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how to play AK when missed.

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how to play AK when missed. - Thu May 24, 2012, 02:21 PM
(#1)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
hi guys,



no real reads on the opponent only some stats that indicate he is a weaker player. also his small 3bet and stack size indicate he is a weaker player.

Therefore clearly a raise for value, big enough? too big?

However I miss the flop.

What do you think of my C-bet size?

How about the turn barrel? I was thinking about check-folding, however the card was pretty scary one.
 
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Thu May 24, 2012, 03:43 PM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I feel like a smaller 4-bet could have achieved the same result while saving you money when things don't go well post flop. Maybe a 4-bet around $1.70. You risk $.70 cents less for same result. Then the flop is $1.40 smaller, around $3.60. You could then make the same or even slightly smaller c-bet that will look even stronger due to the pot size. A $2.20 c-bet into a $3.60 pot is more powerfull than a $2.40 c-bet into a $5 pot.

Other than that the c-bet on that flop with two overs seems fairly standard and +EV. After getting called though, the turn is super tricky for you. It is like you said, a decent scare card to double barrel. At the same time, your in a lot of trouble after being called on that flop. More often than not your going to be way behind. It is a tough spot and you could argue for betting or checking. I think I would be inclined to check behind and hope for an A, K, T, or diamond on the river. If an A or K hits I would be hoping to check behind again, and the 4th diamond could be a good bluffing card if villain checks river. If anything besides a T hits the river I am folding to a decent sized bet. If a T hits river, I'm betting all of them if checked to except the T of diamonds. The T of diamonds I would be looking to check behind and go to showdown.

 
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Thu May 24, 2012, 03:48 PM
(#3)
animosama's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 63
The opponent min raise which meant he many have face cards, pocket pairs, suit connectors.
The flop came quite wet with flush draws and straight draws. You bet and he called. Qd is a very scary card for it hit is range and flush has reached your opponent in now committed and wont be going anywhere and you still haven't improved to anything. You should have checked flop here for it is less likely for him to be bluff.
 
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Thu May 24, 2012, 04:43 PM
(#4)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
I totally dont agree with 4betting smaller, this is a weaker opponent and will call with weaker hands, my question about 4bet size should it been bigger. 1,70$ is not even 2.5 X his 3bet, we invite the other player almost in to call with an unmade hand. Imo 2.40$ is the bare minimum ?

is 4bet shoving profitable here?
 
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Thu May 24, 2012, 05:24 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
4-bet shoving could be profitable, but it really depends on the ranges of both players. The open raise range, the 3-bet range of the weak player, and then what their calling range would be if you shoved.
 
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Thu May 24, 2012, 05:45 PM
(#6)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
With no real reads except a suspicion he is weak I am flatting the three bet. The pot is already bloated I am out of position, and AK is not a made hand, it needs improvement. Even worse it could be a three way pot. When I miss on the flop. I am just shutting down. If this is a weak player, I will have much better opportunities in the future when I have a good read on him. The time to play a big pot is when you have things in your favour,


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Fri May 25, 2012, 05:32 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Sjekkk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bearxing View Post
With no real reads except a suspicion he is weak I am flatting the three bet. The pot is already bloated I am out of position, and AK is not a made hand, it needs improvement. Even worse it could be a three way pot. When I miss on the flop. I am just shutting down. If this is a weak player, I will have much better opportunities in the future when I have a good read on him. The time to play a big pot is when you have things in your favour,
See this ^^

In this spot I much prefer a flat oop as well.

By 4betting the flop without any real idea of the range on which the opp might call, or on what he might do with various hands in a bloated pot (SPR of about 1.3), you make it very hard to effectively C Bet for value the 2/3rds of the times you miss and also make it quite hard to bet as a bluff and get folds of better hands the 2/3rds of the time you miss. The fact the opp has just a bit over a pot sized bet left in his stack also makes it quite hard to NOT C Bet after you took the betting lead pre flop on the 2/3rds of times you miss.

I am really not in favor of a smaller 4bet as an option either, because even a min 4bet is going to leave you in a situation without any clarity of action on the 2/3rds of the flops you miss, but it leaves more in the villain's stack to bluff on and costs more than a flat.

Personally, I'd be much more in favor of a LARGER 4bet rather than smaller. If you think the opp will just go ahead and commit on hands like AT+ or any pp, why not just raise to put him all in, or raise to something like $6 or $7 to go and leave him only a shove or fold decision pre flop? Your AK is going to have a coin flip vs all but 2 hands, and leaving a $1 or $2 in the opp's stack makes your decision on any flop automatic.

I gotta be honest though, I do not really love the larger 4bet option, and far too often a weak opp is just going to fold the cheese end of his 3bet range, and you probably stand a lot better chance extracting value from him post flop than with a big pre flop move. And as any 4bet is simply going to bloat the pot and muddy my decision in face of a lack of opp info going forward, the way to go is flat and play fit or fold until a time I have a better idea on what this opp is likely to do.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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