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Folding an overpair II

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Folding an overpair II - Thu Jun 07, 2012, 08:03 PM
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SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
This is the continuation of my previous thread… “Folding an overpair I”

so… this brings me to a similar situation in one episode of the hand of the day by xflixx’s hand of the day videos... follow the link below
NL100 6-MAX - OVERPAIRS (XFLIXX)
Posted 12/12/2011
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...erpairs-xflixx

I know that a 3h4s5h board is pretty damn scary. You may think of a wide array of hand possibilities that beat your small pair (88), such as straight-flush draws which makes you an underdog, flush draws, straight draws, made straights, sets, or two pair. 88 is a bit better than a 2 to 1 underdog against for instance AhTh, but is folding the correct play or too weak?
What if the BB made a donk bet on the flop as he was first to act, would it be correct to call him or rr? For me this is a clear raise or fold situation. But what about calling at least one time to re-evaluate his action on the turn, after all you have position on him…. Then if you face aggression one more time and the turn card is likely to have completed a possible draw then blame the dealer and muck your hand.

Playing against an aggressive player, I would seriously consider staying in the hand as opposed to folding (but xflixx didn´t mention if his opponent was that aggressive to be capable of pulling out a bluff). Even if it’s highly likely that an overcard will come making a small pair vulnerable, I find it weak to let go of an overpair to the board without a fight. Would it be reckless to continue with this hand or weak tight to fold it in micro games/ what about in high stakes? What if the opponent is someone who knows xflixx’s tendencies and knows that he is capable of folding a small overpair or even a pair of aces if he attempts a check raise against him on that flop? Even though xflixx was in EP and showed strength throughout the hand…

I assume xflixx had a certain read that his opponent definitely had to have two pair, or a set, or a made straight, or a higher overpair. But, even though against a hand that needs to improve by the river to win such as a flush draw… despite having the probable nuts at the present moment it is hightly vulnerable, so it is best to fold it right now than to lose another dime on this hand. Xflixx is mathematically correct for mucking his small pair on the flop, for he was not a favorite against a possible flop flush draw reraise semibluff such as a hand like AThh… Good laydown!
88= 61.7% equity vs Ah10h=38.3% equity. Source: PokerStove.
When having only one pair on this board, I would consider calling my opponent’s check raise with 22, 66, or AA as I have some outs to fall back on.

What do you guys think about checking down that flop with 88 with the intention of check raising? You would sacrifice value if nobody bets, but if it works IMO that would steal any bluff plays from aggro opponents… sort of like a pre-emptive strike. If the BB made a rr, then I would pop him with a rrr, but if he then rrrraises me back again, then I wouldn’t commit any more chips, I would just let it go and think what a donk I am.

Thx for the help!
Follow the continuation of this topic in my next thread... "Folding an overpair III"
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...lding+overpair

Last edited by SUPER RASCAL; Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 08:16 PM.. Reason: link added
 

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