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AKs facing huge donk AI on Flop from questionable player

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AKs facing huge donk AI on Flop from questionable player - Thu Apr 26, 2012, 02:00 PM
(#1)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
The Perfect Storm

This is a very deep-stacked super turbo (NLHE). There is a monthly leader board, which requires a minimum of 30 games played (I have 23 – nearing the end of the month). At the moment the leader (2.15) is .3 up on me (1.85), I need to make an extra 8 points (over my average) during the next 7 matches to pass her. The top 1/3 of the field gets points, which start around 1.7 up to 8.5 (small field – 50’s), to 10.5 (large field – 100’s). The points go up slowly and exponentially.

Situation:
On my right is a loose, semi-passive player, who uses blocker bets (occasionally) OOP with potential STR, and/or under pairs, and calls when his OOP bet gets raised. He makes a lot of huge over sized bets, and AI’s. I only saw one SD where he flopped a STR, called a pot sized c-bet IP, then shoved a < pot size Turn c-bet. I’ve seen him call off 3 streets (13BB stack) as the PFR IP to donk bets, with Ace high (last session). He’s gotten to SD a number of times (calling station) with 2nd pair and worse, most of the hands were total garbage (even his EP hands). He plays Ax (min raises PF), suited cards, gappers (up to 3 gaps), and he will call PFR’s with them.

Six hands ago he PFR with KQ over 3 limpers (vs. a 25BB stack and smaller – which he had covered), and got called by a slow played AK; I’m not sure if they had a history or not. I’m now faced with a huge AI donk from this sometimes seemingly weak maniac. We’re sitting 5th and 6th out of 34 players – 18 players make the points. With this structure the point bubble will burst in 20 minutes, and by that time the blinds will have gone up 8 times.

I don’t recall ever seeing this type of play on the Flop from him, it’s usually only PF, and River, but even then it’s only sporadic, and in certain opportunistic times. The frequency seems to be greater than normal, but I only have 71 hands of data. If I call and lose, I’ll have to make up more points during the next 6 games to catch the leaderboard leader. If I call and win, I’ll be the chip leader, in a good position to pick up some very needed extra points. If I make a tight fold, I’ll make the point bubble. But if another opportunity doesn’t come my way I probably won’t be making up the ground I need to catch the Leaderboard leader this match.

The 1st hand shows Rocco’s (Spain) Flopped STR vs. a PFR - the 2nd hand (you’ll need to advance the replayer – left-most button on the replayer) shows his aggressive AI PF vs. 3 limpers – the 3rd hand shows my situation (you'll need to ‘click’ the right-most button on replayer to update the hand):


Call or fold?
.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Thu Apr 26, 2012, 03:51 PM
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***moved to HA since member has a ? about a hand JWK24***


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Thu Apr 26, 2012, 06:01 PM
(#3)
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Hi king_spadez1!

This is a great example of where a league type of structure and a cash tourney will be different.
The opp here has shown shoving the nuts, along with any 2 broadway.... and if they'll shove any broadway, they'll probably shove aces, etc.

If this is a std cash tourney being played with good bankroll management, I'm calling here. Yes, the opp could have a 6, but could easily have Kx and if so, I'm at worst chopping the pot, if not doubling up. If the player was playing tight, I'd muck and look for a better spot, but as loose as the opp has shown to be, I'll take my chances... especially if it makes me the chip leader and gives me a great shot at not only a final table, but also a win.

The thing here is though... it's a league game with a point system and not only that, I'm behind at the end of the month. There are two ways to look at it and depending on the way that I look at it, I'll play it differently.

1) If I'm satisfied with the position I'm at now in the league, then I'll pass here and make sure that I get some points out of it, in order to try and preserve my league position. But, if I'm going to be playing it cautiously, I'm not 3-betting preflop as I'll try to trap someone with my AKs, as by flatting the opps won't expect me to have this hand here.

2) Although, since the opp has been known to barrel any broadway and with two pair, top kicker, while they could have a 6, if I could live with possibly dropping some to take a shot at winning not only this tourney, but the whole league..... I'm taking the shot and calling here IF the points that I lose do not drop me a large number on the league pay scale. Also, in this situation, where I'm going for it, I will definitely 3-bet preflop.

In the old PSO league, I was in this type of spot multiple times and went for it twice (once successfully to move up the pay ladder, once it cost me bigtime). The time that I passed on it, I ended up losing my league position for a pay level by less than .2 because I did NOT go for it.
If I'm in that type of situation again in any type of league (live or online), I'm going for the win, especially in a situation where the winner gets a large prize from it.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Wed May 02, 2012, 03:08 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Your 3rd hand:

Given Rocco's play patterns, you really have a couple of options:

A) Flat to play "fit or fold"

This is viable because it is quite likely given his patterns that you are NOT going to avoid some huge donk lead. You will airball the flop about 2/3rds of the time, and if/when you do, a flat is a far easier fold to the heavy action he is likely to bring than is folding a raise.

I do not think I'd prefer this line versus this opp myself though...

- He donk leads strong.

By flatting I would have left the SPR a lot higher, thus making it a lot harder to commit on a 1 pair hand. If this guy merely fired 2/3rds to pot size donk bets, I'd be fine in peeling streets versus his weak range with a tptk, but he is prone to far LARGER than pot size bets. A medium or high SPR makes palying ANY 1 pair hand tenuous in those situations.

- He tends to over value his hand strength pre flop.

Given that I'd have some other games to re-coup any lost score, I'd not feel too badly about playing for stacks against his weak range with AKs pre flop. The 2nd hand you showed indicates that if I were to RAISE, he may well ship over me if he has something like KQ or a small pp, and flatting means I'd not be giving him a chance to do that.

That leaves...

B) Raise over his limp.

You elect to raise, and do so for a pretty standard amount (3095 over a 1k limp). Versus an opponent this loose and this wild, I really think you can afford to make your raise a more directed amount to set up an SPR that better favors you standing on a 1 pair hand. I doubt there is much chance with his play style that he'd be willing to FOLD to a slightly larger raise than you made, so why not just make your raise one that gives you a BETTER SPR?

Raising to around 4500 would set you up with an SPR of right at 5.

Raising to around 5000 would set you up with an SPR around 4.5.

Raising to around 7500 would set you up with an SPR around 3.

Even a raise to 7500 that you must FOLD on the flop leaves you with over 54BB in your stack, and position on this loose goose; I think you can easily find a way to make hay from that stack hit if you have to fold the flop. Also, if he ships on me pre, I'd be ready to play for stacks versus his loose range with AKs.

This is opposed to the SPR around 6.75 set up by the raise amount you choose...

I will grant that with an opp who is this prone to rash post flop bet sizing, SPR really makes little difference: he is unlikely to follow standard bet patterns, so your committment decisions will come far EARLIER versus him no matter what.

I really need to ask you: What are his play patterns for his total airball misses?

The hands you showed seem to indicate that he has a propensity to over value his raising hands pre flop (the KQ), and that he will over BET his monster flops with position (the T7 hand), but what does he do with his misses?

This question really matters because versus a "typical" opp this board is quite dry, but THIS guy can easily have a 6 in his hand. As such, I think the smaller amount I raised pre is making me throw up in my mouth when I see that shove and I have a 1 pair hand. Had I raised to 7500 pre and he stuck around, I would find it a LOT easier to get my stack in on this flop.

As played, reasons to make this call are:

- I still have games to recoup if I lose, and if I win I almost certainly will add good pts to my average
- He may be prone to doing this with hands like KQ/KJ/77 based solely on the info you have given, so I could be best
- The SPR is close to what I want

Reasons to FOLD include:

- I still have plenty of chips to go up the ladder and/or find a better spot versus this monkey.
- By folding I am "encouraging" him to continue his rash play style.
- My table "Q" has not changed significantly (Q number = the ratio of my stack to the avg stack at the table and in the MTT), nor has my decision process versus any stack at the table.

So it really is a toss up in my opinion...

I can say that a LARGER pre flop raise would have certainly tipped the scales in a different direction, and there can be great benefit in simplfying your decisions.

(Sorry for taking such a long time to get to this King, but after reading your post in the LHE thread, I got distracted and forgot!)

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Here's how the hand played out - Wed May 02, 2012, 06:30 PM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Your 3rd hand:
I really need to ask you: What are his play patterns for his total airball misses?

The hands you showed seem to indicate that he has a propensity to over value his raising hands pre flop (the KQ), and that he will over BET his monster flops with position (the T7 hand), but what does he do with his misses?

This question really matters because versus a "typical" opp this board is quite dry, but THIS guy can easily have a 6 in his hand. As such, I think the smaller amount I raised pre is making me throw up in my mouth when I see that shove and I have a 1 pair hand. Had I raised to 7500 pre and he stuck around, I would find it a LOT easier to get my stack in on this flop.

-JDean
There’s the ‘rub’. He was only challenged once, and then he showed a STR. I don’t know how’s he’s handling misses. By his frequency of big bets, I feel some of those bets were on misses. He would have to be on a super rush streak to match his big bets to his big hands (possible but improbable). This is the type of player that plays fast and wild, making huge bets to obtain a big stack early. After obtaining a huge stack he can afford to risk an AI when he has another player doubled in chips. If he loses the AI, he goes back on the wild path to rebuild his stack again.

I didn’t feel he would ‘value own’ himself by donking AI. He’s already shown patience with a flopped STR, and waited until a later street to get it in. The way the villain played it (I thought that he thought) he would usually fold out all of hero’s hands except KK. It’s plausible that AA, and AK might find the fold button as well. I felt I should risk the tourney points (1.7 pts – if I play it safe) for a chance to take a nice chip lead, and possibly win this tourney (8.6 pts).

The hand played out as follows:


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 10:55 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
There’s the ‘rub’. He was only challenged once, and then he showed a STR. I don’t know how’s he’s handling misses. By his frequency of big bets, I feel some of those bets were on misses. He would have to be on a super rush streak to match his big bets to his big hands (possible but improbable). This is the type of player that plays fast and wild, making huge bets to obtain a big stack early. After obtaining a huge stack he can afford to risk an AI when he has another player doubled in chips. If he loses the AI, he goes back on the wild path to rebuild his stack again.

I didn’t feel he would ‘value own’ himself by donking AI. He’s already shown patience with a flopped STR, and waited until a later street to get it in. The way the villain played it (I thought that he thought) he would usually fold out all of hero’s hands except KK. It’s plausible that AA, and AK might find the fold button as well. I felt I should risk the tourney points (1.7 pts – if I play it safe) for a chance to take a nice chip lead, and possibly win this tourney (8.6 pts).

The hand played out as follows:
Not a surprising result really...

I am not certain this guy is good enough to get rid of T6o to even the bigger raise I suggested, and you are going to be at his mercy even more had you done that.

One thing I CAN say is...

The LACK of info you have on his tendency to do this with bluffs kinda/sorta argues that he does NOT do this on bluffs. Consider...

In terms of real life logic that is a fallacy (just because someone has not YET been murdered does not make it more likely they will be murdered in the future because odds say X number of people will be murdered; other factors weigh into the likelihood).

In poker terms, where you are stuck on minimal info and deciding for your event "life", you have to think odds would have favored him showing up with a total cheese hand at least once at showdown if he was doing this frequently regardless of hand strength. To have survived, he probably would have had to get lucky, but at least you'd know he was the sort to think in terms of rash over bet bluffs had you seen that.

You see King, I find that oftentimes huge bluffs like the one you attempted to snap off are an "either/or" thing in poker; either someone is willing to make them, or they aren't. If this villain IS willing to make them, then you'd have probably seen that evidence. Lacking that evidence though, it is more probably a FOLD of top/top here...

As for whether or not he will make a "value owning" bet like that, I have to say that I seriously doubt he is thinking in those terms. My guess is that he is a free roll shove monkey who has found those sorts of trips hands get paid off a TON of the time by very weak players (NOT saying you are one of those!), so he probably keeps making those rash bets.

It is just unfortunate for you that you have enough skill to range his tendencies and conceptualize the positive benefits of snapping off a weaker K, AND that you had enough of a hand that would be good if he as over valuing a weak K.

At the end of the day though, this guy hadn;t shown any big bluffs, so chances are a LOT better he held exactly the hand his huge bet represents: a raggedy 6.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Leaderboard factor - Thu May 03, 2012, 11:40 PM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
At the end of the day though, this guy hadn;t shown any big bluffs, so chances are a LOT better he held exactly the hand his huge bet represents: a raggedy 6.

-JDean
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
This is a very deep-stacked super turbo (NLHE). There is a monthly leader board, which requires a minimum of 30 games played (I have 23 – nearing the end of the month). At the moment the leader (2.15) is .3 up on me (1.85), I need to make an extra 8 points (over my average) during the next 7 matches to pass her. The top 1/3 of the field gets points, which start around 1.7 up to 8.5 (small field – 50’s), to 10.5 (large field – 100’s). The points go up slowly and exponentially.
Your point is very valid; I had no other evidence than frequency. But ultimately the fact that I needed to make up a lot of points, and it was nearing the end of the month was the deciding factor. I felt I had a better shot at taking the leaderboard lead if I went for a double up. I might not get another chance in the last few days of the month to convert a win.

Thanks for your input!

Thanks JW for your reply as well!
.


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