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10NL 6-max deep stacked: could i have raised here?

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10NL 6-max deep stacked: could i have raised here? - Sun May 13, 2012, 03:08 PM
(#1)
magiciantom's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 61
i was 64 hands in the session and had a tight image. The villian was a regular with stats of 23/15 and 1.71 AF. once he bet the flop for not a very big amount i figuered i could take it down if he checked to me on the turn. On the turn the 8 came giving me a straight and he bet pretty big. Should i have raised here or perhaps on the river? Because of the bet sizing i thought he might have had a boat.

 
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Sun May 13, 2012, 05:13 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Most important mistake in this hand is your preflop play. Calling with J9 suited is really loose and is going to get you into a lot of tough spots postflop. J9s could be argued for or against. Being in position is important and really helps.

The call on the flop is ok if your floating with a plan. Simply calling hoping to hit your gutshot on a paired board is of course a terrible idea. You seem to have had a plan so that is good.

On the turn a raise is a really great play. He is representing hands like AT, overpairs, or a full house. AK could certainly still be in his range, but less likely with a decent regular TAG. Not a lot of motivation for him to turn AK into a pure bluff OOP when the turn didn't change much(except against your exact hand lol). Full house is extremely unlikely purely on an odds basis. A check raise would be super strong on that turn, but a raise in position could easily be interpreted as a float by the reg villain. He is unlikely to let QQ go if you do raise as there are not a whole lot of hands in your perceived range that beats him. Really doubt he will put much weight on the idea you have J9 specifically.

All my opinion of course. Hope this helps though!
 
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Sun May 13, 2012, 05:23 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
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Hi magiciantom,

I would generally just fold this preflop. Unless the guy has a large cut off steal % in which case I may 3b him a bit more liberally here. I guess if there's a big fish in the blinds I'd be ok with the 4x call to drag the fish in, since we are playing deep stacked.

I like the float on the flop with the specific reads you have on this villain. You have some outs to improve and a reasonable plan for how you will proceed when you don't improve, yielding if he continues to fire and taking it away if he gives up. As described the villain sounds like he may be a good float target, so no problem there.

On the turn I would raise here for sure. The villain fires again so I think his range is very strongly weighted to overpairs if our read is right. If he's got T's full, nh. The board has become particularly wet now, he may well perceive that there are enough worse hands and draws in our range that he can't fold an overpair, and with all the possible draws/scary river cards, he may make a mistake and come back over the top right now, allowing us to get stacks in before one of those horrific river cards scare him away from putting any more chips in the pot. Any 6, 9, J, or spade may slow down his willingness to pay us. If he happens to be on a draw himself, like AsKs, you want to get more money in now while he still has a draw as he won't give you action when he misses.

So my answer is I'd raise the turn, and be willing to stack off if he reraises... sure he can have a full house, but there are more combos of overpairs and a villain like this should be prone to making mistakes with overpairs, so go ahead and extract imo.

Dave


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Sun May 13, 2012, 05:27 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
...with a decent regular TAG.
Assuming we have a reasonable sample size of hands (which we must from prior sessions, since we identify villain as a reg), he is not a decent TAG. DUCY?


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Sun May 13, 2012, 05:56 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Assuming we have a reasonable sample size of hands (which we must from prior sessions, since we identify villain as a reg), he is not a decent TAG. DUCY?
Good point Dave. I think I forgot about the specifics magic provided and ran with the idea he was up against a solid regular TAG in this hand. The stats provided do say otherwise, and the 4x BB open raise from cutoff is interesting as well.
 
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Sun May 13, 2012, 06:27 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Right... an AF of 1.7 over a large sample size is very unlikely to be a winning player, it's just too passive post flop (could be fine over a small sample like just this table).


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