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2 NL 6 Max AK TPTK flop dilemma

2 NL 6 Max AK TPTK flop dilemma - Wed May 09, 2012, 10:26 AM
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain is a regular, tight player 14/12 with standard raise of 4bb. I was putting him on premium pairs or AK to call my 3bet.

Flop comes and I hit top pair, villain donks into me.

Question is should I have flat or raised him 3x?
Wed May 09, 2012, 01:09 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)

I actually don't like taking a 3B line preflop in this spot. The villain is a nit (14/12 is def nitty for 6-max opening UTG, if we 3B with AK here we are essentially going to be accomplishing some things we don't want:

-Nit will fold out worse hands like AJ and KQ, and only continue with a range that plays well against AK (and this is not often a ton of folds as his opening range UTG is tight to begin with)

-We bloat the pot, reducing the depth of money for post flop play (lower SPR) which negates our positional advantage to an extent

-We isolate on a player who does not make large mistakes and will likely play well by default vs. our 3B (folding worse hands and continuing with a range that has good equity)

If we flat call his open instead, it's likely we can extract more value playing post flop in position vs. this guy:

-We keep the worse parts of his range in, allowing us to get value from AJ and KQ type hands.

-We retain the power of our positional advantage by keeping the stacks deep (high SPR), and this is a good candidate player to be abused post flop with strong positional play.

-We invite weaker players and fish behind us to join the party (players who are more likely to make large post flop mistakes are more desirable to play pots with)... reads aren't given on anyone behind us which may be a mistake if we have them (we should consider who's behind us as well here).

The standard play is to 3B with AK but I don't 3B with it 100% of the time and this looks like a prime spot to deviate from the standard line to exploit the situation better.

On the flop, when he donks into us like this, I think this is actually a fold. I know that sounds strange when we hit top/top, but this is a pretty unique situation. Nit's just don't bluff like this, nor do they semi-bluff draws like this. Now if the read we have is not solid (small sample size?) then I'm continuing, but vs a tight/nitty guy, what's his range to donk into us solidly? It is:

AA, KK, TT, AK -- They will sometimes flat AA/KK pre looking for a flop that's not scary. While they may 4b these sometimes too, it's how nits think. The nit will not raise pre/call a 3b with KQ unless they are tilting, they may open it (maybe) but not as likely UTG and not calling a 3B with it. They are not donking into us with QQ/JJ. Even if we think they might take this line with a solid draw, the only real one he can have is AcQc... he's not likely to be calling a preflop 3b with AJs and certainly not raise/calling pre with QJs.

If you throw this range into an equity calculator you'll see that we're actually destroyed. Even if we add in AcQc and AcJc we're still a 72-28 dog... take the draws out and it's 76-24 (much of that equity comes from splitting with other AK's). This is a pretty terrible spot to be stacking off post flop if the villain never has bluffs and has none or almost no semi-bluffs in their range. And nits just won't.

Hope this helps,

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Thu May 10, 2012, 06:54 AM
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Ok thanks a lot! The part about him opening UTG was something I totally overlooked. Learnt a lot from your analysis. Thanks again

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