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2nl 6max AK combo draw vs SS

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2nl 6max AK combo draw vs SS - Wed May 02, 2012, 05:35 PM
(#1)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

our villain is 41/3 over 34 hands

fist off general thoughts would be nice on all the play

my thinking was that i had floped very strong and that i wanted to get this in on the turn. thoughts on that please?

after stoving i put my equity ~35% - 40%. if we take that lower estimate of 35% and we assume that our turn shove is always getting called can we look at the shove like a call and say we are risking 60 to win 2.34 so pot odds are ~25% therefore this is a plus EV shove?

if that is the case how much do you expect our equity to go up if the villain is willing to fold some of the time?

and 1 more how do you feel about shoving the flop

sorry i know these are alot of questions just would like to know if my thinking is right

thanx in advance
 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 07:33 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Pokerpants.

Pre Flop you do not give us info on the BTN raiser, but with a hand as strong as yours, 3betting is not usually a terrible idea.

When the Short stack calls it makes for a stickier spot if you miss, but still not un-tenable. You can decide how to proceed when you see the flop.

The flop comes and you hit quite a strong draw. I think I would have preferred making a full pot bet rather than the 30c you made it, as this leaves only 33c in the short stack with a pot grown to $1.71; I am going to put the rest in on the turn regardless. While the opp is passive enough to let you get there for free, doing that could result in him folding if/when you hit. If the moeny were deeper I'd much prefer this line, but this shallow I want to get him in and gambooooool with my 13 outs.

The sizing you choose makes it a bit stickier really, as on the turn you are risking 60c for a chance to win $1.77 (if he calls). This means you are about 2.95 to 1 and need around 25.3% equity to break even. Even if we discount your over card outs (which should be good at least some of the time), you have around 28%; if we discount 2c and 4c (as those might make the opp a boat), you have about 24% equity. So your turn shove is probably still ok, if a bit risky.

In my opinion though, if I am going to bet and exercise fold equity, I think I'd prefer doing that on the flop...

After he calls your biggish flop bet he really cannot fold, so while your play is probably marginally +eV, I'd really rather have it be a smaller amount I am moving in on the turn. That means a pot size bet on the flop is probably better overall.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 03:28 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I wouldn't consider that a very strong flop for you. First on the flop you have an unmade hand of A high. Second, flop hits villains range well. Then there is your outs - 4 outs to the nuts, and 9 to the nut flush, and you 6 outs for overs which may or may not be any good. That said, against the short stack I'd be betting even bigger on the flop and making him really commit himself or fold right away while your equity is at it's highest.
 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 06:32 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I wouldn't consider that a very strong flop for you. First on the flop you have an unmade hand of A high. Second, flop hits villains range well. Then there is your outs - 4 outs to the nuts, and 9 to the nut flush, and you 6 outs for overs which may or may not be any good. That said, against the short stack I'd be betting even bigger on the flop and making him really commit himself or fold right away while your equity is at it's highest.
It is quite a strong flop on this depth of money...

The pre flop 3bet by Pokerpants created a situation where the villain had only 90c left. This means Poker Pants could conceivably expect his maximum exposure in this hand is 90c more, for a chance to win $1.47 (if Pokerpants were to have jammed the flop and been called).

That means he would be getting about 1.63 to 1 to risk doubling the opp here, and would need only about 38% equity to break even on getting them in on the flop.

This is the stove info if we NEVER think the villain stays on less than a top 2 hand:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,880 games 0.063 secs 188,571 games/sec

Board: Qc Jc 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.481% 36.48% 00.00% 4334 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 63.519% 63.52% 00.00% 7546 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 44, QJs }


We have 36.5% equity (roughly) if the opp will NEVER call a jam on less than top 2...

While we "need" 38.5% versus that uber tight calling range, I think we can EASILY expect that the villain might call occasionally on a Q...

If we add in "bad" Qs for us (AQ/KQ that we have only 3 pair outs against), and just 1 combo of "good Q's" (those we have 2 live overs to), our equity is:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,580 games 0.000 secs 8,316,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Jc 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.879% 48.75% 00.13% 20270 54.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 51.121% 50.99% 00.13% 21202 54.00 { QQ-JJ, 44, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }


---

48.9% give or take...

Remember, we are looking at a situation that is NOT a "risk" at even money; our 3bet pre flop put a lot of dead money into the pot already, so we do not NEED 50%+ equity to be +eV any longer.

So...

This is quite a strong flop for us, but only if we work to get as much as we can in to the pot before our equity is roughly HALVED by a blank turn.

If we had flatted the BTN raise pre flop, the depth of moeny would not be as favorable for us to play our draw "fast" oop, so our line might be different entirely. When we DO 3bet pre flop though, the pot size that created makes this a very strong flop for us indeed.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu May 03, 2012 at 06:36 PM..
 
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Fri May 04, 2012, 10:57 AM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Sick post JD! Nice explaination of the equity.

Personally though, I don't think having a short effective stack makes this a 'stronger flop' for AKs. The shorter the stacks the better it would be to spike the A or K on the flop, rather than a (monster) draw.

Still, definitely be playing that flop fast as possible with short effective stacks. Your the preflop aggressor in a 3-bet pot and your not folding if villain bets(because of the favorable equity and pot odds as JDean explained). So bet strong and fast and maximize fold equity.
 

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