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2 NL 6 Max AK too passive?

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2 NL 6 Max AK too passive? - Mon Jun 04, 2012, 12:55 PM
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TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Villain riclark was 22/15 after 250 hands. Fold to 3 bet is 29%. I have a TAG image on this table.



My thought process:

Preflop - I was OOP AKo, had to charge him for his min raise UTG, thus I 3 bet him.

Flop - Didn't hit my hand. I think it didn't hit his hand either, since he raised UTG. I put him on 2 overcards. Thus I fired a cbet. He called, might have an overpair, or just floating me.

Turn - Bad card for me. At this point, I thought he might have hit his Queen, thus I shut down my aggression, pot controlling. Might be a BAD move. Surprisingly he checks back. Couldn't put him on anything now.

River - Worse card. At this point my hand's 100% beaten, took the check/fold option.

I was wondering if I should have continued a 2nd barrel on the turn to represent a strong pair / set, not allowing him to take advantage at the river?
 
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Mon Jun 04, 2012, 07:25 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Awesome.

My thoughts here are:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
Villain riclark was 22/15 after 250 hands. Fold to 3 bet is 29%. I have a TAG image on this table.

My thought process:

Preflop - I was OOP AKo, had to charge him for his min raise UTG, thus I 3 bet him.
What have I seen this villian min raise with OOP?

A 22/15 player at 6 max is pretty reasonable TAG in style, but there is enough width in his range to let me think AKo will have decent equity even oop. In large part I do not think this raise is great strength, although it could well be a huge hand that is just dying for action.

As I'll miss the flop about 2/3rds of the time, I really do not MIND if he simply folds. The fact is he folds to 3bets about 29%, and with my TAG image he may fold the full extent of that amount, or maybe even a bit more.

How has my table been playing? The more often the table has folded to oop raises in belief they are strength, the more likely it might be this guy is min raising strong to induce action. I really do not think he will 4bet me very often here, but if he does I really need more info on what to do.

Still, all in all I think this guy is on some mid pp like 77/88/99, and as there is such a good chance of an over card falling, I may well be able to win the pot on continuation, but only if I 3bet.

Finally, what does a 3bet do to the pot in relati on to the stacks here? If I make a standard 3bet to 12c, the pot will grow to about 25c, leaving the SPR at a bit over 5 vs the effective stack. This is a tad higher than I might like oop with a top/top type hand, but it is not SO high that it really is going to scare me; anything under SPR of 6 will favor me playing a top/top hit strongly. Also, in case I miss, I can make a standard C Bet without any real need to feel committed.

So I preliminarily read the villain as being on a mid pp, or lesser broadway cards as the most likely holdings, and I C Bet to 12c.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
Flop - Didn't hit my hand. I think it didn't hit his hand either, since he raised UTG. I put him on 2 overcards. Thus I fired a cbet. He called, might have an overpair, or just floating me.
This flop is not very good for me if my read of the opp is correct (a mid pp). I have almost no chance to rep a 6 after 3betting, but there may be a small chance of repping a bigger over pair if I C Bet. The big question is then: Can this villain FOLD a minor over pair on this board if I try to rep something like JJ/QQ/KK?

If only because this is the micro stakes, the answer is "probably not". What are my options then?

1) I can CHECK, and consider a C/R to rep greater strength.

The problem with this is that if he bets a standard amount the pot will probably grow to at least 38c. A C/R would cost me about 40c more (at least), and would grow the pot to at least 78c. If the villain will not fold a minor over pair to me then, given a pot of over $1 and the fact the villain would have only a bit over $2 left in his stack, would probably make it even less likely he would fold a minor over pair to me at any pot. So a C/R would probably grow the pot too big.

2) I can CHECK, then think about a CALL.

Whether or not this is a good line would depend upon what SIZE bets I have typically seen him make for value, and what % of the time I'd think he would fire on misses with hands like KQ/AQ/AJ. I have about a 13% chance to spike top/top on the next card, so I will really not get pot odds for ANY bet I might decide to call, so I will need some measure of implied odds.

A side benefit of this is that the opp may not bet the turn for value thinking I am on a truly strong hand, one I'd seek to slow play, if I check back the flop after 3betting pre. So as long as I do not think he will barrel strongly twice, this may be a far better line than trying an immediate C/R.

3) I can C bet.

This is the most standard line after 3betting. Again though, the most likely hand for the villain to have, a mid pp, is almost never going to fold to a C Bet. But the chance also exists that he will not fold lesser unpaired aces, because the paired board gives him chop outs. It would be bad to C Bet if he does have a mid pp, but very GOOD to C Bet if he holds a lesser ace.

A lot of what I think I do here devolves to a decisio on whether the villian will FOLD if 1 over card to a mid pp he might hold shows. The more likely he is to do that, the more likely I would be to fire a C Bet. But overall, C Betting looks like the line with the most potential, given the info I have from your post Awesome.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
Turn - Bad card for me. At this point, I thought he might have hit his Queen, thus I shut down my aggression, pot controlling. Might be a BAD move. Surprisingly he checks back. Couldn't put him on anything now.
I do not see the Q as a "bad card", and in fact I see it as a pretty GOOD one for me. The Q represents an over to the most likely holding for this opp, and if the C bet didn't work, there is a good chance a 2nd barrel might now work. i think if you believed the C bet had validity, the pot is still small enough after making it, you can make a cse for firing the 2nd barrel, if only to continue the story you told from the start. This is not NECESSARY though, as there is a chance a single over card to a mid pair will not result in a fold that you'd want if you bet. Not betting the 2nd barrel pretty much locks you into a line that is going to make it quite hard to bet the river effectively on a bluff, and even if you spike the river you are going to find it hard to bet for value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
River - Worse card. At this point my hand's 100% beaten, took the check/fold option.
I'd think not in terms that I am 100% beaten by the river card. If the opp holds a mid pp, there is a chance that the river card is going to represent enough of a threat to him NOW that he may feel compelled to fold to a decently sized bet. I would agree though that your line after the C bet was one that fairly SCREAMED "weakness". Screaming weakness when you do not have a hand that deserves screaming "strength", or when you have an opponent who may not LISTEN to what you are saying, is perfectly fine.

As such, you'd be turning AK into a bluff on the river, with very little hope of getting a marginal made hand to fold because you did not fire the 2nd barrel. Once you made your turn decision to check, you had very little hope of getting a hand like 77/88/99 to fold without making your bet suspiciously LARGE. Trying that could have easily led to a call anyway, thus costing yourself more money.

So to sum up Awesome, it was really your TURN decision that dictated your river action in large part. There can easily have been reasons for checking the turn, but once you decided on that course of action a river bet may have been quite hard to justify.

You do not have to win every pot you enter, and sometimes the best you can do is work to minimize your losses.

Hope it helps!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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