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NL25 QJs 3-bet pot river call?

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NL25 QJs 3-bet pot river call? - Wed May 09, 2012, 01:11 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $46.73 (186.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25 (100 bb)
SB: $67.89 (271.6 bb)
BB: $23.77 (95.1 bb)
MP: $34.88 (139.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q:diamond: J:diamond:
MP folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) A:club: A:spade: 9:spade: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.31, CO calls $2.31

Turn: ($9.47) 2:heart: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($9.47) J:club: (2 players)
CO bets $6.75, Hero folds

[spoil]Results: $9.47 pot ($0.43 rake)
Final Board: A:club: A:spade: 9:spade: 2:heart: J:club:
CO mucked and won $9.04 ($4.48 net)
Hero mucked Q:diamond: J:diamond: and lost (-$4.56 net)
[/spoil][/hand_history][/converted_hand]

Villain's stats: VPIP:38 PFR:23 Agg freq: 24% H:73

What is the good play on the river? Call because he maybe capable of betting the river here with some kind of missed draw or it's just unlikely given it is a 3-bet pot?
 
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Thu May 10, 2012, 01:12 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco!

Personally, I think the river fold is fine...

Sure, by that time you are getting about 2.4 to 1 to call, and that means you only need to be right in calling about 29.4% of the time, but I think you might find it hard to be good here that much of the time...

While the fact he raised pre may not put an A in his range a ton of the time, you have to think that when you 3bet and he flats, As make a lot more of his range.

It is not uncommon for someone oop to check back flopped trips to the raiser at all either. Your C Bet alone on this depth of money left him less than a pot size bet in his stack, so he can "afford" to check back the turn at least some of the time too, because if you bet it is an easy 'get em in" for him.

As such, I gotta strongly suspect that the money was not deep enough to favor thinking he might try a bluff on the river, so hitting that J is not likely to be good enough, often enough, to make it a pretty clear fold to find a better spot in my opinion.

hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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