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Pot odds & MMT

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Pot odds & MMT - Tue May 29, 2012, 09:28 AM
(#1)
Klumn's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 31
When playing in a cash game calling with the correct odds - unless you have a strong reason to believe your draw will be no good even if you hit it - is a no brainer, you will continue with the hand.

In an MMT do other considerations override a maths call?

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E.g.

Blinds 50/100 Ante 10
Villain 'A' [With 4100] raises in Middle position (300), One Fold, Villain 'B' [With 3400] calls (300), Hero [With 3000] calls on the button with (300), Blinds both fold.

Pot [1140]
Flop:

Villain 'A' continues for (900), Villain 'B' Calls (900)

Pot [2940]
Here is my sticking point the expressed pot odds are laying 3.2:1. Our hero has a draw to the nuts and an over-card giving him 3.9:1 to win. Our hero Has 2700 remaining in his stack so the call represents a third of his stack.

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What should he do? I can see a three options.

Flat call - I don't like it because it is really committing us to the pot. If we hit a spade, great! if we don't we could be facing a bigger turn bet even an all in. Is it a good idea to get heavily committed here and walk away on the turn losing 12bb?

Fold - Should we give up the equity we have? or was this draw what we were hoping for pre-flop?

Shove - I really don't think we are being called by worse. PokerStove tells me we are 53% Fav against random holdings, 43% to tighter ranges and about 40% if one of the Villains holds a King. Should we really flip for the tourney here?

I often find myself lost in spots where my pot odds say 'yes' but other considerations point to 'no.'
Do we follow the pot odds knowing it was a good bet or hang the maths this time and wait for better spots?
 
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Tue May 29, 2012, 10:41 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Hi Klumn!

In a tourney the pot odds definitely need to be taken into consideration. Also, the type of tourney, where I stand in the tourney (chip stack compared to the others), whether or not I'm ITM, how the opps have been playing, etc... all need to be taken into consideration.

In this situation, since the blind is only 100, I'm most likely nowhere near getting ITM, so I'm looking to accumulate chips to get ITM. On the flop, I need to call 900 into a pot that will be 3740 (24%). I have 9 outs to the flush and possibly 3 more to the A (although with 2 opps in the hand, I'd discount the ace outs as I could easily be outkicked by one of the opps if the ace hits). For my 9 outs to the flush, I have 2% per out in equity going to the turn (18%) and if there are no turn bets I have 4% per out to the river (36%).

If the opps are playing passive (most likely won't bet the turn) then my hand equity of 36% is higher than the pot equity (24%) and I should call.
If the opps are aggressive and betting all the streets, then I have 18% hand equity and 24% pot equity... so I should fold the flop.

In this case, it will depend on the opps playing styles, as in one scenario I have the pot odds to call, in the other I do NOT have the correct odds to call.

Tourneys are not like cash games, where a player can automatically reload in the same tourney, so I don't want to be shoving unless I know that I will have the best hand after all 5 cards are on the board.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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