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Missed value on the river??

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Missed value on the river?? - Sun Apr 22, 2012, 08:39 AM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I think I missed at least 5 to 8$ of value here. Right guys?

I don't have reads on the guy as he had just sat down.



After calling the almost pot bet on the turn I thought he had a straight... grrr

Kindly guide me on it thanks guys!

Etienne
 
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Sun Apr 22, 2012, 06:25 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Etipac.

Any straight that is made on the river was already there on the flop (53), so I think I'd be more "worried" about sets than straights given that the unknown opponent limp/called your BTN raise.

To me, that means your 2nd barrel on the turn (when you pick up top 2) indicates that you have a hand you feel is probably best, and a slow palyed set would probably check/raise at least in hopes of getting more value from what you are essentially saying is a strong made hand. The presence of additional draws on the turn also argues for a set to bet or raise at some point on the turn.

As I stated above, the 6 on the river is pretty blank, because it fills no draws that were not there already on the flop (except in the rare instances when a 66 faded 2 barrels, which is pretty "meh"), so what are you worried about when you hold top 2 here and the opp donk leads?

I will grant that the tiny donk lead on the river MIGHT be great strength hoping you strongly raise, and without info some opponents might bet exactly like this with a set (or a straight). But when the short stack SB folded out, your SPR going to the flop vs the other guy was just under 7, and that tends to favor you being willing to play for stacks with top 2 here. Caution in the face of an unknown opp is not a TERRIBLE thing, but I think in this spot I'd tend to be "cautious" with a hand like AK/AQ, not top 2 pair...

I would have probably preferred to raise all in on the river, and let the chips fall where they may with top 2.

Realistically we have to think the REASON he made that small-ish blocking bet type lead on a lesser 2 pair here is because at least sometimes he is willing to fold his 2 pair, so I do not think we can say you "lost" as much as $13.15 in value. Also, we have to think that sometimes he will have a set here, and a shove will cost us the max.

I entered the following info into Poker stove for his range. I included 5c3c in his range (to represent the somewhat small chance he has 53 with just 1 combo), the 3 likeliest sets (22/44/JJ), and the 2 pair combo's (Ac6c for 1 combo, A4/A2/J4). This range includes hands which might beat you, as well as those you beat. This is what I got:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24 games 0.015 secs 1,600 games/sec

Board: 2s 4c Ad Jc 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 16 0.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 8 0.00 { JJ, 44, 22, Ac6c, J4s, 5c3c, A4o, A2o, J4o }


---

With that much equity (or something on the order of this) versus a range of hands I am ahead of, and against hands which may be ahead of me, I do not think I'd be too "afraid" to play for stacks here with top 2. Realisticially though, considering that sometimes the opp MIGHT fold to your shove (had you made it), even in this big pot, I would say your real "loss" of value is on the order of the $5 to $8 you state.

Next time though, I think I'd just pull the trigger and make my stand on top 2, and CALL the tiny river bet if I have a hand like AK/AQ.

Hope it helps!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Apr 22, 2012 at 06:28 PM..
 

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