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$1 45 blind vs blind, got myself into a tricky spot

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$1 45 blind vs blind, got myself into a tricky spot - Sat May 12, 2012, 04:14 PM
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darkmajik365's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 191


The opener has been very tight and is like a 15 and 5 over at least 50 hands, but that was mainly due to the start of the tournament he has picked up aggression like I have as we approach the final table and antes kick in with his small blind steal percentage at 70%. Given that he is fairly tight and i am on an awkward stack of over 20bb i don't like 3bet shoving its just to many chips. I think i should flat here looking at it now, especially because i don't like 3bet folding and if he 4bets me its not a great spot either?
 
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Sat May 12, 2012, 10:37 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi darkmajik!

One question I'd have... was the opp, at this time in the tourney, playing more toward the 15/5 or the 70% steal number. One is tight, the other is loose and this is going to be critical information for ranging the opp.
Against a top 15% hand, I'm only a 51.3% favorite to win the hand and would expect to most likely be in a race. Against a top 70% hand, I'm a 2-1 favorite. Against a top 5% hand, I'm a 2-1 dog.

With 6 at the table, there's somewhere between 11-13 left and the top 7 cash. There is only the one short stack at my table, so unless the other table is a huge stack and the rest shorties... then I probably need to get more chips in order to get ITM.

When the opp raises here, I'm either going to 3-bet or fold here... and if I 3-bet, I'm ready to call a 4-bet shove.
I don't like flatting, as the opp could easily have 2 overcards here and when an over (or 2 or 3 overs) hits on the flop, I'll be in a sticky situation, as I wouldn't know if they've hit or are c-bet bluffing at me.

This is where the read info will come into play. If the opp is really playing a top 15% hand (or even tighter with a 5% preflop raise), then I'm going to muck to his raise and look for a better situation. If the opp is playing a top 70% hand, then I'm a 66% favorite and will have almost 50% into the pot.

Most likely, I would think the opp here is going to be tight, not loose and I'm going to muck here, still have a very playable stack and look for a better spot. I shouldn't need that many more chips to get ITM and would hope that with 28BB, I can find a better spot.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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