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NL16 Q2 limped pot river play?

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NL16 Q2 limped pot river play? - Mon May 14, 2012, 04:01 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $14.08 (88 bb)
CO: $16.70 (104.4 bb)
BTN: $44.25 (276.6 bb)
SB: $27.92 (174.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $19.27 (120.4 bb)
UTG: $17.45 (109.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:club: 2:heart:
UTG folds, MP calls $0.16, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.40) Q:heart: J:spade: Q:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.38, MP calls $0.38

Turn: ($1.16) J:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.11, MP calls $1.11

River: ($3.38) 5:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.72, MP raises to $8, Hero folds

[spoil]Results: $8.82 pot ($0.40 rake)
Final Board: Q:heart: J:spade: Q:diamond: J:club: 5:heart:
MP mucked and won $8.42 ($4.05 net)
Hero mucked Q:club: 2:heart: and lost (-$4.37 net)
[/spoil][/hand_history][/converted_hand]

Villain's stats: VPIP:36 PFR:10 Agg freq: 53% H:106

He raised me on the river. What is the good play here? I fold here, because I think that he could easily have a better Q here.
 
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Mon May 14, 2012, 05:11 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco.

In my opinion your river fold is a mistake.

With the J pairing on the river, you have no need to worry about your 2 kicker, as you are only playing the Q from your hand, and QQJJ on board for top FH. The only hand the villain could have that beats you is quad Js. While the opponent might have this hand, it is more likely you are chopping, he holds a lesser FH, or is bluffing. As such, this is an insta-call in my opinion.

It is quite likely the opp is chopping the pot with you, which means you will be paying max rake, but if you fold your $4.30+ investment in fear of the rake, you will be losing far more a lot more often.

You may want to spend a bit more time in reading the "nut" hand on various boards, as I am never folding the 2nd nut after getting this deeply invested (ok, almost never).

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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