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5NL 6-Max - Shoot me in the head

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5NL 6-Max - Shoot me in the head - Wed May 09, 2012, 01:29 AM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
My sickest week SCOOP blah blah,

So a little Zoom 5NL no reads - I just know it's not a set AAA or JJJ - so just like in the past two days I get busted in situations like this.

It is like a tournament decision for <25bb stacks - so what is the difference deeper in cash?

It's a draw so you can't stack off on this hand, so please tell me the maths - then shoot me in the head if I don't understand the +EV of a straight / flush / royal draw. Everything is 2:1.





I am on tilt about now

Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed May 09, 2012 at 01:38 AM.. Reason: 2:1
 
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Wed May 09, 2012, 08:08 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,026
(Community Coordinator)
*** Moved ***

Moved to a better-fitting Forum to ensure it gets answered.

Raiser


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Wed May 09, 2012, 12:43 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Forrest Five!

The hand starts with roughly a 174BB effective stack (had the BB stuck around, it would have been slightly lower). The button raise and your flat created a stack to pot ratio going to the flop of around 24. This is quite a deep money situation really, and situations this deep in cash games do tend to favor committing on either sets OR strong draws on the flop.

I disagree with your assertion though that this is similar to a tournament situation. In cash games there is not the onus on chip preservation that there is in MTT play, so calculation of equity versus the entire RANGE of potential hands an opponent might have could lead to some (seemingly) weak calls.

If the villain had KNOWN you held a set, then he could have calculated his equity correctly (at between 33 and 34%) and either flatted your donk lead on the flop (for potential implied odds value), or folded because he wasn't getting the right pot odds to peel. But in reality, he cannot know that you have exactly a set. Let's look at it from HIS perspective...

In Zoom poker you are working on quite minimal info, so it isn't totally unreasonable for him to suspect that you might be on a hand like AK/AQ/AJ/A4 as well as 44/JJ (I doubt on this depth of money it would make much sense for you not to 3bet AA, so I'd discount that were I him). As he has the K and Q of h, he really cannot credit you for lesser flush draws, and any straight draw you might have flopped would be a gut shot; remember, we are not including ANY bluffs (or weak donk leads) in your range. Here is his equity versus your reasonable range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,580 games 0.000 secs 8,316,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Jh 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.783% 57.59% 00.19% 23946 80.00 { JJ, 44, AJs+, A4s, AJo+, A4o }
Hand 1: 42.217% 42.03% 00.19% 17474 80.00 { KhQh }


~42.2% versus a pretty strong range for you.

His semi bluff raise on a strong draw (to the nut flush and a gut shot to the nut straight) makes perfect sense really; he may well fold out some hands you might donk lead on (like Ax/Jx hands we did not include in your range), and if you flat there is enough left in the stacks still to possibly let him get to the river (depending on whether you lead the turn again after his raise) to realize his full equity plus implied odds value.

When you jam over his raise though, the opp is faced with a decision to call an additional $7.21 for a chance to win $10.24. He would be getting about 1.4 to 1 to call, and would need only about 41.67% equity to break even on calling off with his 2 way draw. If he thinks you will stack off on your full range I've shown (somewhat reasonable given the minimal info of Zoom), then he is getitng the right price to call.

If he thinks you might be willing to stack off ONLY on on 2 pair+ hands (deleting AK and AQ) his equity is:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23,760 games 0.000 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Jh 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.631% 60.63% 00.00% 14406 0.00 { JJ, 44, AJs, A4s, AJo, A4o }
Hand 1: 39.369% 39.37% 00.00% 9354 0.00 { KhQh }


39.4% really is not hugely far off what he "needs" to break even, so his lack of surety may lead to a slightly -eV call to gamboooool in a cash game, where in an MTT this you be a pretty clear spot to get out of dodge.

You did not make any mistakes really (although totally discounting AA/JJ from his range when you did not 3bet pre may not be great to do). The truth is Forest, at worst this guy made a "small" mistake in over palying his hand. Given the lack of info in Zoom, and some of the wild over palys you are apt to see in micro stakes in general, he could easily have had enough equity to call your shove.

...and if he does, he is going to get there the maximum amount of times possible!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu May 10, 2012, 11:05 AM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi guys,

Sorry for posting in the wrong place again. I was pretty much steaming when I posted and needed a day off the tables,

Thanks JDean for the great analysis. My entire thought process only lasted a couple of seconds.

I'm oop 44 in sb facing a standard button raise - flatting to set mine and not getting clever.

Leading out into the PFR what does the villain think of that?
1) I'm a donkey / amateur
2) Strong made hand (I'm not giving a free card to draw to)
3) Donk semi-bluff value bet (as I'm on a draw myself losing to Kh/Qh)

Not leading out I'd face a certain c-bet then how many streets am I going to call down as the villain improves. I can only improve by filling up if the board pairs or the case 4.

I should have bet a bit more leading out but I was giving easy 2:1 on the draw expecting to be called.

But then comes a huge re-raise over 5x my bet so now my tournament mentality kicks in
1) I've got the villain covered, he may fold to a shove, get the money in now
2) IF I started 21bb deep and open raised I'm not calling or folding to a 3-bet here

I agree a bit misguided in cash but when I have about 4.5 pot size bets behind, calling and seeing a turn I'd sure to be facing another bet and can't find the fold button.

Thanks for the pokerstove maths. I understand some:

Scenario1, plugging in 44 and a range of other cards for me, the board and op's cards - I win 57.59% of the time. His equity 42.217%.

Scenario 2, removing AK and AQ from my range - I win 60.63% of the time. His equity 39.369%.

Now his equity of 39.369% really is not hugely far off what he "needs" to break even
is the bit I'm confused about. Nearly 41.67? From scenario 1?

Going back to scenario 1 the $10.24 / $7.21 = 1.4 / 1 to call where does the number 41.67% come from?

Sorry I am unable to watch a complete training video to learn about implied odds and +/-EV a little faster.

Thanks
 
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Thu May 10, 2012, 11:54 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Forest.

I stated:

The opponent here needs 41.67% equity in order to break even on a call when he is given 1.4 to 1 pot odds [by your shove].

You can look at it like this:

By calling your shove at 1.4 to 1 odds, he is contributing 41.67% to the total pot.

If he wins, he gets 1.4 times the money he puts in, PLUS he is returned the full value of the amount he called.

If you add 1 to the pot odds (to represent the full value of the amount of his call returning to him), you get 2.4.

Divide 100 by 2.4 and you get 41.67%, and that is the equity he needs to have versus your range to "break even" on a call of your shove, see?

The amount he raised over your donk lead is NOT factored into the equity he needs to call your shove, because once he elected to make that raise, that money no longer was his; it belonged to the pot.

Now...

Each decision in poker is predicated upon the information with which you have to work. As Zoom has a pretty minimal amount of info, he really cannot "know" enough about your play tendencies to decide how likely you might be to shove over his raise of your donk lead. If there is a STRONG CHANCE you might shove over his raise of your donk lead, then he'd have to adjust his total cost to make that raise in accordance with IMPLIED ODDS.

Had he looked at the hand with an eye toward IMPLIED ODDS, he could reasonably assume that at least some of the time you MIGHT shove. Let's take that example to the extreme, and take a look...

Within your point 2 of the follow up, you state that the villain might think:

2) Strong made hand (I'm not giving a free card to draw to)

If we say he "knows" you will ALWAYS shove over his raise of your donk lead, then he can expect that his raise of that donk lead is ALSO an amount of his total investment. As such, the equity he'd need to make the raise of your donk lead changes.

In that case, the implied odds for him would be:

35c (the amount of the pot pre flop) + $8.55 (the remainder of your stack) = $8.90

He would be risking $8.55 more for the chance to win $8.90, and would have odds of 1.04 to 1.

100 / 2.04 = 49.0%, and this would be the equity to make it worthwhile to raise your donk lead in the first place, because every time he makes that raise you are going to shove.

This is why I stated early in my post that if he could ONLY put you on a set when you donk lead, and if he can know you might ALWAYS shove that set if he raises over your donk lead, he'd have been much better off either folding, or flatting your rather small donk lead for the implied odds your extremely aggressive play style gives.

See?

BUT...

Because at least SOME of the time you will not shove here (either because you do not hold a hand strong enough to do so, because sometimes you will flat to induce another call or bet by him, or for whatever reason), the amount of his raise is no longer a factor in his decision whether to call your shove or not. That money "belongs to the pot" when he put it in, and no longer belongs to him...see?

As such, he only needs the ~41% equity to break even on a call of your shove.

Continuing...

Late in the write up, I said that at most he made a "small mistake" in over valuing his hand strength. I said this mainly because if the opp were to assume you might donk lead on JUST the tight range I assigned that gives him around 42%, he should also reasonably expect that your SHOVE RANGE over his range is TIGHTER than the range giving him the right equity of 42%.

It is only a "small mistake" by him in my opinion, because removing AK/AQ (big kicker 1 pair hands), thus "tightening" to account for your shove range, still leaves him the 39.4% equity. The pot size says he needs ~41% to break even, so 39.4% is pretty close to that amount.

If he tightens you MORE though (something quite hard to do in Zoom with minimal info) to say you will only jam a set here, then his call of your jam would make little sense given that he only has 33%/34% equity. Of course tightening to ONLY give you sets to jam might be playing a pretty big draw in fear of monsters under the bed...

See?

I hope this clarifies things, instead of conffuses them more. If it doesn't, I can try again...

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri May 11, 2012, 11:12 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Nice discussion.

A couple other thoughts...

The donk lead on the flop is more commonly a medium strength hand like AQ or worse, a random stab, or a draw, not a monster... most people check-raise the flop with sets or check-call planning to drop the bomb on the turn. So from his perspective he probably feels like he has both good fold equity and good hand equity to semi-bluff raise.

Also I think the villain is not discounting worse flush draws, as it's not uncommon in these games to see people semi-bluff their flush draws hard... adding even just a few combos of worse heart draws into your range makes the villains semi-bluff and subsequent getting it in much stronger.


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Fri May 11, 2012, 11:35 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
It's a draw so you can't stack off on this hand, so please tell me the maths - then shoot me in the head if I don't understand the +EV of a straight / flush / royal draw. Everything is 2:1.
Hopefully you are understanding a bit better now why he would stack off with a big draw. Keep in mind also it's a draw to a royal flush, and some players will stack that regardless of reads, situation, stacks, etc. for the simple thrill of making a royal flush.

Regardless, against your actual hand his calling off is definitely -EV. He can' t know that because he is calling vs. a range of hands, but with your strong holding he's taking way the worst of it, and you want this call from him all the time.

He's calling $7.22 to win $10.24 that's in the pot after you shove. vs. your set he's in the worst of shape, and will only win the pot about 1/3rd of the time. So the EV of his call is:
EV = (.33*10.24) [the pot when he wins] - (.67*7.22) [his call off when he loses]
EV= 3.38-4.84 = -$1.46

So this call, vs your actual holding, costs him $1.46 in losses or -29 bb's per trial, a hugely -EV call long term.

If you could get it all in here 100K times, you would clean up. But in the process of cleaning up, statistically he would still drag the pot ~33K times. Unfortunately this was one of them.


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Sat May 12, 2012, 05:45 PM
(#8)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
yeah royal flush draw, I like those ^^

anyway you mentioned I know he doesnt have JJ or AA.

I think that is very unreasonable for you to say, it is definately in his range.
His range consists of (imo):
Sets AA, JJ,
flush + str draw KQs, KTs, QTs,
Top pair AK and AJ if we assume he is a good player, if not perhaps AQ AT.
weaker flushes?

I don´t think your 44 are doing so well against this range in allin situation, if you get called.

I think you played the hand too fast and got lucky to be called by worse but I don´t expect you to be called by AK too often here.

Last edited by Sjekkkk; Sat May 12, 2012 at 05:53 PM..
 
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Sun May 13, 2012, 02:53 PM
(#9)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks for all your input,

@JDean

I will have to take this away and digest the maths on this. In principle you are adding in the original stake to the pot odds providing the equity to break even.

I don't think I'd ever be able to do these calculations during a game but thanks for your time and patience for trying to explain it to me.

@TheLangolier

Thanks for this way of looking at things. You used the ratio 1 /' 3 and I understand were that number comes from. Then applying it to the cash on the table.

EV = wins - loses. So showing me what a -EV decision in $ means. I didn't know that before which will help me when people talk about EV in live training chat.

@Sjekkkk

Incorrect ranging is one of my leaks. I normally only work it out by the river.

@ALL

Do I detect some disapproval with donk leads? Considering my earlier point "3) Donk semi-bluff value bet (as I'm on a draw myself..".

OK I watch the pros do it on the Big Game. I can't use the terminology to explain it but basically there are chips in the op's stack and I want to leverage them to me.

In the following 5NL Zoom example the situation is now reversed.

I have the KQs (in the BB) and a UTG raiser is now ranged on a pocket pair and may have hit a set on the flop.

Again I donk lead this time without a made hand. In my head "is this that implied odds thing to make my draw?" I have some possible flush / straight / royal draws.

My royal outs are removed on the turn. I lead out again and the op is happily calling me down. I get to my straight on the river.

Now I less than half pot value bet on the river. NOooo I get 3x raised. Tank, tank... I call. Yes again I ranged my opponent incorrectly but no he didn't make a club flush.

Mathematically incorrect but enjoyable poker? Thanks again guys for your feedback.




Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun May 13, 2012 at 03:01 PM.. Reason: royal not flush outs
 

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