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MTT Quiz: ITM %

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MTT Quiz: ITM % - Wed Jun 06, 2012, 01:33 PM
(#1)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
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Here's a quiz regarding large field MTT's, please restrict your answers to only a % at this time:

1. What do you think a strong MTT player's ITM (in the money) % should roughly be on average?

2. What do you think the lowest ITM % is that a winning MTT player could have? (over a large sample size, not some guy who got lucky and binked the Sunday Million)

3. What do you think the highest ITM% is that a player could have and still not be a winning player (have a -ROI)?

I'm curious what you all think, and yes I will have a lesson that comes out of this. Again, for the purposes of this study just give me % answers to the 3 questions, and please do it off the top of your head, don't go looking yours or other players ITM%'s for now. For the purposes of these questions we should define "strong MTT player" and "winning MTT player" as a player who has a positive ROI at MTT's over a reasonable sample size of games. Thanks.


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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 01:52 PM
(#2)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Here's a quiz regarding large field MTT's, please restrict your answers to only a % at this time:

1. What do you think a strong MTT player's ITM (in the money) % should roughly be on average?

2. What do you think the lowest ITM % is that a winning MTT player could have? (over a large sample size, not some guy who got lucky and binked the Sunday Million)

3. What do you think the highest ITM% is that a player could have and still not be a winning player (have a -ROI)?

I'm curious what you all think, and yes I will have a lesson that comes out of this. Again, for the purposes of this study just give me % answers to the 3 questions, and please do it off the top of your head, don't go looking yours or other players ITM%'s for now. For the purposes of these questions we should define "strong MTT player" and "winning MTT player" as a player who has a positive ROI at MTT's over a reasonable sample size of games. Thanks.

Great questions Lango!

1) Strong MTT player I think 10-12% ITM

2) Lowest ITM % for a winning player around 7-8%ITM (that's for nits like Lango)

3) Highest ITM possible must be close to 50% - if all the cashes are min-cash which is usually only around double the buy in or less - I'm gonna go for as high as 55% ITM and still a loser!!!

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 02:26 PM
(#3)
TEXASKICK's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 194
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What about those who play double or nothings? I don't personally but their numbers are very different...I think I agree with Edin on his numbers, mine would be about the same
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 02:30 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
All answers made with 100% consideration to your key criteria "large sample size".


1. Roughly 15-17%.

2. Say 10-12%.

3. I'm in the around 50% camp,maybe a little lower. Call it 43-45%.
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 02:30 PM
(#5)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
1. What do you think a strong MTT player's ITM (in the money) % should roughly be on average?

2. What do you think the lowest ITM % is that a winning MTT player could have? (over a large sample size, not some guy who got lucky and binked the Sunday Million)

3. What do you think the highest ITM% is that a player could have and still not be a winning player (have a -ROI)?
1) That depends on the approach the player has. Some are not afraid to bust out early or on the bubble because they only care about running deep for the big cash, while others want to lock up a mincash (which bearxing called "the equivalent of stealing cash blinds", they add up) and then take it from there. The ITM% is irrelevant, I think. But on average, somewhere around 10-16%, depending on the approach.

2) Wide question. Theoretically, it could be as low as 1%. Say I'm playing $1 tournaments. I need to place 6th (roughly) 1/100 times to break even, and anything more than that is a huge profit since a pay jump is at least 50 more buyins. More realistically though, probably ~5-7%.

3) Let's say you play 1000 $1 MTTs. A mincash is $1.50 (it usually is roughly 1,5 buyins). If you mincashed 100% of the time, you would have a profit of $500 (total winnings-total buyins, obviously). If you mincashed 66% of the time, you would have won $995, but spent $1000 on buyins. And a more realistic answer: I've seen losing players with as much as 25% ITM. They lose money slowly, but they still lose, because they mincash at best, with occasional somewhat higher cashes for a few cents/dollars more.

I assumed this means regular MTTs, not 45/90/180/360 man.

....

Last edited by Feskprins; Wed Jun 06, 2012 at 03:15 PM..
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 03:53 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEXASKICK View Post
What about those who play double or nothings? I don't personally but their numbers are very different.
DONs/50Fifties are single table sng's, for the purpose of this thread we are just discussing large field MTT's

Yes though of course DON's would be much different.


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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 03:54 PM
(#7)
taxi128's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 245
STRONG-----------19-20 %
LOW-----------------2-4 %
HIGHEST and still a losing player ( read it wrong at first ) 60-62%

Last edited by taxi128; Wed Jun 06, 2012 at 04:03 PM.. Reason: misread # 3
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 03:55 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
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Posts: 13,479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
I assumed this means regular MTTs, not 45/90/180/360 man.
Correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Here's a quiz regarding large field MTT's,


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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:06 PM
(#9)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
1) depends. If s/he's a min casher, I'd say s/he'd have to cash about 50-55% cash rate in order to be profitable. If s/he manages to regularly finish a tourny on the final table, I'd say more like 10%.

2) assuming little variance in buy in amounts, ~45-50% would be required to break even, so 50-55% for a slim profit.

3) about 40%. See above answer.
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:10 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
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Posts: 24,791
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What are the payout %'s and what is the rake %?

I've played in a number of mtt's that a player could have in the 5% range and be a very solid long-term player. I've also played in some that if you're not well over 40-50%, then you're going to be a losing player... and yes, I mean huge 1k-2k+ entrant MTT's.

typically for a 10% payout, I'd expect about...
1) 20%
2) 7%
3) 40%

If the payout numbers go up or down, along with the rake % going up or down, they could have a large impact on them in either direction.


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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:11 PM
(#11)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
I have two sets of answers
Because of the strength of the fields, ITM should be higher in microstakes if your ROI is positive.

MicroStakes

1) Strong 20%-25% (Range here since different styles give different results)
2) Lowest 15%
3) Highest 30%

Mid/High Stakes

1) Strong 13% - 16%
2) Lowest 8%
3) Highest 20%




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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:20 PM
(#12)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
I think the Highest ITM% while -ve ROI is interesting. It's definately way below 50%. I think people could acheive 50% in some 20% payout micro MTTs but they would likely be +ve ROI since achieving over 30% ITM would require some measure of skill. Add to that sometimes luck would kick in and they will go much deeper than a min cash.




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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:24 PM
(#13)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier
Here's a quiz regarding large field MTT's,
Hahaha, well, at least my subconcious picked it up.

....
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:35 PM
(#14)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
1. What do you think a strong MTT player's ITM (in the money) % should roughly be on average?

I would guess 14% - 17 %.

2. What do you think the lowest ITM % is that a winning MTT player could have? (over a large sample size, not some guy who got lucky and binked the Sunday Million)

Hmmmm good question I would say 9% - 10%.

3. What do you think the highest ITM% is that a player could have and still not be a winning player (have a -ROI)?

Around the 40% mark because even a player that just plays to min cash will sometimes make a deeper run that he expected to make, thus winning more money/buy ins.
 
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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 04:44 PM
(#15)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
A strong player's ITM percentage would be 20 22 in the micros and about half that in the mid to high stakes.With so many players giving their stacks away on obviously bad decisions in the micros you don't need to take as many risks to building your stack.

The lowest ITM in the mid to high range would likely be 5 to 6 percent. Micro players could probably be profitable in the 2 to 3 percent range

Mid to high stakes players might get ITM close to thirty percent and still be negative ROI. In the micro stakes there are enough people punting their stacks that it is hard to imagine anyone much over 20% not being profitable.

Doug


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Wed Jun 06, 2012, 05:23 PM
(#16)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
1. What do you think a strong MTT player's ITM (in the money) % should roughly be on average? 14%

2. What do you think the lowest ITM % is that a winning MTT player could have? (over a large sample size, not some guy who got lucky and binked the Sunday Million) 12%

3. What do you think the highest ITM% is that a player could have and still not be a winning player (have a -ROI)? 28%
This is what I think
 
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Fri Jun 08, 2012, 04:09 PM
(#17)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Bumped because a REAL issue,instead of the latest "it's rigged against me" whine,deserves more attention than this thread is getting.

Come on people,get your deductions/guesses in. Don't be skeered.
 
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Fri Jun 08, 2012, 05:34 PM
(#18)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Don't be skeered.
Why did my brain automatically read that in an Australian accent?

Also, will we learn the answers to this conundrum? Or will TheLangolier torment us with the "I have the answers and you'll never know" torture? am I becoming paranoid? Never mind, to busy worrying about the munchkins thieving my internetings.

Sincerely, the king of the munchkin men.
 
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Fri Jun 08, 2012, 08:37 PM
(#19)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
I look forward to the class regarding this quiz.

1) I would prefer to give a range 7% to 21% (dependent on playing style) rather than an average, so my guess at an average would be 14%.

2) Including re-buys? I would venture that a re-buy MTT specialist could hypothetically profit for as low as 5%.

3) I have no clue, but it is tragic; my guess is 38%.
 
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Sat Jun 09, 2012, 12:06 AM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by havocofsmeg View Post
Also, will we learn the answers to this conundrum? Or will TheLangolier torment us with the "I have the answers and you'll never know" torture? am I becoming paranoid? Never mind, to busy worrying about the munchkins thieving my internetings.

Sincerely, the king of the munchkin men.
Haha, no, I do have a point, and I promise I'll be sharing it.

Hoping for a little more action on this thread, and then we'll discuss.


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