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cant catch a break

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cant catch a break - Fri Jun 15, 2012, 11:16 AM
(#1)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
Funny , you finally make the 150VPP then have the worst run of luck ever in the league ; looks like I'll get relegated .
Sorry i forgot to convert before posting

PokerStars Hand #81981406353: Tournament #567882308, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2012/06/15 9:15:09 ET
Table '567882308 29' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: frasierbeams (1310 in chips)
Seat 2: sophie771131 (1985 in chips)
Seat 3: prost09 (4681 in chips)
Seat 4: dumsyn (2443 in chips)
Seat 5: BSTUSim (5173 in chips)
Seat 6: alberto2285 (3826 in chips)
Seat 7: yaya425 (11230 in chips)
Seat 8: Cube09 (9917 in chips)
Seat 9: ganji78 (6595 in chips)
frasierbeams: posts the ante 20
sophie771131: posts the ante 20
prost09: posts the ante 20
dumsyn: posts the ante 20
BSTUSim: posts the ante 20
alberto2285: posts the ante 20
yaya425: posts the ante 20
Cube09: posts the ante 20
ganji78: posts the ante 20
Cube09: posts small blind 100
ganji78: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to frasierbeams [Jc Js]
frasierbeams: raises 1090 to 1290 and is all-in
sophie771131: folds
prost09: folds
dumsyn: folds
BSTUSim: folds
alberto2285: folds
yaya425: folds
Cube09: folds
ganji78: calls 1090
*** FLOP *** [3d 9h Ts]
*** TURN *** [3d 9h Ts] [Ah]
*** RIVER *** [3d 9h Ts Ah] [8h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ganji78: shows [3h 3c] (three of a kind, Threes)
frasierbeams: shows [Jc Js] (a pair of Jacks)
ganji78 collected 2860 from pot
frasierbeams finished the tournament in 170th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2860 | Rake 0
Board [3d 9h Ts Ah 8h]
Seat 1: frasierbeams showed [Jc Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: sophie771131 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: prost09 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: dumsyn folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: BSTUSim folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: alberto2285 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: yaya425 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Cube09 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: ganji78 (big blind) showed [3h 3c] and won (2860) with three of a kind, Threes

This is just the latest suckout .If i posted the rest you would all get bored .

Yes this is the premier league , you should play to survive whatever , but with less than 10 BBs and my stack less than 6 times the pre flop pot I think shoving is my only option . Do i limp fold the flop , limp ,/call a raise fold the flop , limp /reraise fold on the flop , limp/reraise all in , fold , or as I did shove all in from utg ; game theory would suggest the last of these choices the is the most optimal decision .

Now , I expect to explain pocket 3s against a range of any pair and any broadway has 42.5% equity ; against any pair, any broadway ace has 37.2% equity ; against any pair has 24% equity ; against any ace has 53% equity ; any broadway has 45.8% equity; giving an average equity of 40.5% equity .Therefore calling 1090 to win 2860 is mathematically correct if this is my entire range from UTG even though it is pretty marginal IMO . Having said that 'my' range from UTG with my stack is not as broad as that given and I think the call here is not good . None-the- less i shoved , ended up getting in with the best hand and lost again ; just no luck . Maybe I should be making these kind of calls with hands as weak as 33 if i want to see my results cahnge .

Last edited by frasierbeams; Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:18 AM..
 
Old
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 11:33 AM
(#2)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I would shove those Jacks all day long.

Even with a big stack like the opp and halfway decent odds, I would not call here with 33 - you either dominate the opp with a bigger pair or have two overcards (excluding 22 or 2X) and are technically behind threes but not by much.

So 100% agree with your play here, a bit iffy about the opps call - and you just got hit with some pure bad run.

The Premier League, despite having ostensibly the same points system as the OSL, works out much differently though - and one or two deep runs can easily make up for ten early finishes.Plenty of time this month for a comeback.

Good luck

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 11:56 AM
(#3)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
I'll keep slogging away , but my run of luck or lack thereof , in all games this month , not just the league has been horrible .
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 12:05 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
The any 2 card syndrome

You're low stack, so you could be going all in with Ax or Kx, so with a PP 3's it's only costing me 1,000 chips to call.
You made the right call and I think so did he

Like Edin said, you still have time to get those points back
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 01:41 PM
(#5)
folkstix's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 55
You have to try not to focus on the outcome and should be happy to get your jacks all-in vs. pocket 3s all day long. Yeah, occasionally the villain is going to hit his outs but more often than not you're going to get the double up. I think Sand nailed it in saying that that the villain probably had you on a pretty wide shoving range and in his case he just happened to run into the top end of it and suck out.

If anything, I would try to focus on missed opportunities to chip up prior to this hand to see if there was anything I could have done differently to avoid having put myself in this shove situation to begin with.

We can't change the luck portion of the game. We can only try to improve on those aspects of the game we can control.

GL.
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 01:59 PM
(#6)
dopplerboyf5's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 149
BronzeStar
The way I would look at it is you both had the same odds of hitting your set and the villian beat you to it. Plain and simple, not a bad beat just a beat. What would you have said if it were pkt AA. You still have the same odds at hitting your set. Good play.
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 04:26 PM
(#7)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
I thought my initial post was about not catching a break , and I think I did forward his equity against certain ranges , so most of the replies are not really apposite . Really , you think the villain is calling here to try and hit a set ? ok we both have the same chance of hitting a set , but come on .

Ishall post this hand , not that I am saying this is a bad beat , or that the BBS call was bad , which it wasnt given my stack and how much was in the pot and how much he already had invested ; but just as an example of how , at the moment i cant get any luck . And before anyone asks , the reason i was short stacked was because some genius decided to call off all his chips on the turn with a gutshot when I shoved all in with top set and they hit their 4 outer .

Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 1797087
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): t365 M = 0.61
UTG+1: t3818 M = 6.36
UTG+2: t4643 M = 7.74
MP1: t6153 M = 10.26
MP2: t2090 M = 3.48
CO: t3346 M = 5.58
BTN: t5507 M = 9.18
SB: t1780 M = 2.97
BB: t13415 M = 22.36

Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is UTG with 5 :club: 5 :spade:
Hero raises to t340 all in, 7 folds, BB calls t90

Flop: (t1030) 3 :spade: 3 :diamond: 3 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t1030) 9 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t1030) Q :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

nothing wrong with this hand , just unlucky .

But I have said this before and I'll say it again the more bad decisions you make the better off you seem to be in this league . Players who are calling pot sized bets on the flop for 1 card with any sort of draw are playing bad poker and are just compounding their play when they continue to call on the turn to a similar size bet when they have missed their draw on the turn . With the exception of the 2 hands posted in this thread , every time I have been all in this month , with the best hand , I have lost to a draw . With the structure of this league it is very difficult to relase a hand like top/middle set , top 2 pair when all that can beat you is a runner runner straight or flush .

Anyways that is why I titled this thread '' cant catch a break ''
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 04:36 PM
(#8)
dopplerboyf5's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 149
BronzeStar
Well if you know what doesn't work in this league then play what you know does work.
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 04:40 PM
(#9)
dopplerboyf5's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 149
BronzeStar
You are playing a freeroll and that will atract players who don't care about stats,odds or even the two cards thier dealt. Its up to you to change your game in freerolls!
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 04:53 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Frasier!

I shove both the JJ and the 55 here, whether it's a league or a cash game. IMO you made the correct play and that's all that we can do... after that, it's up to the odds and luck.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 04:58 PM
(#11)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
Do you suggest I play like a monkey , play trash hands out of position to raises , become a calling station and chase down draws when continually taking the worst of it , play ATC etc. and hope for the best ? Sorry just cant do it .
 
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Fri Jun 15, 2012, 05:00 PM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
Do you suggest I play like a monkey , play trash hands out of position to raises , become a calling station and chase down draws when continually taking the worst of it , play ATC etc. and hope for the best ? Sorry just cant do it .
The monkeys may get lucky and be ahead in the short term.... they'll be losing players in the longterm and the overall bottom line is what matters.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 08:15 PM
(#13)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi Fraiser,

Gosh you are so unlucky.

I really feel for you dude if it wasnt for the bad luck you post here you would be winning the world series i'm sure.......
(was this what you were hoping for?)

Although may i ask why you have so few chips to start this hand?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jun 17, 2012, 07:07 AM
(#14)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
[QUOTE=Grade b;354415]Hi Fraiser,

Gosh you are so unlucky.

I really feel for you dude if it wasnt for the bad luck you post here you would be winning the world series i'm sure.......
(was this what you were hoping for?)

Although may i ask why you have so few chips to start this hand?

Grade b[/QUOTE


Greetings Grade .


I very much doubt that I or youself will ever be anywhere near the world series , let alone UKIPTs , EPTs etc. As for being short stacked ( I can only imagine this is a situation you never find yourself in ) if you are prepared to reread the last post I made in this thread hopefully that need not explaining .

What was I hoping for ? well , exactly what you have given me : another highly insightful , splendidly entertaining response .


Cheers .
 
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Sun Jun 17, 2012, 10:30 AM
(#15)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
Do you suggest I play like a monkey , play trash hands out of position to raises , become a calling station and chase down draws when continually taking the worst of it , play ATC etc. and hope for the best ? Sorry just cant do it .
I quoted the last post you made hoping it was the correct last post that you meant.

So you am i to understand you blinded down to get here. Yes its a common situation It was a topic of one of the live trainings losing with good hands - looking for leaks. And what the conclusion said was if you are always going out of tournaments with premium hand, then you probably leaked chips away someone earlier and that's why you can't survive the unlucky play when it hits. The whole point of course being to examine our play over the whole tournament rather than the final hand.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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