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counting outs...

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counting outs... - Sun May 06, 2012, 12:29 PM
(#1)
spiderpigAA's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 5
I have AsQs
opponent has a set: 9d9h
board is 5d9sTs

I should have 8 outs for a flush draw, giving me 32% equity with the 4/2 rule.
Pokerstove shows 26.465%.
Where is my mistake? Did I count too many outs here?
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 12:58 PM
(#2)
outcast13's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 122
You have 9 outs on the flush draw not 8 outs.
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 01:28 PM
(#3)
spiderpigAA's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 5
I counted 8 because opponent has a set of 9 and can draw a full house.
Any 5 and T would give him a full house, nines full of fives or nines full of tens.

So, out of the 13 spades I need to discount my Ace and Queen, the Nine and Ten of spades on the board plus the Five. This means I have 8 outs left, with would make 32% equity by the river (with the 4/2 rule.

But I've just been told that against the set the 4/2 rule can't be applied that way (flush draw versus a set)

Last edited by spiderpigAA; Sun May 06, 2012 at 01:42 PM..
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 01:43 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Hi spiderpigAA!

there are normally 9 outs, but since one out is counterfeited due to giving them a full house, you have 8. For the river, there will be another counterfeited out, if neither of you improve on the turn.

The lower % is due to the counterfeited outs and also them getting a full house or better, along with taking both streets into account, and you will have a lower % than normal on the river. The other thing to remember... even if you hit your flush, they can still get a full house.

John (JWK24)


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Sun May 06, 2012, 01:45 PM
(#5)
Henry Minute's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 48
Do you not have to discount the 5s since that would, as you say, make his boat. That would give you 7 outs but I think you need to lose another to hit the 24.6%.

Sorry, ignore this, I see you mentioned the 5.
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 02:34 PM
(#6)
outcast13's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 122
opps ur right i didn't see that one my bad.
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 03:11 PM
(#7)
spiderpigAA's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 5
ok I understand, thanks a lot.
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 03:49 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi.

The rule of 4 and 2 does not really account for re-draws an opponent might hit. as John said, you have 8 outs on the turn with 47 unknown cards, and if neither you nor your opp hit the turn, you will then have 7 live outs with 46 unknown cards.

This gives you 2 cards to hit 15 total outs.

15 / 46.5 (which is the AVERAGE of 47 unk. cards to the turn, and 46 to the river) = 32.5%

BUT...

Of the time you hit on the TURN (~17%), occasionally your opponent will suck out a boat on the river to win.

His chances to do so are: 10 / 46 = 21.7%

So...

21.7% of 32.5% = 7.05%

32.5% - 7.05% = 25.45%

And THAT is your real equity with a flush draw versus a set...

(note: the small variation between the 25.45 I show, and ~26% stove shows, is due to the very small chance you have to suck out with running straight cards. Not all flush draw flops will present you with that possibility.)


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Last edited by JDean; Sun May 06, 2012 at 03:58 PM..
 
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Mon May 07, 2012, 02:05 PM
(#9)
spiderpigAA's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 5
...

Last edited by spiderpigAA; Mon May 07, 2012 at 02:09 PM..
 
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Mon May 07, 2012, 02:05 PM
(#10)
spiderpigAA's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 5
wow, that makes it cristall clear, thank you!
 
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Thu Jun 07, 2012, 10:17 PM
(#11)
PKRkingJ's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 3
hey
could somebody explain the correct way to calculate outs into odds on the turn and river as i have read a lot of articles on this but cant quite get my head around it..

a detailed explanation would be great!!
thanks.........
 
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Thu Jun 07, 2012, 10:34 PM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PKRkingJ View Post
hey
could somebody explain the correct way to calculate outs into odds on the turn and river as i have read a lot of articles on this but cant quite get my head around it..

a detailed explanation would be great!!
thanks.........
Hi PKRkingJ!

The best thing I can recommend is for you to watch two videos on the subject that Dave 'TheLangolier' has made on the subject. Please take a peek at numbers 25 and 26 from his video section.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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