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Bad call? Zoom poker no read

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Bad call? Zoom poker no read - Fri May 25, 2012, 06:52 PM
(#1)
gygabet's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 1
 
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Fri May 25, 2012, 09:59 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Gygabet!

Welcome to the PSO!

Being new here, I'd like to point out the tabs at the top of your page before I start your hand analysis.

The "Videos" tab links to some great stuff by both Poker Stars pros, and our awesome team of PSO trainers. There are a ton of archived lessons on some of the concepts needed to play poker well, and also a lot of review sessions where you can gain insight into how others think about the game of poker.

You also may enjoy sitting in on some live training sessions. Those sessions give you a chance to interact with our trainers via typed chat, as well as watching them either play, or show re-player views of past hands. It can really be beneficial to players of all levels to have immediate feed back regarding some of the sticky situations we ll face in poker!


Now your hand... :-)

In large part Zoom poker is pretty ABC stuff because of the near total lack of reads.

When there is an open raise in front of you, I really think your 3bet is a good reaction.

- You really do not "mind" taking the pot immediately, because you will tend to miss the flop about 2/3rds of the time with AK.
- Your hand is strong enough that it can play well versus a call of your 3bet usually.
- with a 3bet you create a more beneficial Stack to Pot ratio versus a caller for when you do flop the most likely hits you might make.
- you improve your chances of getting just a single caller which increases the playability of hands AK might hit.
- your hand is suited so it is slightly better in case you wind up with multiple callers in a bloated pot.

Also, your 3bet sizing choice is within a normal sizing (you made it 2 times more than the original bet), so it does not stick you to the pot overly much if huge action breaks out and you must consider folding, and/or if you miss the flop and a caller leads into you strong.

You get a short stack who flats your 3bet (leaving only $1.19 in the caller's stack), and that raises the pot to 59c. You then see the open raiser jam his remaining $2.49, leaving you with a decision to call $2.33 for a chance to win $3.08.

Right there you are getting a price of about 1.3 to 1 on a call, and that means you need to have about 43.5% equity to break even on a call. You are not quite getting the price you need versus a range of TT+/AK, and given the strong move by this opp you can probably assume that is a reasonable range for him to shove. (note: TT+/AK gives you 43.375%, and is really close to break even).

Of course you may not be facing just a single caller...

In reality the villain behind you is short enough that if he holds a hand he is likely to flat your 3bet on, he is also quite likely to stay in the now pretty fat pot. If that villain does come along, your real "price" becomes $2.33 for a chance to win $4.27, and you can expect more along the lines of 1.8 to 1 in implied odds to call the shove. In this case, you need about 35.7% equity to break even on a call if you expect a large amount of the time the short stack will come along as well.

Even if we assume a wider call range for the short stack of 77+/AQ+ because he only flatted your 3bet rather than 4bet, you only are going to see about 29% equity here due to the potential for shared outs with either the short stack or the initial all in. As such, even AKs is probably a FOLD in this spot.

You see Gygabet, when you lack info on the sorts of hands your opponents might shove on like this, it is really hard to widen them sufficiently to warrant continuing with a hand like AKs. When you cannot put opponents on a wider range of hands because you lack info, the benefit of being "made" in large pot all in situations goes way up.

If we were to change your holding to JJ you'd have around 31% equity, and I know for most people JJ would be a far easier fold here than AKs. The truth is though, versus the pretty tight ranges we are forced to assign given the action, JJ should be a call before AKs is.

It really takes switching to QQ, which would give you around 38.5% equity, to consider a call in the face of this kind of action when you lack reads.

The thing I try to remember is that money I do not LOSE spends exactly the same as the money I win, and with AK here I am almost certain losing the 50% or so of the time I do not connect when the board runs out. Because we lack info to do otherwise, we cannot help but weight the ranges here toward hands that may NOT be coin flips for us, so even spiking may not be enough to win a good bit of the time.

Were it not for the short stack flatting your 3bet, you can make a case for going ahead and standing on your AKs because even adding 1 "extra" hand to the tight range we gave the shover is going to give you the price you need. But that flat just represents too much of a chance some of your outs are burnt when you do see the shove.

So all in all, I figure this is a spot where I am going to get another hand immediately if I fold, and I'd really rather have the extra chips in my stack for when a better spot comes along.

Hope it helps!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri May 25, 2012 at 10:02 PM..
 

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