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Turned flush with paired board.

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Turned flush with paired board. - Sun Jun 03, 2012, 05:25 AM
(#1)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745


My opponent ipr2407 is capable of limping any two cards here and I have seen them try and take lots of pots by using aggression, so my plan is to try and hit something and use their aggression against them.

My question is should I draw to the flush on a paired board and should I raise the river on a paired board?

When they bet the river I expected my opponent to mostly have air, so I did not think they would call a raise, but they could have a full house with a paired board, so what is the best play on the river ?

This tournament is the Saturday Micro.
 
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Sun Jun 03, 2012, 10:55 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi 73REX73!

With QTs, since the serial limper has already limped, I could limp along also, but.... I'd also want a read on the players left to act. If anyone that has position on me could be limping too, then I'd want to raise if I'm going to play the hand, as I'd want to not only narrow the field, but I would want to try to isolate the limper that I have position on. I wouldn't want to have someone behind me limping with cards that dominate me (bigger Q or 10), as that could cost me a big pot.
Due to this, I'm making a std raise preflop to 320 (3BB+1BB for the limper) if I play the hand.

The flop gives me a flush draw and the initial limper (that is known to be aggro postflop) bets. To call, I need to put 160 chips into a pot that will be 680 (23.5%). I have 9 outs to the flush and with an ace already on the board, I'll discount the Q's or 10's as outs, as I could easily be beat by an A or a 3. With 9 outs, I have 18% equity to the turn and 36% to the river. With the opp known to be aggro post-flop, I'm expecting a bet on the turn, so I only have 18% equity. The pot equity is greater than my hand equity, so I'm mucking and looking for a better spot.

The turn gives me the flush and the opp bets again. With two opps in the hand and a made flush on a board that could already have or has draws to a full house, I'm raising the turn and will size it at 1k chips (between 3X their bet and a pot size raise). The only hands that currently beat me are A3, 35 or a pocket pair that turned into a full house, so I want to raise to get more info on the opp's hand. Yes, they could have one of them, especially A3, but I don't want them drawing cheaply to a single A or 3 for a full house. Raising the turn also sets up a much easier ship on the river if the board doesn't match on the river card.

The river is a blank (unless the opp has JJ or J3) so when the opp leads again, I'm raising and by previously raising the turn, the pot will be large enough that I can ship the river.

This hand is a good example of why I would want to raise preflop, as it will take a number of hands that could beat me, that could be in a limpers range but not in a raiser's range, out of play. Pocket pairs (especially AA or JJ should be raising preflop) so I'd discount them from their range, 35 should not call a preflop raise and neither should J3. This would leave A3, 33 or 55 as the only hands that I'd be worried about. If they have one of them, then I'm paying them off on the river... otherwise, I'm a big table chip leader and set up for a deep run in the tourney.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jun 03, 2012, 06:56 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey

Your thread on The Mental Game of Poker was awesome!! I've got an excerpt from a book I hope you find as useful as I found yours

My book Small Stakes Hold'Em is apparently actually a limit book, but their discussion on hand strengths are the same for no-limit, so I've been using it for that. And I feel like it's helped a lot.

This is what they say about flush draws on paired boards:



I guess JWK kind of touched on that lower vs higher paired board with the mention of the 33


I had a hand about a month ago before I got to that part of the book, and I did suspect on the river that I might have been up against a boat, but with that turn bet I made, the pot got all bloated and I wound up feeling kind of pot-committed?

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=1F5D5DA93E

I wish I had been a little more cautious since the pair was an 8 ... maybe I still had room to just call? :/

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Jun 03, 2012 at 07:01 PM..
 
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Mon Jun 04, 2012, 04:59 AM
(#4)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745
Thanks for the replies.

I am trying to imagine what would happen if I isolate the limper and they call and bet into me on the flop the same percentage of the pot bet as they did in the original hand, of course they may not do this as my isolation bet could well contain an ace, but this is a aggressive player post flop so I think they could.

This is a pokerstove calculation I did:

Board: As 3s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.268% 46.48% 00.79% 66716 1137.00 { QsTs }
Hand 1: 52.732% 51.94% 00.79% 74560 1137.00 { 33, A9s-A2s, J9s-J8s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A9o-A2o }

If I give them a smaller range because I think this player will raise any ace or pocket pair or broadway cards pre flop:

Board: As 3s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.021% 72.97% 02.05% 39011 1095.00 { QsTs }
Hand 1: 24.979% 22.93% 02.05% 12259 1095.00 { J9s-J8s, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s }

Going back to the original analysis I should fold as I have nine outs to the flush , but because of this player tendancies and the range I give them I could be ahead.

Are my ranges correct? I'm maybe narrowing them to much because I know they the result of the hand.

Any replies are appreciated thanks.
 
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Mon Jun 04, 2012, 10:19 AM
(#5)
73REX73's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 745
I have been thinking about this hand some more and if I isolate like Jon advises the original villain most likely folds most of the range I give them anyway and if they did call are most likely to check to the raiser.
 

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