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Hands impossible to price out

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Hands impossible to price out - Thu Jun 07, 2012, 08:07 PM
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SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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Is it possible to bet enough on the flop to deny the odds of an opponent who’s drawing to 14 outs to improve (51.2% probability to hit and odds against success of 0.95 to 1) ? I find it mathematically impossible to price out anyone who is a favorite to win or is at least flipping with more than 49.9999% equity in a hand. In a nutshell, all we can do is value bet these monster draws to charge them to chase their draw, but it won’t make them fold their hand (prolly it’s even a better idea to fold your hand right now before he outdraws you by the turn or river)... Talk about making an opponent fold his 21 outer! I believe that hands with 14 outs or more are impossible to price out. Is a 13 outer still vulnerable to being priced out?

Thnx for the help fellows!
 
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Thu Jun 07, 2012, 08:26 PM
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Hi SuperRascal!

It's impossible to price out any hand with over 50% equity, as a player can never put more than this amount into the pot.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jun 08, 2012, 05:42 AM
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Am I right in thinking the most outs you can count in NL without knowing your opponents hole cards is 14? ie an open ended straight flush draw ?
 
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Fri Jun 08, 2012, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
Am I right in thinking the most outs you can count in NL without knowing your opponents hole cards is 14? ie an open ended straight flush draw ?
Hi Ovalman!

The highest I can come up with is a combo flush/OESD with 2 overs. ex: QJ spades with flop of 10 sp, 9sp, x.

I have 9 outs to the flush, three 8's, three K's, three Q's and three J's.... for 21 outs.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jun 08, 2012, 01:25 PM
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John is right, by definition "pricing out" means charging such a high price that the odds the pot are laying are worse than the hands odds to win (making a call -EV). A hand that is favorite to win can't be priced out because the call will always be +EV, in fact the more that goes in the pot the more it makes in profit over time.

Quote:
In a nutshell, all we can do is value bet these monster draws to charge them to chase their draw
if the opponent hand is the favorite to win, you are giving value, not getting it.

You might have the "made hand" right now on the flop, but if you're shoving vs. a monster draw that is favorite to win, your shove ends up being -EV since you're the underdog to win at showdown. Although it's a bit of a strange concept, essentially as the underdog hand it is YOU who is drawing (drawing to 2 blanks in this case).


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 01:28 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 09, 2012, 06:19 AM
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Since: Feb 2011
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Hi JWK, the reason I say is should you count your 3 Q's and 3 J's as outs? Top pair with an average kicker is not a strong hand and will lose as many times it will win.

I did mean 15 outs, a typo mistake (9 flush draw outs combined with 6 outs to hit the straight) .

I've never counted the extra outs to make top pair as invariably it gets me into more trouble than it's worth.

Any thoughts?
 
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Sat Jun 09, 2012, 12:26 PM
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Hi Ovalman,

It will depend on my read of the opp. Sometimes I'll count them, sometimes I won't... but you asked for the maximum number and 21 is what it can be.

John (JWK24)


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