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NLH 50c 45 man turbo SnG - Badly played set?

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NLH 50c 45 man turbo SnG - Badly played set? - Wed May 02, 2012, 09:20 PM
(#1)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Hi guys. This is an interesting one to discuss I think. Would a good player have check folded on the river?

I'm in the BB with 66. UTG limps, it fold round to the button and he raises 2.5x, I call and the limper calls. Flop comes 56Q rainbow. Happy days. Conscious of wanting to get value but not too concerned about protecting my hand on such a safe board I elect to check to the raiser fully expecting him to C bet. Sadly he does not.

Turn is Td, putting 2 diamonds on the board.

Now first to act I make a bet of just over half pot. UTG folds and the button calls.

River is Ac.

I know one of the draws he must have been playing for has possibly just come in. He's got a stack of about 2/3 of the pot. I decide to lead out (with fingers crossed) knowing that I am going to call if I check to him and he bets. He shuvs over the top for a bit more and I call.

He has indeed made his straight and takes it down.

So, should I have check folded on the river? I think I probably should have. If he had a queen he would almost certainly have bet the flop. His call on the turn therefore must have been a draw. And if he was on a draw then the ace was certainly one of the cards he could have been looking for.

I'm thinking that if I am going to take the higher risk play of not betting the flop when I hit my set then I am going to have to be more prepared to fold on a later street. Being out of position didn't help and so, thinking as I type, that would have been another good reason for betting the flop.

What do you think guys?! Was it a reasonable play under the circumstances?

Cheers, K.

p.s. How do I insert the replayer video into a post rather than just the link?

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=2DFFCDE3DF

Last edited by CptKevUK; Wed May 02, 2012 at 11:29 PM..
 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 12:01 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
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Hi Kevin!

To get the hand in the post, you'll want to copy the link's address, then use the 'insert link' button on your forum post and paste the link address there. It's toward the middle of the second line of options at the top of your post (10 to the right of the bold button).

Preflop, the button raises after UTG limps, so I'm going to call along and hope to setmine.

The flop gives me a set of 6's and with a straight draw possible, I need to be in order to protect against it (34s or 78s gives an open-ended straight draw). I also should be able to get value from anyone with a Q, pocket pair or even AK. Since there are 2 opps in the hand, I'll bet 2/3's pot (1183).

The turn gives a high straight draw and also a flush draw. I need to make a large enough bet here to be able to price these out and with two opps in, to do so, I'll size it between 3/4 and pot.
By betting 1k here, if one opp calls, they have 26.5% invested into the pot (will even be lower if both call). A flush draw is 9 outs, and a combo draw is 15 outs... so their hand could potentially have 30% equity. This means by only betting 1k, the opp actually has a +EV play to draw, which is what I don't want to have happen.

The river is the ace of clubs. The only hands I'm behind are a higher set or KJ (and by betting the flop KJ should have folded). I'm absolutely value betting the river and calling the opps shove (not many more chips than my value bet).

When flopping a set, especially on a board that could have flush or straight draws, I'm leading out every time to get value for my set, but to also price out any of the opp's draws. If the opp wants to stay and chase their draw, I want them to be making a -EV play on every street to draw at it.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 06:09 AM
(#3)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
OK John, that all makes complete sense. Although I feel my bet sizing has improved a lot over the last couple of weeks, particularly in terms of not over betting so much pre, I'm clearly not varying the bet size enough relation to EV post flop.

Made me smile that what looks like a dry board to me looks like a draw heavy board to you!! I can see that those draws are there but I'm clearly just not giving them enough credit in terms of them being a risk to my set.

I'm looking forward to the time when I can say 'I'm betting the flop here every time in this spot' (I know that's not exactly what you said but you get the gist I hope), it must be so confidence inducing that level of conviction. With this input from you guys at PSO now at least I'm getting to see where I'm going wrong and am confident I will get there eventually. I mean, all being well, I've got at least another 35 years or so to work on it right!!


OK, off to check out the videos relating to EV. I'll ease up on worrying about ranging my opponents so much at the moment until I've got that side of my game in better shape I think. Then, when my bet sizing is good AND I can range my opponents better (he says not entirely believing that will ever be a major strength) then I can make adjustments to that bet sizing that are opponent specific. If I knew the guy on the button would chase down a ragy ace for example my play might not have been so bad?

Thanks for the feedback John When are you off to the races?

p.s. Are there any plans to either optimise this site for use on an Android device or better still, produce a PSO app? I like watching the videos on my phone but it's really not ideal as there is limited functionality and all rather fiddly etc.

Keep up the good work!

K.

Last edited by CptKevUK; Thu May 03, 2012 at 07:47 AM..
 
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Thu May 03, 2012, 10:25 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Kevin!

Stick with the ranging. That's more important to get a handle on first. Sizing bets to make the opps possible draws is going to be secondary, as in order to do that, a player first needs to be able to range the opp.

The races are on Friday/Saturday (actually just printed out the sheets on them to start handicapping).

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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