sites as a business, i will post them in the forum once i get a little time,probably later in the week, and if my research is wrong/incorrect anyone from the PSO team or pokerstars is more than welcome to tell me im wrong and point out where and how im wrong, if my findings dont make sense to anyone or im completely wrong , i will gladly eat my slice of humble pie

people may read it and say " utter BULL@#$%" , or " hhmmm that seems to make sense " or "yes i agree completely", whatever the opinions of others is i dont mind its their choice.

***deleted due to being against the TOS JWK24***

Last edited by JWK24; Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM..
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 07:32 PM
(#20)
Herkstwin's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 255
Milehigh - You started an interesting discussion and took it to levels below contempt. What good does it do for you or your image to disparage others and make unsupported claims about RNG's and poker probabilities? You can do better.

The study of probability and statistics clearly covers the variance we experience at the poker tables. Quads will happen, over a sufficient number of hands, a certain number of times. BUT, in the short term, quads could show up, as you saw, much more often than probability theory would expect.

None of us, including 100K+ hands, has a sufficient sample size to "prove" us right or wrong when we say 80% of the time, AA will win. But, with 100K+ hands and a tool to help analyze the results, the results do tend to approach the expectations of probability, even though we are far from an infinite number of hands.

However, technology/software exists to allow generation of millions and millions of hands, which as the numbers increase show the ACTUAL results trending towards the EXPECTED results. Thus, AA can be expected to win 80% of the time, and, as you said, how you play them, given the players/fish/pros at your table, may have some influence on that 80%. Of course, being all-in preflop takes out the skill and you will be expected to beat any two random cards 80% of the time.

As for juicing the game - I use beer or whiskey!

Herk
 

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