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Nut Flush Draw

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Nut Flush Draw - Wed May 09, 2012, 12:48 PM
(#1)
jamesthefish's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 30
Ok, we are early stages of a 10 player SnG. The stakes are very small - I am trying to work myself a bankroll from nothing! I am not a competant online player as I tend to stick to live games.

Starting stack = 10,000
Blinds = 200/400

We are down to 8 players and half the table seem to be absolute maniacs.

I am in the SB with AcQs. Player in mid position limps, then player in the HJ (Villain) raises to 1100 (stack of 15000).

I am not worried about the limper - he is very loose passive and is likely to fold. HJ villain has played a few hands, generally showing down half decent holdings, so I would range him at pairs or A8+.

First question, do you call or raise? My stack is 9700.



Ok, so I elected to flat, BB and limper folded, so heads up to the flop.

Flop: 9c, 7c, 3c.


Pretty nice flop for me I thought. Pot is 3000, so I checked to the raiser with the plan of shoving over a C-bet. Sure enough, Villain bets 2000 into 3000, leaving about 10,000 behind.

I believe that with my strong draw and the likelihood that at least one of my cards could be good, I wouldn't be upset if a shove was called and Raising all-in to 8500ish would give me some fold equity if he was barrelling light.


Is this the right play / thought process? I appreciate I have little information on the player, but in terms of long term results is this the right play?




For completeness, he called and showed AA and I hit only a Q, so busted out, but I had ~40% on the flop with the flush draw alone, so still felt this was a good play. Thoughts?

Ta,

James
 
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Wed May 09, 2012, 04:41 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi James!

Preflop, there's 2100 in the pot before it gets to me. Being out of position, I'd rather raise/fold here than to call. If I raised, it would be to 3200. If I flat, I'm playing the rest of the hand out of position against the better of the two players and if I'm out of position, I'd rather have the lead in the hand.

The flop gives me two overcards and a flush draw (9 outs for the flush and possibly 6 more if the A or Q would be good). If I had the lead, I'd make a smaller c-bet, so that I'm priced in for my draw. Without the lead, I'll check and see what happens.
The opp makes a 2k bet, so to call, I need to put 2k into a pot that will be 7k (28.6%).
If I think both the A and Q outs are good, then I'll call.... if not, I only have 9 outs (18% equity to the turn), so I don't want to call.
If I shove, I'm putting 8500 into a pot that will be 20k if the opp calls (42.5%). Since I get to see both streets, my flush outs are now worth 36% equity and each other card is worth 12% (3 outs *4% each). If it's just the flush that wins for me, then the pot equity is higher than the hand equity, so I don't want to shove either. If either an A or Q will win, then my hand equity is higher... so I would want to shove.

I would have raised preflop here (or mucked if the opp was playing tight). Without the lead, I would check/shove. With the lead, I'd make a smaller value/blocking bet. If I raised pre and the opp 4-bet me, I'm mucking.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu May 10, 2012, 05:32 AM
(#3)
jamesthefish's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 30
Thanks for the analysis and stats, but I have a couple more questions.

Being a live game player (mainly) I feel my abilities on the flop are much better than most opponents in small limit games. This factored into my flat pre-flop. If I had raised and the opponent shoved pre, I am faced with a decision and I would rather put him to a difficult decision on the flop.

Another problem I have is that with my re-raise shove on the flop against an opponent who doesn't know my play very well, he is likely to assume a big ace. He doesn't know that I would play the nut flush / trips / even a bluff in the same way. Nevertheless, if he was holding 88+ pre-flop and puts me on a big ace with a club, he could still find it difficult to call a shove.

Ok, so he had aces so is never likely to fold, but against his range I think I am doing well here. Maybe I am giving a small game player too much credit or assuming he has taken note of the fact this was only the second hand I had played (and the other was a BB check and fold on the flop).

I see the stats are marginally against me in the long run (as on some occasions the A and Q are good here), but the stats do not include the fold equity which I believe I have against lots top pair (A9) or pocket pairs (7-T) which my opponent could feasibly be holding.


I guess at relatively early stages, I could fold the flop having limped, but AcQs doesn't hit many better flops I would say, and the pre-flop fold is just too tight.

I do find AQ a hard hand to play, and in this case I would have lost less raising pre- and folding to a reshove, but it would be a tough fold having already committed nearly 1/3 of my chips.

Cheers,

James
 
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Thu May 10, 2012, 11:57 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi James!

My background is live game playing too, much more so than online (casino daily tourneys, wsop circuits, etc).

Preflop, if the opp would come over the top of my raise, then I'm basing my all-in/fold on my read of the player. If loose, I may call... tight, I'm mucking. I'd rather raise/fold here, especially if I thought I had an advantage over my opponents... as that way I'm still in the tourney and can outplay them later.

On the flop, a re-raise shove does not say big ace to me. I would expect that from a set or an overpair, not an ace. A big ace or high club is normally going to check/call as a float or make a small blocking bet, especially if one is a club.

Where I would look into the FE, is if it's a marginal play percentage-wise. If it's marginal, then the FE will add to my equity some and make it a +EV play. As to how much FE I have.... that will depend on my read of the opp, which is not given here. Without the read, I can't add that in, as I'd have no clue what % of the time they may fold.
Ex: on the flop, I may have 10% more in the pot than my hand equity... if the player is not extremely tight and likely to fold a great number of hands, I won't be able to make up the 10%, to make it a +EV play.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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