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though spot - thought process

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though spot - thought process - Mon Apr 23, 2012, 10:59 PM
(#1)
Polar Beard's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 8
I have been asked for my thought process for calling this shove :



First I was very surprised to see my hand dominated. I was expecting any pp, TJo+ any Js+, any ace, any king; not many 9 or 7 in theses combos

I had to call 31752 in 60752, which made it roughly 1:2 pot odds, for which I need approximately 33% equity to make it a pure gamble (neutral EV).

I had him on this shoving range: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K2o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o

Which gives my 97o 36.49% against his perceived range. Which is slightly better than neutral EV; but furthermore:

If I fold, I sit at 7 BB, almost equal with the short stack; with poor fold equity;
If I call and lose, I sit at 4 BB; which is not immensely different than 7 BB when compared to the 31 BB big stack.
If I call and win, I end up with more than 13 BB and place myself in a solid 2nd place in chip count; with tons of fold equity. Finishing 4th brings 22 BI vs 66 BI for winning.

I was not expecting to see a 9 or a 7 in villains hand; and would not have called knowing he had that specific hand; but vs his range, I still like my call and see it as the turning point of my 1st place.

I will be looking forward to counter arguments and, perhaps, important points that I might have overlooked. Sincerly,

Polar Beard

Last edited by Polar Beard; Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 11:17 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 23, 2012, 11:48 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
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***moved to better fitting forum JWK24***


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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 12:01 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

I asked John to move this, it was posted in my live training FAQ thread but it's really more appropriate here in hand analysis (and I don't want my FAQ thread turning into HA discussion )

This was a hand Polar Beard played during the Live Training I did for him tonight, we had a nice discussion about the spot during the class. I would love for everyone else to jump in!

The price we're getting here is just on the 2-1 cusp, and it would be mathematically correct to call vs. a wide shoving range. Ultimately I thought this spot was close, but a fold, because:

1) The villain was not shoving a wide range imo. Although he should be, this player hadn't demonstrated he was capable of doing this at all on this final table, so my gut told me his range was tighter than one might expect in this situation, maybe around 25-30%. Vs. this range we're slighly -EV hand wise.

2) Calling and losing 2/3rds puts our stack in cripple mode 2/3rds of the time while barely putting us in 2nd chip position 1/3rd of the time. My preference vs. a probable tightish range in a close spot is to pass it if losing the chips will really hurt our fold equity... which doing so here would. We'd only have 36K left after posting the SB next hand.

Polar: I'm not sure about your range assessment, something's backwards. For instance, suited J's you have down to J9s+, but offsuit J's you have down to J8o+. It should be the other way around I think.

If the villain is shoving super wide it leans it more towards a call, but the price is still fairly marginal. Even if he's shoving as wide as 75% (no way imo for this villain), our equity is still only 41% and almost 6 times out of 10 we'll be in cripple mode when it's done.

All in all a very interesting spot. I hope others will chime in.

Dave


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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 02:45 AM
(#4)
Polar Beard's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 8
Thanks for moving it in the appropriate section and double thanks for the comment.

Definitely a close call,

Also, as far as his shoving range goes, I wonder how much we should factor the fact that he has 4 BB and will be hit by the blinds on his very next turn . True that with our small sample (20 hands) he seems to be on the tight side.

You are correct for the suited J's. In all honesty, I believe he would shove any suited J (all the way down to J2), and J8o+ Looks like I forgot to add the lower suited in my stove.

Also, folding here my stack (7BB) is almost equal to the short stack (6BB). I might be wrong, but in my thought process, losing here had me at 4 BB while winning guarantied me 1 jump in the payout + 13 BB (way better "playability" vs the big stack). I just figured that the benefits of winning this gamble outweighed the inconveniences of losing it.

Alright, I hope we get to read more opinions

Last edited by Polar Beard; Tue Apr 24, 2012 at 02:57 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 12:02 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post

1) The villain was not shoving a wide range imo. Although he should be, this player hadn't demonstrated he was capable of doing this at all on this final table, so my gut told me his range was tighter than one might expect in this situation, maybe around 25-30%. Vs. this range we're slighly -EV hand wise.
Hi all!

I agree with this. Even with it being 4-handed, the players VPIP is still only 16%. With it being short-handed, even if I double it, I'm still only at a top 32% hand for this opp... which is extremely tight for 4-handed, especially in position.

John (JWK24)


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ICM calculation - Fri Apr 27, 2012, 01:28 AM
(#6)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Polar Beard View Post

I will be looking forward to counter arguments and, perhaps, important points that I might have overlooked. Sincerly,

Polar Beard
I couldn’t find an MTT with the payout you described, but it seemed to be a rather flat payout structure between 4th and 1st. I found a similar payout structure for a 360 man MTT (10-cent game).

I’m basing my ICM ratings on the 10-cent game payout structure, but I’m increasing the buy-in to $ 1.00.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Things you need to understand when playing tourneys with a rather flat payout structure:
*By doubling your chips, you are not doubling your $EV
*By losing half of your chips, you are losing less than half of your $EV

(* % will vary according to your stack size compared to the stack sizes left in the game)
$EV is the payout money your chips are worth
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I used the ICM calc from icmpoker.com to get the following information:

ICM

If you fold:......................ICM %.........$EV--------payout %----payout $
...................313804.......17.6.............6 3.36--------20.45---------73.62
.....................92884.......13.273.........47 .79--------15-------------54.00
you...............72560.......12.463.........44.87--------11.3---------- 40.68
him...............60752.......11.914.........42.89----------8.5-----------30.60

If you win:
...................313804.......17.769.........63. 97
you.............133312.......15.016.........54.06
.....................92884.......13.965.........50 .27
him.......................0........(payout $ 30.60)

If you lose:
...................313804.......17.623.........63. 44
.....................92884.......13.358.........48 .04
him...............92504.......13.344.........48.04
you...............40808.......10.925.........39.33

win:..$ 54.06..........fold:..$ 44.87..........lose:..$ 39.33
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusion:
You may increase your $EV by $ 9.19 by calling, but you are only risking $ 5.54.
For you to call you will need to have 37% hand equity against his range to make this a neutral EV play. You should call!

Jon ‘Apestyles Van Fleet has an interesting take on ICM on page 276 of ‘Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand At A Time Vol 2’.
.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Villain's Range - Fri Apr 27, 2012, 02:27 AM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
I didn't include the Range in my last post. I feel the villain’s range has to open up, being that he is the shortest stack (4BB), and the blinds plus antes are going through him the next two hands. The only reason he wouldn't shove wide is if there are loose aggressive players that are willing to gamble at the table. I don't have any info on the other players, so I can't factor that in.

I feel that he is shoving any pair; Ax; Kx; Qx; J8+; J7s+; T8+; T7s+; 98+; 97s+; 87s+.

Just put range in poker stove - hmm, thought 97 played better against that range.

Turns out this is a toss-up; 97o has 37% against my perceived villain's range.

I guess if you feel he's willing to blind out, rather than play a sub-par hand, then it's a fold.
.


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