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NL10 AKs river fold?

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NL10 AKs river fold? - Fri May 18, 2012, 12:44 PM
(#1)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $7.34 (73.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $13.13 (131.3 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)
SB: $10.49 (104.9 bb)
BB: $12.17 (121.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K:spade: A:spade:
MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN folds, SB calls $0.35, BB folds, MP calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.30) 2:heart: A:heart: 6:diamond: (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.93, SB folds, MP calls $0.93

Turn: ($3.16) 4:spade: (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.26, MP calls $2.26

River: ($7.68) 5:club: (2 players)
MP bets $3.75 and is all-in, Hero folds

[spoil]Results: $7.68 pot ($0.35 rake)
Final Board: 2:heart: A:heart: 6:diamond: 4:spade: 5:club:
MP mucked and won $7.33 ($3.74 net)
Hero mucked K:spade: A:spade: and lost (-$3.59 net)
[/spoil][/hand_history][/converted_hand]

Villain's stats: VPIP:75 PFR:4 Agg freq:42% H:51

The river fold is good here? I think here he has a two pair most of the time or a straight, so that was the reason why I folded this hand against him. Am I right here?
 
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Fri May 18, 2012, 02:36 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Nocco.

Generally speaking, you should not fold this river very often when you hold top/top.

1) The stack to pot ratio going to the flop was a bit over 5 versus the effective stack.

2) Your C bet with tp/tk eliminated the SB from the hand, and left you heads up with the shorter stack. This means you did not face the potential to lose MORE than a flat call to that larger stack if you called and the SB jammed the river on a C/R.

3) Your TURN bet built the pot to $7.68, and left only a bit under a half pot bet in the villain's stack when he called. This means you are getting on the order of 3 to 1 to call his river shove; you only need to be "right" in calling roughly 25% to break even on a call. By folding you are guarenteeing you lose the money you've invested.

4) While the opponent is very LOOSE, and pretty passive pre flop, he is much more aggro post flop. He can certainly hold a 3 in his hand, or a rag A that made 2 pair, but his level of post flop aggression also increases the chances that he would attempt a last ditch bluff of a busted flush draw, and/or over value a hand like A8/A9/AT/AJ/AQ here as well.

So...

The question I have to ask you is WHY do you think the majority of the time this villain holds an 2 pair hand or a straight?

and...

Do you think he will hold a straight or 2 pair hand here at least 75% of the time?

Stack to pot ratio is not the end all/be all of deciding whether you should call a shove like this, but it is an effective tool to PLAN around the possibility you might see a shove like this.

The SPR of 5 is considered to be a low SPR that favors committing on a hand like top pair, top kicker but if you are facing an opponent who is so TIGHT he would not call a C Bet by you with less in his hand, then betting to commit yourself with TP/TK would be pretty foolish. You really do NOT have an opponent here that is likely that tight though...

In this spot you have a villain who is weak enough to stay on all sorts of cheesy holdings that might get there on you to make TPTK no good. Against someone this loose, obviously the danger of a 4 card straight on the board increases your chances, as does a big variety of low cards that could have hit a rag A this guy might play. I must be honest, a lot of the time a "threat" that got there against you on the river was already present on the turn, so you really have to question your reasons for making a turn bet that leaves only a half pot bet in your opponent's stack.

- If you thought you were ahead on the turn, why not bet at LEAST full pot to ensure you get the most from him if/when he misses, and also to make a river call much easier for you (why not "commit" to your hand)? This guy is probably weak enough to call off that amount with less if he is willing to call off the $2.26 you did bet, so why not make him pay the extra cost?

- If you were reluctant to do this because you felt you might be beaten, then why not bet LESS on the turn (say around $1.25 to $1.30) to make a potential river fold to a shove cheaper?

So to me the REAL question here lies in your turn bet sizing, and what that does to your ability to FOLD on a bad card.

In this spot, I agree that you probably are beat a majority of the time by this river, but given the opp's stats I'd find it a bit hard to think you are beaten more than 75% of the time. As such, you probably have to make a "crying call" here if only to keep yourself from being too bluff-able.

But the REAL thing to ask yourself is why were you ready to commit yourself with your turn bet if you were not willing to follow through on that commitment on the river.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri May 18, 2012 at 02:38 PM..
 
Old
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Fri May 18, 2012, 02:55 PM
(#3)
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
Thanks for the very deep analysis I see the situation much clearer now, and you are right I should bet smaller on the turn to fold on a potential bad river card, or as played call the river.
 

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