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Was this a bad play?

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Was this a bad play? - Sun May 06, 2012, 02:16 AM
(#1)
Rbowl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 2
Opponent stats:
Seat 5 - 32/9 with a 3bet of 16.7
Seat 7 - 59/6 (Both only over about 20 hands)

How would you have played this?



Thanks!
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 11:12 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Rbowl!

Welcome to the forum.
One question that I'd have is what type of tourney is this? Is it a cash tourney or a league game? The reason that I ask is that you'll get two totally different answers from me due to it.

In a cash toruney:
With JJ I'm going to make my std opening raise, which for me at this blind level is to 3BB or 450. I normally use 3BB as my std until the blinds get up to 100/200, then I lower it to 2.5BB, then lower it again to 2.2BB when I hit the 1k/2k blind level.
The player in seat 5 then makes a large 3-bet (would be wondering if this is a tell) that is called by seat 7 (not exactly surprising if the opp is playing 59% of hands). I then go into pokerstove to find the equity for my JJ and if I give the first opp a top 9% hand and even if the 2nd opp is playing only a top 6% hand (they should be much wider than this), I see that I'm the favorite in the hand with 36% equity.
As long as the large 3-bet was not a tell from the opp in seat 5 (would need a note on the player from past history to see if it was), then I'm shoving over them. I may be able to isolate 1 of the opps and if not, then I'm still making a +EV play, as I'll have more equity in my hand than I will into the pot. There's also the possibility that they may fold to a shove, which would basically double my stack.

If it's a league game:
I'm going to make my std open, then due to being in a multi-way pot where I don't know that I have the best hand... I'm mucking to their raise. I may be the equity favorite (36%) but that means that I'm losing and ko'ing myself from the tourney almost 2 out of 3 times. In a league game, it's never worth the risk to be all-in early in a tourney unless I'm 100% certain that I have the best hand.

When the hand is over, I'm definitely making a note on seat 5 that they will make unusually large 3-bets when they have a premium hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sun May 06, 2012, 03:25 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
You shouldn't be looking at his 3b%, it's meaningless here. Sample size is only 20 hands so the times he's had the opportunity to 3b is even a smaller sample, 16.7% likely represents only 1 time that he's 3b so far.

I think this spot is close, the extra large 3b indicates a strong hand imo. I suspect we are an underdog to the 3-bettor, 32-9 indicates to me with this looseness he's probably flatting small and medium pairs and AQ, and we are behind a range of TT+ and AK (his likely 3b range). We can't really flat and play the flop out of position for this price, and if we jam I think we are mostly getting it in bad, so I would probably begrudgingly fold on a 27 bb stack here. It's close enough that in a fast structure where we will be falling below 20bb's soon anyway due to fast blinds (like in a turbo) I'll gamble here and get it in. Also the fish on the button does add some value as he's clearly calling with a terrible wide range, but if we're not doing well vs. the 3-bettor then he receives most of that value anyway.

Good post, nice spot.


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Mon May 07, 2012, 02:56 AM
(#4)
Rbowl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 2
Thanks for your help guys!

This was a cash Tourney by the way.
I Think i would fold in this spot next time. The blind levels for this tourney went up every 15mins, if I had folded to the 3bet I think i would have still had enough chips to find a better spot.
I'm hopefully going to start posting alot of the hands i have trouble with from now on.

Thanks again.
 

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