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flush odds

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flush odds - Sun May 06, 2012, 04:25 PM
(#1)
holsten19's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 1
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easy one i think whats the odds in hitting the flush with 2 in your hand & 2 on the flop by the river
 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 04:29 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
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Hi holsten19!

Welcome to the forum.

The odds of hitting the flush are that you have 9 outs and 2 streets to hit an out. Each street is worth 2% per out, so you have 9*4%=36% chance to hit the flush.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun May 06, 2012, 04:38 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi holsten!

Welcome to the forum!

First off, the PSO support section where you had originally posted this question is usually used for questions and comments directly related to the PSO forums and PSO skill leagues. As such, I moved your post to an area where it is more likely to see poker discussion...

Next, be sure to check out the great training materials here on PSO. There are live training sessions, a video archive, and we have a hand analysis forum for you to post hands you've played for review and thoughts of the community. There is a lot here at PSO that can help your game!

The straight up odds of hitting a flush by the river when you flop a 4 flush is pretty simple...

You have 9 outs to hit.
You have 2 chances of hitting those 9 outs.
You have 47 unknown cards on the flop, and 46 unknown cards on the turn.

2 x 9 = 18 "chances" to improve to a flush.

18 / 46.5 = 38.7%

(Note: the 46.5 is an average of the number of unknown cards going to the turn and going to the river).

A simple rule of thumb you can use when you flop draws is called the "Rule of 4 and 2"...

(See link here: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy.../pot-odds/4-2/ )

This is a very simple rule for giving you approximate draw odds. All you do is count your outs, and multiply by 2 or 4 (by 2 if you wish to know what your chances to hit on the next street, or by 4 if you want to know the chances of hitting across 2 streets).

Using this rule for your question, we'd have 9 outs. We want to know the chance to hit by the river (2 streets) so we multiply by 4.

9 x 4 = 36%.

Close enough to the actual % to be usable!

A few more cogent facts:

- you have roughly a 10.9% chance to flop a flush DRAW when you start with suited cards.
- you have roughly a 6.4% chance to hold a flush by the river when you start with suited cards.
- you have roughly a 41.6% chance to flop a "back door" flush draw (1 of your suit on the flop).
- you have roughly a 2.2% chance to flop a flush draw when you start with un-suited cards.

Here is a nice link that you might find interesting: http://tworags.com/index.php?ACTION=...odo=view&ID=78

Again, welcome to the forum!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun May 06, 2012 at 04:44 PM..
 
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Sat May 26, 2012, 04:21 AM
(#4)
ravenqueen76's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 75
hi holsten

i would recommend that you download pokerstove. its a free tool and it really helps you with these questions.

the langolier had a video about it so check that one out as well

gl at the tables
 
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Ratio vs Percentage method - Sat May 26, 2012, 03:08 PM
(#5)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

I have found this subject quite difficult getting mixed up between ratios and percentages. So here goes Flush draw.

Ratio method:

Card Odds Ratios table.
9 outs is 4:1 flop to turn

Pot odds if your opponent bets $20 into a $80 pot on the flop. So you call $20 to win $100
100/20 is 5:1

This is a call as Pot Odds > Card Odds

Percentage method:

9 outs is 9x2 = 18% flop to turn

Again calling $20 into a total $100 pot on the flop. Adding back your future call makes $120
20/120 is 1/6 = 16.67%

This a call as Card % (to win) > Pot % (to call)

Have I finally got it?

In the first link JDean posted and looking at "Hand example 2" is there a typo "Final Pot" should say $40? So adding back $10 call = $50. Result is correct 10/50 = 20%.


Last edited by ForrestFive; Sat May 26, 2012 at 03:11 PM..
 
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Sat May 26, 2012, 06:48 PM
(#6)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post

- you have roughly a 41.6% chance to flop a "back door" flush draw (1 of your suit on the flop).

-JDean
Am I reading that right? Whilst I'm inclined to take you word on it JD, 41% seems a somewhat high amount for a 4 outer, bearing in mind if you have a 38% chance of hitting a 1 outer flush with 4suited cards on the flop. Or am I misreading it?
 
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Sat May 26, 2012, 06:59 PM
(#7)
94Tofer's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 217
You are reading it incorrectly, it means that say you have AsKs, the flop will come with 1 spade, giving you a backdoor flush draw
 
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Sun May 27, 2012, 06:16 AM
(#8)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
Thanks tofer
 

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