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NL16 JTs 3-bet pot river broke?

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NL16 JTs 3-bet pot river broke? - Wed May 16, 2012, 03:57 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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MP: $24.78 (154.9 bb)
CO: $18.08 (113 bb)
BTN: $30.86 (192.9 bb)
SB: $17.96 (112.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $16.24 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T:diamond: J:diamond:
3 folds, SB raises to $0.48, Hero raises to $1.44, SB calls $0.96

Flop: ($2.88) 4:diamond: 9:club: 5:diamond: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.60, SB calls $1.60

Turn: ($6.08) 2:club: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($6.08) 3:diamond: (2 players)
SB bets $5.12, Hero raises to $13.20 and is all-in, SB calls $8.08

Villain's stats: VPIP:34 PFR:20 Agg freq:33% H:41

His steal from the SB is 67% (3), and I don't have any read that he is capable of folding to a 3-bet. So preflop maybe it was a mistake when I 3-bet him. But as played the river shove is good here? Of course he will have here better flush sometimes, but he can have a set TT or JJ or a straight. Am I right here?
 
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Wed May 16, 2012, 09:03 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco.

I think your self-analysis of a pre flop 3bet is spot on.

Versus a steal range this wide, JTs will tend to give enough equity versus a steal rate like this where you are really probably better off ensuring you get to see a flop. Your hand is not strong enough to call a 4bet if the villain continues his aggression, and while you;d not "mind" if the villain folds, a lot of the time a player showing these stats is going to fold hands that are a lot worse than your JTs, costing you value.

So...

I'd much rather see a flop with position on an opp like this when holding a hand with the potential of JTs myself.

A flush draw and 2 overs hits you on the flop, and given the villain is the type to have called your 3bet pre pretty widely, I have no issue at all in trying to leverage the strength you represented pre flop by c betting. Had you elected to flat his raise I'd be much more prone to check behind and take a free card in this spot, but with your 3bet pre I much prefer to act exactly as you did and C Bet.

Nice job.

When he checks the turn and you have not improved, in that spot I really like your check behind.

By calling your C Bet, the villain has essentially said he is not ready to give up on the hand, but he also has effectively announced he kinda/sorta "likes" this flop. As such, any bet you might make on the turn is going to be a bluff in most cases.

The depth of money here means he could easily bluff you back for an amount you are unwilling to call, or worse, he could value bet you for an amount which poses a pretty tough decision for you in terms of whether you have the right equity to call.

Since there is probably an amount he might check/raise that you'd be willing to call (given your large number of potential outs), and since you have no real clarity that a bluff bet will net you the desired result (a fold), I definately think that checking behind to take the free card now is preferable.

Again, good job.

On the river you spike your flush, and the villain leads pretty strongly at the pot.

The pot was $6.08, villain led for $5.12, and you had about $13.20 left in your stack. That is a pretty good spot to represent hitting the scare card river on a bluff. The board also has enough hands that he may hold that are "good enough" for him to stack off on, but not good enough to beat your flush to make a move all in your best option.

If you shove, the villain will be facing a decision to call off $8.08 for a chance to win $24.40 at 3 to 1 pot odds. this means he only has to be "right" 25% of the time to break even.

This means he is probably going to call off on any flush+ (you hold the 3rd nut flush, and also lose to 3 x straight flush combos), but I'd certainly think an opp that loves aggro steal shots would possibly play a strong draw (like Axd or KQd) more aggro than this.

As such, I totally agree with your river shove for value, and I think you are easily +eV to make it.

well played hand over all, no matter what the outcome...

Hope it helps!

-JDean


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