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NL10 AA turn fold after check minraise?

NL10 AA turn fold after check minraise? - Tue May 22, 2012, 06:13 AM
Nocco88's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 37
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (MP): $17.81 (178.1 bb)
CO: $6.58 (65.8 bb)
BTN: $4.72 (47.2 bb)
SB: $3.04 (30.4 bb)
BB: $10.82 (108.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A:heart: A:club:
Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 4:spade: 6:club: 4:heart: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45) 8:club: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.03, BB raises to $2.06, Hero folds

Villain's stats: VPIP:46 PFR:15 Agg freq:32% H:73

I just folded my hand here, because he check/minraised me here, and according to the Baluga Theorem. It was good, because he wasn't representing to much here, and maybe he do it with weaker overpairs?
Tue May 22, 2012, 11:04 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi Nocco,

I'm not folding here personally. The Baluga theorem is more and more relevant the tighter/more straightforward a villain is. This guy's stats over the first 73 hands indicate anything but. Of course we can be beat here but there are also a lot of worse hands I could see them showing up with like overpairs, pair+draws, just draws, etc. Bad loose and aggressive players should show up with enough worse hands in a spot like this that I would generally call, and call any reasonable river bet or value bet the river myself if checked to.

That's my thoughts anyway.


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