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Should i risk it?

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Should i risk it? - Fri Jun 01, 2012, 06:25 PM
(#1)
danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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ok its hubbles just over 800 people left im just about 3k below average
the table was quite fun it reminded me of the big game where everyone is loose, super agro but playing well, knowing when to make a move
so i was a bit loose also but profitable in my plays didnt lose big pots until this hand
so should i hv risked my tourney life on that flop?
i had perfect odds to call but calling means 1/2 my stack so i shoved it(should i have looked for another spot to ship it taking into consideration my odds here and my tourney life)

 
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correction - Fri Jun 01, 2012, 06:31 PM
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danan758's Avatar
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well i didnt hv perfect odds to call but they were quite close
 
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Fri Jun 01, 2012, 08:47 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi danan758!

With UTG making a std raise and the SB calling, I'm mucking 45s here. When I put 45s into pokerstove against even two top 10% hands (one could be typically be wider than this while the other could be much tighter than this), my 45s only has 26.7% equity. If everyone stays in the hand, then I'll be invested bascially 33% into the pot. My hand equity is lower than the pot equity, so I'm folding.

If I was in the hand, the flop gives me an OESD and a flush draw, so I have 15 outs. 15 outs gives me 30% hand equity to the turn and 60% to the river.
To call the opps bet, I need to put 4200 into a pot that will be 11325 (37.1%). The pot equity is higher than my hand equity to the turn, so therefore I do not want to call.
If I shove, then I'm putting 8326 into a pot that will be 19577 (42.5%). By shoving, I will get to guarantee seeing both cards. Due to this, my hand has 60% equity vs 42.5% pot equity. Therefore a shove is a much better play than a call.

I'm going to muck the 45s preflop in this type of situation, as on average I will be losing about 7% of my chips, each time that I play 45s in this situation. I have plenty of chips (29BB) that I can wait and find a better situation that is a +EV situation, instead of a -EV play.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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thanks - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 10:16 AM
(#4)
danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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ok i get that i made a bad choice calling the 45s
but i have a tendancy to defend with smaller suited connecters
for eg. if i defended with k8s and i made top pair i could easily be calling small raises on all streets
where as if i dont get two pair with my 45s i would fold
so is defending with 45s or other small suited connecters a bad choice?
 
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Sat Jun 02, 2012, 11:13 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi danan758!

defending raises with small connectors, especially from the SB, can be a big chip leak... especially if the opps are tighter players from early position.
Normally, the earlier the position that the opp is in, the better their hand has to be in order for them to raise. I'm more likely to call a raise or complete from the SB with small suited connectors if the raise is coming from late position (the later the opp's position, the wider their range should be) and also only if I have a very large chip stack.
The reason that it's a chip leak is that if I don't hit 2 pair, open-ended str8 draw, flush draw, I'm mucking and..... I won't hit these enough to get the chips back for the times that I have to muck. Even if I hit one pair, A4, A5, 44 and 55 are well within the opponents range, so I can easily not have the best hand.

I'd recommed watching the videos that Dave (TheLangolier) has done on blind play, videos 81, 82, 86, 88.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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.. - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 11:52 AM
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danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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thanks
 
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they dont work - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 11:55 AM
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danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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u sent me a link prior to this one on a video which didnt work i tried this one out still wont work
it shows a small x in the top left hand corner
 
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Sat Jun 02, 2012, 11:58 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danan758 View Post
u sent me a link prior to this one on a video which didnt work i tried this one out still wont work
it shows a small x in the top left hand corner
they're all working for me. just tried them. Make sure your flash player is up-to-date. It's what is used to watch the videos.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jun 02, 2012, 02:02 PM
(#9)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
Hi Danan. If you have updated your software and are still having problems you should contact Support@PokerSchoolOnline.com. Another of the Langoliers videos I would recommend is #10: Three betting essentials. Defending your blinds entails a lot of 3betting.

Good luck on getting your video problem solved
Doug


3 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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thanks - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 08:23 PM
(#10)
danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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i updated my flash player it was my fault i use two laptops and only updated one
but thanks alot guys
 
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importBT - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 09:00 PM
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danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ment-Decisions


i find really important for future reference by moderaters and future viewers of this post,
i had never known about a commitment plan in such depth i just went on th 1/3 rule after watching this video i believe it can eliminate alot of our post here as we are forced to make calls for our stack which we initially could hv prevented
 
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Sat Jun 02, 2012, 10:29 PM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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Hi danan!

That won't 100% always hold true though. It will also depend on the chip stacks, where you're at in a tourney and the style of tourney. There won't be 1 set way to play things, as they will change with the table dynamics.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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true - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 10:58 PM
(#13)
danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
SilverStar
yh there are exceptions, every sitaution may differ but i wish i knew that ealier heck had i known that earlier today i could hv helped my at a $1500 prize pool tourney which i got knocked out at 69th i realized that play could hv helped my just 2 hands before i got knocked out

he even talks about situation about antonius' play which some may not pick up on but basically shows you when you are in danger with aces and why u should practise pot control with aces Qs Ks etc...
 
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typos - Sat Jun 02, 2012, 11:04 PM
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danan758's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 93
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for the benefit of some (my) i meant (me) i know (y) and (e) are far apart but its a mistake
 

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