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NL16 QQ tough spot on the river

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NL16 QQ tough spot on the river - Mon May 14, 2012, 04:10 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (UTG): $19.21 (120.1 bb)
MP: $19.61 (122.6 bb)
CO: $16 (100 bb)
BTN: $16.36 (102.3 bb)
SB: $16 (100 bb)
BB: $14.53 (90.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q:heart: Q:spade:
Hero raises to $0.48, 4 folds, BB calls $0.32

Flop: ($1.04) Q:diamond: K:heart: T:club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.64) 2:club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.08, BB calls $2.08

River: ($6.80) 4:diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $11.17, Hero folds

[spoil]Results: $6.80 pot ($0.31 rake)
Final Board: Q:diamond: K:heart: T:club: 2:club: 4:diamond:
Hero mucked Q:heart: Q:spade: and lost (-$3.36 net)
BB mucked and won $6.49 ($3.13 net)
[/spoil][/hand_history][/converted_hand]

Villain's stats: VPIP:65 PFR:4 Agg freq: 29% H:25

His plays didn't make sense for me, but he is a very passive player, and when we are on the river I checked his river agression and it was 0 out of 7. It was a really tough spot for me, but I just mucked my hand. What is the good play here?
 
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Mon May 14, 2012, 11:22 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco.

On the river you are facing a call of $11.17 for a chance to win $17.97, and you are getting about 1.6 to 1. This means you need to have about 38.5% equity to break even on a call (if you make it). the question then becomes: Do you have that sort of equity with 2nd set?

Your hand is the 4th nut hand, but practically speaking it is the 3rd nut, since even this opp's uber low PFR may see him raising KK. Of the 2 other hands that beat you (AJ/J9), both are in the potential range of this opponent to call a raise by you from the BB.

His aggression on the river is a sign that he holds a strong hand, but the question for you becomes "how strong a hand does this guy have?"

You note that he showed 0 for 7 river aggression when you checked your HUD data, but did you by any chance note WHAT hands he was calling down on the river?

If you haven't been watching closely enough to see which hands he will call down (as opposed to act aggressively with), it makes your risk/reward assessment a lot harder even if you are aware of the equity you "need" to break even. This guy is pretty passive pre flop, but he has a more normal aggression profile post flop (albeit still a bit on the passive side), so there IS a chance he is jamming on a lesser set, or a 2 pair hand, and not just AJ/J9.

To actually make a decision in this spot whether or not the opponent is jamming TT/KQ/K4 etc, often enough to give you the equity you need to call you need to be watching what hands he is calling vs those he is raising, and if you are not able to do that (such as if you are multi tabling), then your safer course here is probably to fold.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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