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2nl 6max QQ flopped set

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2nl 6max QQ flopped set - Wed May 09, 2012, 07:10 AM
(#1)
pokerspants's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 42
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

villain has just sat down

first general thoughts on sizing and play please
second and more importantly on the river what do you think.

my thoughts are that with no real reads villain could have a T or he could have 2 pair, or a set and that there are alot of hands we have beat that he could be shoving for value or a bluff. the other thought i have is should we just be calling simply because we have committed half our stack with near bottom set

thoughts please
 
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Wed May 09, 2012, 11:36 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Pokerpants.

Sick spot to find yourself in on the river!

By that time though, you are pretty deeply stuck here. You are facing a call of $1.09 to possibly win around $3.40 and you are getting about 3.1 to 1 on a call. This means you only have to be good about 24% of the time to justify calling after you;ve checked.

Since the villain was calling all the way down, there is a chance that he holds something like AQ/AK/AJ or Ax even, so I think making the crying call is probably going to see you win enough of the time to warrant making the call as played.

BUT...

I think if you were going to bet strongly on the turn for value, you might have wanted to make it more along the line of pot (87c instead of 72c) to make your river decision to commit easier. Had you done that, you'd have been left with under a $1 in your stack, and with the size of the pot you could have auto shoved the river. You may well have found that you ran into JT, or AT in the hands of a major calling station, but so be it.

If you were going to CHECK/CALL the river (like you did), I think you should have been considering a pot control line earlier by not betting the turn so strongly. The opp might have had you beat all along, and if your lack of info leads you to that suspicion then working to save some $ before you get too deep on this coordinated board right in most opp's playing zones has more reason that check/calling off your stack BECAUSE your turn bet stuck you so deep.

As played, you run the risk that the river card represents an "action killer" for you, and you may not see him turn lesser hands than your set into bluffs. By not just putting the rest of your stack in on a lead when you had the intent to call it off anyway, you might have lost value.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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