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Can I fold here?

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Can I fold here? - Tue Apr 24, 2012, 12:22 PM
(#1)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
This is a LIMIT STT, I'm shoving 100% of the time in NL.



Both players were 50%+ VPiP and 30%+ PFR but I don't think that matters a lot in this hand as they both had changed their game on bubble play. While Matt was a loose aggressive maniac he only 3bet with when really strong. Scootnick isn't 4 betting here as it's a bubble play so I can assume he is also strong. I'm insta calling all in against any one of them but is folding and leaving myself with 40 chips an option?

I knew I was behind against one if not both. It meant the difference between a bubble and 2nd place cash but I felt if I won the hand it would set me up for heads up play that I will probably win and my reason for calling.
 
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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 12:41 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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***moved to limit section JWK24***


Super-Moderator



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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 12:53 PM
(#3)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
***moved to limit section JWK24***
It is a limit STT so it can go into either Limit or STT - as this was a bubble play I felt the STT section would be the best place for it. It's a no brainer call if this was Limit cash.
 
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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 01:00 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi Ovlaman!

The tourney section's only for NLHE tourneys.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 01:33 PM
(#5)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Can I fold here?

NO

Limit or No Limit three handed with 2BB+change and UTG so first to act, suited aces go in with a raise.

Then you have nothing left, (45=0) so the call to the reraise is instantaneous.

Just ran into a better hand (well 2..). The bubble would not affect my decision here.

Ed

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Tue Apr 24, 2012 at 01:36 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 24, 2012, 06:13 PM
(#6)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
What Ed said!
 
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Consider $EV on the bubble - Tue Apr 24, 2012, 07:14 PM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
This is a LIMIT STT, I'm shoving 100% of the time in NL.

I'm insta calling all in against any one of them but is folding and leaving myself with 40 chips an option?
This is a unique situation. You have to consider the payout structure, 1st place 65%; 2nd place 35%; 3rd place 0%, and the chip stacks! With Matt AI, should you fold with 45 chips left, or call? You need to figure out your $EV; ICM calculators do just this type of math. Below are my thoughts for this problem:

Assuming Matt is a solid player:
a) He would know Scoot is forced to call, and get it AI against your raise; otherwise your lead on Scoot would be hard for Scoot to overcome. Thus by folding, Matt should make it ITM.
b) He would only get involved with a very good hand* to try to accumulate the chips in this pot, and make 1st place a virtual lock.
* Possibly top 10% - 88+; AT+; KQ

Conclusion – Seems like Matt has you beat PF.

Assuming Scoot is a solid player:
a) By folding he has a better chance to get ITM, rather than risking getting involved with a non-premium hand**.
** Possibly top 3% - QQ+; AK
b) He should realize that Matt has a good hand, and Scoot should be happy to get ITM if Matt wins. If Ovalman has a premium opener, then Scoot has little equity in the pot anyway.

Conclusion – Seems like Scoot has you beat PF.
Actually Scoot has more $EV folding 99, and thus forcing Ovalman to call AI! If he calls, he may be dominated, or face over cards (possibly vs. both opponents).

After seeing that Scoot is AI, your $EV is greater if you fold! You probably don’t have anymore than 25% equity in this pot vs. both players. If you fold you will have a greater chance of getting ITM than the chance you have for winning the hand. By calling you're risking a shot at 35% of the 'payout', and not gaining an added 35% (70%) of the payout; The risk / reward is not worth it.

NOTE: If you had more money than Scoot, than I would certainly call. In that case if Scoot loses you're ITM, and if he wins (and you didn’t call), you have virtually no chance of getting ITM anyway.
.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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45 = 35% of the payout - Tue Apr 24, 2012, 07:17 PM
(#8)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
Can I fold here?

NO

Limit or No Limit three handed with 2BB+change and UTG so first to act, suited aces go in with a raise.

Then you have nothing left, (45=0) so the call to the reraise is instantaneous.

Just ran into a better hand (well 2..). The bubble would not affect my decision here.

Ed
45 = 35% of the payout (possibly) - $EV is better if you fold (see previous post).
.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 04:43 AM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Even though this is a limit game I still feel this should be in the STT section as the hand can still be considered a NL hand played out the way it was. I'm not questioning the odds of the hand, I'm asking is this a foldable situation on a bubble play. If it were a cash game then I know it's an insta call but there is nothing for third in this case which was what was at stake.

My initial thought was the same as yours Ed, I timebanked the hand and was squirming when I called, not because I knew I was behind but if I made the correct decision.

My thought process was as follows.

a) If I fold, I will have a 50/50 chance of making 2nd and +$6.57 (this was a $3.50 STT)

b) If I call and lose, I will come 3rd anyway.

c) If I call and win, I will have have a playable stack and a chance of winning the tourney and +$12.21.

It was the third option that made me call because I felt I could win the tourney. I know this hand isn't as straight forward as it seems and why I put it on the forum.

You put the problem out very well Spades but what if I'm faced with this decision 100 or 1,000 times? I've 4,500 STT's under my belt on Stars and I'm sure this situation will crop up again.

I've heard of ICM calculators but haven't a clue where to start.

Last edited by Ovalman; Wed Apr 25, 2012 at 05:13 AM.. Reason: grammar
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 05:10 AM
(#10)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
If you fold you have almost no chance of 1st place and a 50% or less chance of 2nd place.
Once you raise pre flop you can never fold in my opinion.
BE HAPPY WITH 3rd and go to WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 05:28 AM
(#11)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
If you fold you have almost no chance of 1st place and a 50% or less chance of 2nd place.
Once you raise pre flop you can never fold in my opinion.
BE HAPPY WITH 3rd and go to WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This all boils down to how to play a STT and the concept of ICM of which I'm aware of but unfamiliar of it's full meaning. I know there are calculators but I wouldn't know where to start.

Bubble play in a STT is one of my strengths and why I'm so concerned with this hand. This hand isn't as straightforward as it seems. You can count this similar to a MTT where there are 100 tickets and 101 players remaining and you sat with a 45 chips stack. Is it wiser to fold or just push your chips because you're so short? That's maybe another way to look at this hand.

I tend to agree with Spades post but why I also asked the question about playing this hand 100 or 1,000 times.

I really need to understand the ICM concept. I think I'm doing it OK in my STT play as it is but I need to fully understand when to push and when to fold.
 
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Wed Apr 25, 2012, 05:56 AM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Ovalman.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
My initial thought was the same as yours Ed, I timebanked the hand and was squirming when I called, not because I knew I was behind but if I made the correct decision.
Your decision really hinges on HOW TIGHT you think the first guy will 3bet, and how tightly the other short stack will move in on.

If you are facing 2 x 10% ranges for each, then you have around 29.2% equity and while a dog, you are so sunk you pretty much have to call and hope. Taking that amount of equity into a 3way pot in hopes of leveraging your suited and connected value is probably better than folding.

BUT...

If you think that 1 of the opp's is on a 5% range vs a 10% range, then you are a BIGGER dog at around 23.7%, and depending on which one you think might be tighter, you can probably fold and hope to eke your way itm.

So my opinion is that it really devolves to which opp you think might be tighter, the big stack or the other all in shortie...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
My thought process was as follows.

a) If I fold, I will have a 50/50 chance of making 2nd and +$6.57 (this was a $3.50 STT)
This is true if both ranges are similar here. If you feel both are similar, then folding is an option, but only if you lack equity to see benefit from playing a possibly dominated hand (being dominated means you need about 28%).

If you feel the ranges are as wide as 10% (and equal) here, then a call is probably better than risking the shortie chipping up and you being crippled.

If they are tighter than about 10%, then your better chance lay with folding and hoping the shortie busts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
b) If I call and lose, I will come 3rd anyway.
If you fold, and the short stack all in survives, you will almost certainly lose too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
c) If I call and win, I will have have a playable stack and a chance of winning the tourney and +$12.21.
This is why I think that it really depends upon HOW TIGHT you think your opp's are here.

Running thru poker stove seems to indicate playing vs a 10% range after you've raised is about the bottom end of what you'd be willing to stand on 3 way if you think the shortie is on the same range as the larger stack who 3bet.

Of course as you point out as well the shortie may be TIGHTER in his shove range (because you look as if you are going to be all in for the 3bet). I tend to agree with King's assessment of a 10%/3% range distribution here (I used 10%/5%).

If your opponents are on a differentiated range spread like this, the 10% range still has roughly 45% equity, and a fold is probably the better option for your money chances.

hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Great Point! - Thu Apr 26, 2012, 06:02 PM
(#13)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Your decision really hinges on HOW TIGHT you think the first guy will 3bet, and how tightly the other short stack will move in on.

-JDean
JDean is spot on, as always! You need to estimate your hand equity, and Scoot’s hand equity.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you call and win the hand you will have 2535 chips vs. 6465 chips. The ICM calc rates you at 43.45% of the pool. (icmpoker.com)

If you fold and Scoot loses the hand you will have 45 chips. The ICM calc rates you at 35.15% of the pool.

I’m going to make reasonable assumptions to calculate your $EV if you call, and if you don’t call. Below are some examples assuming different hand equities:

If you call:
a) If you call with 25% hand equity (ATs vs. 99 and AQ):
43.45 x .25 = 11% (is your % of pool money over the long haul)

b) If you call with 30% hand equity: (ATs vs. 99 and TT)
43.45 x .3 = 13% (is your % of pool money over the long haul)

c) If you call with 40.5% hand equity (ATs vs. 99 and 88):
43.45 x .405 = 17.6% (is your % of pool money over the long haul)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you fold:
a) If Scoot was a 69% favorite, and he lost:
35.15 x .31 = 11% (is your % of pool over the long haul) (Neutral EV point if you had 25% hand equity and folded)

b) If Scoot was a 63% favorite, and he lost:
35.15 x .37 = 13% (is your % of pool over the long haul) (Neutral EV point if you had 30% hand equity and folded)

c) If the equity is split 50/50, and Scoot lost:
35.15 x .5 = 17.6% (is your % of the pool over the long haul) (Neutral EV point if you had 40.5% hand equity and folded)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusion:
The better your hand equity, the worse Scoot’s hand equity has to be HU, for you to fold.
The worse your hand equity, the better Scoot’s hand equity has to be HU, for you to fold.

P.S. - JDean, I have a hand in the MTT forum (AKs vs. AI Donk)... would you mind taking a look and leaving me some feedback?


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Sat Jun 30, 2012, 12:26 PM
(#14)
TEXASDUKE's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 16
BronzeStar
I know this a old post . Just wondering when does the reads make your decisions ? Is the math all you think in this situation and not if you are behind and possibly sharing a card here ? if you know your beat and possibly sharing a card , isnt harder to win the hand ? I can see 2 open cards and going for it . but what would you get called with in this spot . Do we have all the information on this player to evaluate this hand or any hand at all ?

When we evaluate hand histories are we giving advice to what is obvious and easy to see and understand ? how do we know we have the right information to give the judgement the player is seeking ? Just a thought . for one even if i was sharing a card there ansd new it I would find a better spot and find a way to get back into the game . more advanced understanding here would help .
 
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Sat Jun 30, 2012, 12:30 PM
(#15)
TEXASDUKE's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 16
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Oh yea one quick thing here , why is it players need a system , or formula to play and make judgements of thier play and others play and put in the statement , YOU HAVE TO , YOU CANT , YOU GOTTA and so . isnt their better options that just may get a player back into the game and get rolling again ? What ever happen to getting reads and going with your reads has the new age players gone away from it and want to rely on a systen or formula that they dont have to think about things because society has changed so much we have gone away from the best way to play poker to an easier way and throw in all kinds if things that help but dont win hands for you ?

Last edited by TEXASDUKE; Sat Jun 30, 2012 at 12:34 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 30, 2012, 04:41 PM
(#16)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Duke are you still not using a HUD? Lolling. Stubborn!

I can tell you one reason we use formula's and systems is because they work and help me get the best read I can on an opponent. We multi table nowadays too so getting reads on players through observation is difficult. If you still one table then you should be paying attention but I assure you I can 4 - 8 table and by use of my HUD have a better read on things like how many times he raises first in or from the BU, CO or EP/MP. I can tell you how many times he folds to a 3 bet or how many times he 4 bets. My math will be right on because it is there in front of me I just need to click a button.
This is no different IMO than adjusting to a player at the table so stop fighting it and crack open that wallet, let the moths fly and buy it!

I guarantee once you try it you will say..... dayyum this shyte is better than jello!

Gidee Up!
 
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Non Tracker User - Mon Jul 02, 2012, 08:06 AM
(#17)
TEXASDUKE's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 16
BronzeStar
YES I am not using a HUD I need to have my reads to know how i am going to play

Thats the problem with players now a days they run and jump the gun and get all these gadgets and learn how to use them but have no understanding on how to read a table or play a player . they just look at the cards and the math to improve and have no idea if the player in front him has changed their play . oh yea it takes like 10 hands to see any changes but by then i have read it LOL

I just cant get past playing 1 game at once and all the forums I have see n and been in I always here the same things players are always complaining about LOL hopefully ill see ya some time at the tables if the government will get their head out of their you know what LOL. Good skill and have fun
 
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Mon Jul 02, 2012, 08:57 AM
(#18)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
The bottom line is to be profitable and if you are playing 1 table or 20 tables then I say...........

Gidee Up!

 
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Mon Jul 02, 2012, 07:49 PM
(#19)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
i wonder how alll the realy good poker players managed before the internet and HUDs ; perhaps they learnt the game and realised there is more to poker than squeezing small percentages .

Having said that if you ar multitabling you probably need these gizmos because you wont have the time or focus to properly assess your opponents . I used to play 10 tables , realised it was too much , scaled down to 4 , which are a mixture of cash games where i already know most of tthe opponents , or tourneys or SnGs where i already know most of the players ; but more often i just stick to 2 tables at most .

But in my opinion if you are making calls because your HUD says you have 40% equity against an opponents range and the pot equity is 40.1%+ you are still taking the worst of it and can only lead to losing in the long run .: you seldom see live players ( good ones that is ) make calls that you see on the internet .

Although there are alot of good internet players out there , the really good ones probably totally understood the game before the internet came along ; amd it is why most internet phenoms are mostly tourney players and would be dead money in a cash game , especially a live cash game ( although there are a few exceptions )

Lets be honest 99% of the players on the internet ( myself included ) are losing players and pretty rubbish at poker


I once read a quote from Phil Ivey ( i cant remeber where ) in which he stated that he had never read any book on poker ( this may or may not to be true , but it doesnt really matter ) and that the only way to learn poker is to play the game and the players .


All the truly great players understand that poker is not a card game played by people but a people game played with cards . A HUD can never teach you that .
 
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Thu Jul 05, 2012, 11:55 AM
(#20)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Duke are you still not using a HUD? Lolling. Stubborn!

I can tell you one reason we use formula's and systems is because they work and help me get the best read I can on an opponent. We multi table nowadays too so getting reads on players through observation is difficult. If you still one table then you should be paying attention but I assure you I can 4 - 8 table and by use of my HUD have a better read on things like how many times he raises first in or from the BU, CO or EP/MP. I can tell you how many times he folds to a 3 bet or how many times he 4 bets. My math will be right on because it is there in front of me I just need to click a button.
This is no different IMO than adjusting to a player at the table so stop fighting it and crack open that wallet, let the moths fly and buy it!

I guarantee once you try it you will say..... dayyum this shyte is better than jello!

Gidee Up!

This is soooooo funny

Systems and formulas work on paper and that's it, your math, my math is right, but players and their cards is a different reality. Math is based on YOUR cards as you have no clue what the other player is holding. You might think you know as per your HUD, but YOU DON'T
Books, videos and all the gadgets available are there for learning the game, learning the basics. Once you've achieve that knowledge, than you have to learn the players and no books will help you on that. I've never seen any players use a HUD in live games yet, nor did I see any players pull out a calculator.

Your HUD might say how many times he folds on a 3 bet, but that one time he doesn't, will cost you. HUD tells you that is VPIP is low, so when he raises that means he's got something, sure he does, this time he's betting with 27o...lol

Someone who plays by what the HUD says, will never be a better player than the one that plays the player.

I agree with fraiser
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
All the truly great players understand that poker is not a card game played by people but a people game played with cards . A HUD can never teach you that .
Yes I use PT3 but only to review my hands and to keep statistics. I used it for 3 weeks last year and it made me lose money because I would believe everything the HUD would show.....WRONG. Now that I play without it, I'm a better player, a winning player. Sure I can be better, but for a recreational player, I'm very happy

Here's proof:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...204#post356204
 

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