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2nl 6max 2pair river choices

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2nl 6max 2pair river choices - Tue Apr 24, 2012, 09:29 AM
(#1)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
villain is 41/23 over a small sample size and there has been no real spazy play so far

my question is should we be raising this river here as played?

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

here is my thinking. on the river i feel this vilain is betting all his top pair 2 pair set and straghts and maybe his K given the week attempt we made on at the turn, so its an easy call at least but if we raise it up i think he folds out alot of his hands. a min raise might see him call with a minimum strong A but really i think our equity drops alot. i did some "stoving" and this is what i came up with

second pair + on the river and we have ~85% equity
top pair + ~65%
AT+ pairs + ~55%
2 pair + ~40%

so if we min raise it up we looking at ~ 65%
if we go more for 1/2 pot - 2/3 pot ~55%
if we rasie and get re raised or evan re shoved ~ 40% and then we should be folding?

does my thinking and math work out?
and what should me action be?
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 03:23 PM
(#2)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
bump
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 05:21 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi pokerpants,

I don't think we can raise this river as played. Can't really see him leading with 1 pair hands, I mean check-call then bet the river into you for a reasonable sized bet, doesn't make sense really. He's saying the 8 helped him, if it did our best chance is K8, not much else makes sense but A8 or the straight.

Bottom line is I don't think a river raise by us gets called by more worse hands than better, so I would just call and show the hand down.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 06:22 PM
(#4)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
thanks dave after looking back its what i came to thanks for the advice
 

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