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Folding an overpair III

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Folding an overpair III - Thu Jun 07, 2012, 08:06 PM
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SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Folding an overpair III

this is the Cbet of my previous thread… “Folding an overpair II”

Another similar situation arose on the 2006 EPT 3 Baden, Austria. Follow the link below:
http://www.pokerstars.tv/poker-video...-vs-judah.html

PREFLOP ACTION: [blinds and antes: 4,400] Jorg Weber open raises for 6,800 (with AcJc) and Mel Judah calls the 6,800 (with 8s8h). FLOP: 4c3c7d [Pot: 18,000] Weber bets 5,000 (making the pot 23,000). Judah raises 30,000 (making the pot 53,000), Weber folds. Weber’s nut flush draw and two overcards (providing an ace or a jack is good) were a favorite to win the hand (about 55% to Judah’s 45%) but still he folded. Mathematically speaking, Judah’s protection overbet didn’t accomplish the objective of denying Weber the odds to draw (Judah would’ve been correct to create pot odds of 2.12 to 1 if he was running into an oesd or a weaker draw like two overcards. Flush draws without a straight potential such as 2c8c are still priced in and can still call Judah’s flop raise. Judah’s bet size intended to protect his overpair (to make Weber fold his hand) is hopeless in this example against AcJc, for it has more than 50% chance to improve, therefore it’ll be priced in whatever raise Judah decides to make on the flop, even by moving all in). Weber’s odds of improving his hand were 0.82 to 1. It would’ve been mathematically correct for Weber to make the 25,000 call on the flop. On the other hand, I’m concerned that the line that Judah took on the flop with his overpair on a draw heavy board contradicts what xflixx preached in that episode of the hand of the day I mentioned on my previous thread “Folding an overpair II”. I’m soooo confused! Please would somebody explain this to me, was it because they were both deepstacks and Weber didn’t want to risk a lot of chips without a made hand (dindn’t want to gamble, only play safe poker)?
Is it a reckless raise by Judah? Perhaps Weber puts Judah on a straight (5 6), or set, or even two pair, thus reducing his clean outs to improve down to 9? He might also put him on a premium pair such as JJ/QQ/KK reducing his outs to 12, or against AA reducing his outs to 9….still he would’ve been priced in with his flush draw…

IMO he’s playing too weak by folding in this great semi-bluff spot with that strong holding. Where’s his heart to the game? I think that the optimum flop play with AcJc would be a call Judah’s raise and then bet the remaining chips on the turn whatever card comes, or if calling commits you, then why not move in right there and then, putting the heat on Judah. If Weber pops Judah’s raise and moves in right on the flop, it would be a +EV play because he can win either by hitting his outs or by forcing Judah to make a tough laydown.

After an all in by Weber and a call by Judah with a hand such as (straight, overpair, two pair, set, straight flush draw, bottom pair, air )…Weber’s AcJc is still a favorite to improve by the river with 15 outs to back on (This means that 15 out of 45 unseen cards potentially help his hand, or 1/3rd of the remaining cards in the deck. *not removing dead cards that were burned by the dealer or folded by other players.). I know that when you have 21 outs to improve your hand by the river you pretty much the maximum, the absolute best possible draw that you can have in hold ‘em, but is having 15 outs with 55% equity in the hand just a flip situation at the most? IMO It’s not a total flip and Weber made a weak girlish laydown. I’d like to know what you guys think?

Thx for the help!
End of topic.
 

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